Risk And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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March 24, 2020
Article

A Time to Lead with Purpose and Humanity

By: Hubert Joly

In these unprecedented times, corporate leaders are being put to the test. Many just last summer had signed the Business Roundtable Statement of Purpose that committed their companies to serving all stakeholders. The pandemic is the first test of these principles. The... View Details

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2024
Working Paper

When Insurers Exit: Climate Losses, Fragile Insurers, and Mortgage Markets

By: Ishita Sen, Pari Sastry and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva

This paper studies how homeowners insurance markets respond to growing climate losses and how this impacts mortgage market dynamics. Using Florida as a case study, we show that traditional insurers are exiting high risk areas, and new lower quality insurers are... View Details

Keywords: Insurance; Natural Disasters; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Insurance Industry; Florida

Winter 2013
Article

Corporate Governance Reform and Executive Incentives: Implications for Investments and Risk-Taking

By: Daniel Cohen, Aiyesha Dey and Thomas Lys

We investigate the mechanism through which the Sarbanes Oxley Act (SOX) was associated with changes in corporate investment strategies. We document that the passage of the governance regulations in SOX was followed by a significant decline in pay‐performance... View Details

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2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

2012
Working Paper

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks

January 2023
Case

Year Up: Measuring and Scaling Impact

By: Natalia Rigol, Benjamin N. Roth, Brian Trelstad and Sarah Mehta

Year Up, a non-profit that provides training and practical work experience to low-income young people, has for years prioritized impact measurement. By 2022, it had built a robust body of evidence demonstrating that its program yields higher earnings for participants.... View Details

Keywords: Demographics; Education; Jobs and Positions; Measurement and Metrics; Performance; Research; Social Enterprise; Growth Management; Education Industry; United States; Massachusetts; Boston

September 2023
Article

Customer Churn and Intangible Capital

By: Scott R. Baker, Brian Baugh and Marco Sammon

Intangible capital is a crucial and growing piece of firms’ capital structure, but many of its distinct components are difficult to measure. We develop and make available several new firm-level metrics regarding a key component of intangible capital – firms’ customer... View Details

Keywords: Customer Base; Transaction Data; Customer Churn; Intangible Capital; Capital Structure; Measurement and Metrics; Customers

August 2014 (Revised March 2015)
Case

Molycorp: Issuing the 'Happy Meal' Securities (B)

By: Benjamin C. Esty and E. Scott Mayfield

Molycorp, the Western hemisphere's only producer of rare earth minerals, was in the middle of a $1 billion capital expansion in its effort to become a vertically integrated supplier of rare earth minerals, oxides, and metals. After reporting lower than expected... View Details

16 Apr 2001
Research & Ideas

Strategy and the Internet

competitive advantage—by operating at a lower cost, by commanding a premium price, or by doing both. Cost and price advantages can be achieved in two ways. One is operational effectiveness—doing the same things your competitors do but... View Details

Keywords: by Michael E. Porter

June 2014
Case

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal

By: Nancy F. Koehn, Kelly McNamara, Nora N. Khan and Elizabeth Legris

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal analyzes the turnaround and reconstruction of Starbucks Coffee Company from 2008 to 2014 as led by CEO and co-founder Howard Schultz. The case offers executives and students an opportunity to examine in depth how... View Details

17 Apr 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Technology Choice and Capacity Portfolios Under Emissions Regulation

Keywords: by David Drake, Paul R. Kleindorfer & Luk N. Van Wassenhove

July 2023
Case

HealthVerity: Real World Data and Evidence

By: Satish Tadikonda

Andrew Kress (CEO and founder) and his team had built a promising marketplace business at HealthVerity serving its core market in healthcare, with a focus on pharmaceutical R&D and services. Thus far, HealthVerity’s products had been unique to the pharma and pharma... View Details

Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Product Marketing

1999
Chapter

The Pricing of US Catastrophe Reinsurance

By: K. Froot and P. O'Connell

Keywords: Financial Markets; Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Cost Of Capital; Banking And Insurance; Asset Pricing; Hedging; Banking; Insurance; Natural Disasters; Policy; Risk Management; Insurance Industry; United States

Article

Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?

By: Janet Gao, Kristoph Kleiner and Joseph Pacelli

We examine whether bankers face disciplining consequences for structuring poorly performing corporate loans. We construct a novel data set containing the employment histories and loan portfolios of a large sample of corporate bankers and find that corporate credit... View Details

Keywords: Syndicated Loans; Credit Events; Career Outcomes; Loan Officers; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Risk Management; Corporate Finance; Personal Development and Career

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April 2011
Supplement

Felipe Calderón: Leading with Light and Power (B)

By: J. Bruce Harreld and David Lane

This sequence of cases explores how leaders get their team focused on framing, analyzing, and ultimately acting upon complex decisions. The A case provides an inside look as President of Mexico, Felipe Calderon, works with his cabinet ministers to decide how to... View Details

Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cases; Crime and Corruption; State Ownership; Business or Company Management; Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Finance; Performance; Management Teams; Strategic Planning; Energy Industry; Mexico City

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24 Jul 2000
Research & Ideas

Value Maximization and Stakeholder Theory

of decisions regarding any of a firm's constituencies. The world may be complex and difficult to understand. It may leave us in deep uncertainty about the effects of any decisions we may make. It may be... View Details

Keywords: by Michael C. Jensen

April–May 2021
Article

Labor Mobility and Antitakeover Provisions

By: Aiyesha Dey and Joshua White

How do firms protect their human capital? We test whether firms facing an increased threat of being acquired strengthen their antitakeover provisions (ATPs) in order to bond with their employees. We use the adoption of the Inevitable Disclosure Doctrine (IDD) by U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Labor Mobility; Antitakeover Provisions; Trade Secrets; Implicit Contracting; Employee Bonding; Corporate Governance; Acquisition; Human Capital; Strategy; Innovation and Invention; Intellectual Property; Safety

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June 2014
Article

Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Funds

By: Sergey Chernenko and Adi Sunderam

We document the consequences of money market fund risk taking during the European sovereign debt crisis. Using a novel data set of security-level holdings of prime money market funds, we show that funds with large exposures to risky Eurozone banks suffered significant... View Details

Keywords: Money Market Mutual Funds; European Sovereign Debt Crisis; Runs; Contagion; Risk Taking; Investment Funds; Financial Crisis; Europe

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September 2021
Article

Trials and Terminations: Learning from Competitors' R&D Failures

By: Joshua L. Krieger

I analyze project continuation decisions where firms may resolve uncertainty through news about competitors' research and development (R&D) failures, as well as through their own results. I examine the trade-offs and interactions between product-market competition and... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Projects; Failure; Decision Making; Learning

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20 Feb 2019
News

Harvard Business School Online Announces Two New Courses, Leadership Principles and Global Business

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