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      • Article

      On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

      By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson
      Keywords: Investment; Performance; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Merton, Robert C., and Roy D. Henriksson. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills." Journal of Business 54, no. 4 (October 1981): 513–533.
      • July 1981
      • Article

      On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

      By: Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Investment; Performance; Theory; Value; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets
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      Merton, Robert C. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts." Journal of Business 54, no. 3 (July 1981): 363–406.
      • May 1981 (Revised June 1994)
      • Case

      Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)." Harvard Business School Case 181-122, May 1981. (Revised June 1994.)
      • May 1981
      • Supplement

      Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (B)

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 181-123, May 1981.
      • March 1980 (Revised February 1987)
      • Case

      Sweco, Inc. (A)

      By: Michael E. Porter and George S. Yip
      Describes Sweco's decision about whether to enter the mud-processing equipment industry (used in oil well drilling). This is an internal entry decision, and the case describes Sweco's existing businesses as well as the mud-processing industry and competitors. The case... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Analytics and Data Science; Market Entry and Exit; Competition
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      Porter, Michael E., and George S. Yip. "Sweco, Inc. (A)." Harvard Business School Case 380-167, March 1980. (Revised February 1987.)
      • January 1980 (Revised April 1994)
      • Case

      New Balance Athletic Shoes

      By: Kim B. Clark
      Faced with growth exceeding 100% per year, James Davis, president of New Balance, must decide how to meet the need for additional capacity. Several factors contribute to a climate of extreme uncertainty. Several options are considered, ranging from a second shift to... View Details
      Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Information; Growth Management; Organizational Design; Performance Capacity; Risk and Uncertainty; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Republic of Ireland
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      Clark, Kim B. "New Balance Athletic Shoes." Harvard Business School Case 680-110, January 1980. (Revised April 1994.)
      • May 1979 (Revised August 2013)
      • Background Note

      Financial Analysis of Real Property Investments

      By: William J. Poorvu
      Develops a conceptual framework for financial analysis of real estate investments, taking into consideration the necessity for baseline data, project trends, and forecast discontinuities. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Trends; Real Estate Industry; Financial Services Industry
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      Poorvu, William J. "Financial Analysis of Real Property Investments." Harvard Business School Background Note 379-193, May 1979. (Revised August 2013.)
      • February 1978
      • Case

      Sierra Log Homes, Inc. (A)

      By: Michael E. Porter
      Describes the history and evolution of the log home manufacturing industry, a rapidly growing embryonic industry capitalizing on the back-to-basics lifestyle changes in the United States. Focuses on one of the leading firms in the industry, but allows a discussion of... View Details
      Keywords: Business or Company Management; Change Management; Industry Structures; Supply and Industry; Problems and Challenges; Business Startups; Business Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; United States
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      Porter, Michael E. "Sierra Log Homes, Inc. (A)." Harvard Business School Case 378-195, February 1978.
      • January 1978
      • Background Note

      Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package." Harvard Business School Background Note 178-095, January 1978.
      • January 1977 (Revised July 1985)
      • Case

      Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)

      By: Steven C. Wheelwright
      Keywords: Planning; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Wheelwright, Steven C. "Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)." Harvard Business School Case 677-150, January 1977. (Revised July 1985.)
      • 01 Jan 1977
      • Conference Presentation

      Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data

      By: James K. Sebenius and Richard Lehman
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Research; Business and Government Relations; Energy Industry
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      Sebenius, James K., and Richard Lehman. "Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data." Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, American Geophysical Union, January 01, 1977.
      • October 1976
      • Background Note

      Industry Structural Change

      By: Michael E. Porter
      Presents a framework for understanding and predicting industry structural change. Examines 1) the important underlying forces causing structural change, 2) the key relationships among industry elements in the process of change, and 3) some implications of change for... View Details
      Keywords: Framework; Industry Structures; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Structure; Strategy; Corporate Strategy
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      Porter, Michael E. "Industry Structural Change." Harvard Business School Background Note 377-051, October 1976.
      • November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
      • Case

      Science Technology Co.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details
      Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co." Harvard Business School Case 275-058, November 1974. (Revised May 1994.)
      • January 1972
      • Background Note

      Note on Forecasting

      By: Paul W. Marshall
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Marshall, Paul W. "Note on Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 172-218, January 1972.
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces

      By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton
      It has long been a mantra of marketing practice that, particularly in low-involvement situations, spokespeople should be physically attractive. This paper suggests there is a higher probability of gaining fame and influence (i.e., celebrity potential) than is captured... View Details
      Keywords: Personal Characteristics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing
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      Feng, Flora, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan, and Cait Lamberton. "An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) (forthcoming). (Pre-published online February 12, 2025.)
      • 2023
      • Chapter

      Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making

      By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
      BOOK ABSTRACT: Oriented toward the introductory student, The Inequality Reader is the essential textbook for today's undergraduate courses. The editors have assembled the most important classic and contemporary readings about how poverty and inequality are... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality
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      Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making." In The Inequality Reader: Contemporary and Foundational Readings in Race, Class, and Gender. 3rd edition, edited by David B. Grusky and Szonja Szelényi. Routledge, forthcoming.
      • Research Summary

      Conceptualizing and measuring environmental sustainability

      By: Michael W. Toffel
      This research involves developing clarity around the murky construct of environmental sustainability, and improving techniques to measure corporate environmental performance. My prior research in this domain includes View Details
      • Research Summary

      Customer-Centricity as a Vehicle for Organic Growth

      By: Ranjay Gulati
      This body of work examines the mechanics of how firms grow profitably in commoditizing markets. Underlying the "customer-centricity" that many firms embrace today is a factor that will determine their success with this effort: enabling collaboration across... View Details
      • Research Summary

      Entrepreneurial Management

      By: Howard H. Stevenson
      Howard H. Stevenson is researching and writing on the need for and consequences of predictability. In work designed for a managerial audience, he is examining the roles played by organizations, cultures, and ethical systems in enabling individuals to predict the... View Details
      • Teaching Interest

      Executive Education: Finance for Senior Executives

      By: Malcolm P. Baker

      Finance for Senior Executives provides the frameworks to strategically use financial resources and position your company for future success. By examining corporate finance from both internal and external perspectives, this HBS Executive Education View Details

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