Publications

SSRN

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May 2012
Article

Complicated Firms

By: Lauren Cohen and Dong Lou

We exploit a novel setting in which the same piece of information affects two sets of firms: one set of firms requires straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Information; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Complexity; Mathematical Methods

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June 2020 (Revised February 2021)
Case

Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)

By: Jonas Heese, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Julia Kelley

In March 2020, as coronavirus reduced demand for air travel, an analyst was forecasting American Airlines’ (American’s) first quarter financial results. To develop a forecast, she needed to familiarize herself with Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-02, “Leases... View Details

Keywords: Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Finance; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governing and Advisory Boards; Leasing; Accounting Industry; Air Transportation Industry; North and Central America; United States

We exploit a novel setting in which the same piece of information affects two sets of firms: one set of firms requires straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into... View Details

February 2004 (Revised April 2004)
Case

Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, Inc., The

By: David F. Hawkins and Jacob Cohen

Analysts believe bankruptcy is a distinct possibility for A&P in the future. The company believes otherwise. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

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September 2024
Case

Nvidia, Inc. in 2024 and the Future of AI

By: David B. Yoffie and Sarah von Bargen

Nvidia was one of the most successful companies in the world, reaching $3.4 trillion in valuation on June 18th, 2024. While Microsoft and Apple quickly recaptured the value crown, some analysts forecasted that Nvidia was so strongly positioned that it might become the... View Details

Keywords: Customer Value and Value Chain; Price; Technological Innovation; Competition; Vertical Integration; Valuation; Technology Industry

30 Dec 2013
HBS Case

HBS Cases: What Warren Buffett Saw in Newspapers

Tribune, Media General's largest newspaper, from his bid: "In retrospect, his targeting just the smaller papers is a big clue about his forecast for the industry. Unlike regionals or big-city papers, small-town newspapers don't have... View Details

Keywords: by Deborah Blagg; Journalism & News; Publishing

12 Jul 2016
First Look

July 12, 2016

Calibrating the model to data from the Financial Accounts of the U.S., the optimal capital requirement is around 20%. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51305 Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

May 2016
Case

The Inexorable Rise of Walmart? 1988—2016

By: John R. Wells and Gabriel Ellsworth

In October 2015, Walmart surprised investors by announcing that it expected flat sales growth for 2015 and growth of only 3% to 4% over the coming three years. Profits would also fall due to significant investments in people and technology. The company’s stock price... View Details

Keywords: Asda; Costco; David Glass; Convenience Stores; Discount Retailing; Dollar Stores; Doug McMillon; E-commerce; Online Retail; General Merchandise; Grocery; Lee Scott; Mike Duke; Multichannel Retailing; Omnichannel; Neighborhood Market; Sam Walton; Sam's Club; Store Formats; Supercenter; Supermarket; Warehouse Clubs; Merchandising; Walmart; Wal-Mart; Globalized Firms and Management; Competitive Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Units; Business Divisions; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Business Organization; For-Profit Firms; Film Entertainment; Television Entertainment; Banks and Banking; Price; Profit; Revenue; Food; Global Range; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Global Strategy; Business History; Compensation and Benefits; Employees; Human Capital; Labor Unions; Wages; Business or Company Management; Goals and Objectives; Management Succession; Brands and Branding; Product Positioning; Distribution; Supply Chain; Supply Chain Management; Public Ownership; Problems and Challenges; Labor and Management Relations; Strategy; Adaptation; Business Strategy; Competition; Competitive Advantage; Diversification; Expansion; Segmentation; Information Technology; Internet; Mobile Technology; Online Technology; Web; Web Sites; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Distribution Industry; Banking Industry; United States; Arkansas; Bentonville

November 2008
Journal Article

Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Yang Gui

Since 1949 Lehman Brothers has used an investment committee to select the top ten recommendations made by its analysts each year. We examine the performance of this committee's recommendations and find that on average its selections generated abnormal returns of 2.7%... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations; Groups and Teams; Research; Value Creation

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May 2006
Case

Nokia in 2003

By: Paul M. Healy

Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations.... View Details

Keywords: Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Evaluation; Problems and Challenges; Electronics Industry

2013
Working Paper

NBC and the 2012 London Olympics: Unexpected Success

By: Stephen A. Greyser and Vadim Kogan

"The 2010 Vancouver Winter Games lost $223 million, astonishing for a 17-day event. Next year's London Summer Games, which cost a record Olympic rights fee of $1.18 billion, are expected to lose at least as much..." wrote Richard Sandomir in The New York Times. "NBC... View Details

Keywords: Success; Profit; Sports; Failure; Television Entertainment; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Sports Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Vancouver; Beijing; London; Brazil; Russia

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2010
Working Paper

Just Say No to Wall Street: Putting A Stop to the Earnings Game

By: Joseph Fuller and Michael C. Jensen

Putting an end to the "earnings game" requires that CEOs reclaim the initiative by avoiding earnings guidance and managing expectations in such a way that their stocks trade reasonably close to their intrinsic value. In place of earnings forecasts, management should... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Performance Expectations; Goals and Objectives; Risk and Uncertainty; Growth and Development Strategy; Decisions; Risk Management; Budgets and Budgeting; Earnings Management; Value; Projects

SSRN

28 Aug 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Channels of Influence

Keywords: by Lauren Cohen, Umit G. Gurun & Christopher J. Malloy

13 Apr 2010
First Look

First Look: April 13

demanding that middle- and lower-level managers redo their forecasts, plans, and budgets. In some cases, top executives simply acquiesce to increasingly unrealistic analyst forecasts and adopt them as the... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

17 Sep 2013
First Look

First Look: September 17

impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare post-choice satisfaction from choices made by mind wandering to reason based choices and randomly assigned outcomes. Participants chose a poster by mind wandering or deliberating-or were randomly assigned a... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

11 Jun 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Measurement Errors of Expected Returns Proxies and the Implied Cost of Capital

Keywords: by Charles C.Y. Wang

13 Sep 2011
First Look

First Look: September 13

are overly sympathetic to management, while still technically independent according to regulatory definitions. We explore a subset of independent directors for whom we have detailed, micro-level data on their views regarding the firm prior to being appointed to the... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

July 2005 (Revised June 2006)
Case

Ryanair Holdings plc

Examines the valuation of an Irish airline that reported its first decline in net income in 2004 and saw a 30% stock price drop on the news. Ryanair is a low-cost, low-fare airline headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, operating over 200 routes in 20 countries. The company... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; International Accounting; Analysis; Valuation; Air Transportation; Forecasting and Prediction; Finance; Air Transportation Industry; Dublin