Publications

04 Apr 2018
Op-Ed

Op-Ed: Why Private Investors Must Fund 'New Nuclear' Power Right Now

Drbouz In June 2016, I gave a TED Talk called We Need Nuclear Power to Solve Climate Change. The talk discussed the world’s realistic options for reducing fossil CO2 emissions soon enough to contain climate change’s more severe effects. To my surprise, that talk has... View Details

Keywords: by Joseph Lassiter; Energy; Green Technology

01 Aug 2001
News

Cleveland Global Alumni Conference a Sold-Out Success

billion; projections for 2001 are forecast at a whopping $215 billion. "Every company is interested in growth, but it doesn't just happen," he said, stressing the need for innovation, direct communication, and close customer contact. "Sam... View Details

Keywords: Hanna, Julia; Frank Batten (MBA '52); Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools; Educational Services

Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth

A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition

October 2007
Article

Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy

Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information

Find at Harvard

June 2018 (Revised October 2018)
Teaching Note

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (A), (B), and (C)

By: Marco Di Maggio and Benjamin C. Esty

Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 218-095, 218-096, and 218-116. View Details

2002
Other Unpublished Work

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

Forthcoming
Article

Human-Algorithm Collaboration with Private Information: Naïve Advice Weighting Behavior and Mitigation

By: Maya Balakrishnan, Kris Ferreira and Jordan Tong

Even if algorithms make better predictions than humans on average, humans may sometimes have private information which an algorithm does not have access to that can improve performance. How can we help humans effectively use and adjust recommendations made by... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Digital Marketing

May 2003
Case

Liz Claiborne, Inc.

By: Rajiv Lal, Walter J. Salmon and Edie Prescott

Discusses the business portfolio emphasis of a large multibrand manufacturer and the future of department stores as well as how relationships between manufacturers and key customers can be improved. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Brands and Branding; Production; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Apparel and Accessories Industry

10 Sep 2013
First Look

First Look: September 10

trading volume, and more dispersion in analyst forecasts following the calls. Further, the capital market's response to linguistic complexity is limited to firms for which there is greater demand for English-language conference calls. Our... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

February 1984 (Revised February 1986)
Case

E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.: Titanium Dioxide

By: W. Carl Kester, Robert R. Glauber, David W. Mullins Jr. and Stacy S. Dick

Disequilibrium in the $350 million TiO2 market has prompted Du Pont's Pigments Department to develop two strategies for competing in this market in the future. The growth strategy has a smaller internal rate of return than the alternative strategy due to large capital... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Growth and Development Strategy; Strategic Planning; Projects; Chemical Industry

Article

Traveling Agents: Political Change and Bureaucratic Turnover in India

By: Lakshmi Iyer and Anandi Mani

We develop a framework to empirically examine how politicians with electoral pressures control bureaucrats with career concerns as well as the consequences for bureaucrats' career investments. Unique micro-level data on Indian bureaucrats support our key predictions.... View Details

Keywords: Framework; Government and Politics; Investment; Competency and Skills; Personal Development and Career; Rank and Position; Forecasting and Prediction; India

Find at Harvard

January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
Background Note

Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process

By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner

Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Credit; Bonds; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry

2007
Working Paper

The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are

By: Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni and Max H. Bazerman

This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias

11 Dec 2012
First Look

First Look: Dec. 11

experience higher future growth in return-on-assets (ROA) with analysts failing to fully reflect this information in their earnings forecasts. Return prediction, growth in ROA, and analyst forecast errors are concentrated among firms with... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

12 Jul 2011
First Look

First Look: July 12

debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

October 2001 (Revised March 2002)
Background Note

Implicit Predictors of Consumer Behavior

By: Gerald Zaltman, Nancy Puccinelli, Kathryn A. Braun and Fred W Mast PHD

An important distinction is drawn in psychology between explicit and implicit knowledge. Explicit knowledge refers to consciously held beliefs about an individual or object that often draws on the remembering of experiences in the past. In contrast, implicit knowledge... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Knowledge Sharing; Consumer Behavior; Opportunities; Cognition and Thinking

September 2004
Article

Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping-generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income from... View Details

Keywords: Economy; Voting; Conflict of Interests; Capital; Government and Politics; Wages; Saving; Forecasting and Prediction

April 1991 (Revised October 1993)
Case

Cat Fight in the Pet Food Industry (A)

By: David J. Collis

Describes the pet food industry in the mid-eighties prior to the breakout of a major competitive battle as manufacturers fight for share. Illustrates how when there are benefits to play in multiple markets, competitors will take action in one market to preserve their... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Markets; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Ownership Stake; Competition; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry