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Article

Traveling Agents: Political Change and Bureaucratic Turnover in India

By: Lakshmi Iyer and Anandi Mani

We develop a framework to empirically examine how politicians with electoral pressures control bureaucrats with career concerns as well as the consequences for bureaucrats' career investments. Unique micro-level data on Indian bureaucrats support our key predictions.... View Details

Keywords: Framework; Government and Politics; Investment; Competency and Skills; Personal Development and Career; Rank and Position; Forecasting and Prediction; India

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January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
Background Note

Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process

By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner

Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Credit; Bonds; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry

2007
Working Paper

The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are

By: Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni and Max H. Bazerman

This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias

01 Sep 2017
News

Is Private Equity Blockchain’s Killer App?

Review and Deloitte provide insight on how industries and companies could use blockchain tech to their best advantage. To learn more about the forecasted growth of blockchain, take a look at the Statista database within the eBaker alumni... View Details

Keywords: Dan Morrell

Article

Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim and Greg Barron

Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result

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January 2010
Journal Article

A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere

Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition

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2017
Working Paper

Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers

By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt

Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and... View Details

Keywords: Fund Managers; Experience and Expertise; Performance; Forecasting and Prediction

September 2021 (Revised December 2021)
Case

Spire, the CubeSat Revolution, and the Government as a Space Data Customer

By: Matthew Weinzierl, Mehak Sarang and Brendan L. Rosseau

This case outlines the rise of Spire Global, a young space company using CubeSats to provide weather data and weather prediction services. In addition to tracing the evolution of a space startup from novel idea to publicly-traded company, the case also examines the... View Details

Keywords: Space; Government Contracting; Remote Sensing; Satellites; Business Startups; Public Sector; Cost vs Benefits; Competition; Weather; Forecasting and Prediction

28 May 2013
Research & Ideas

Can LEGO Snap Together a Future in Asia?

Both the managers and the students had to consider areas of potential risk for LEGO in Asia, including: Uncertainty of market growth forecasts. LEGO senior director John Kelley argues in the case that to supply the most optimistic sales View Details

Keywords: by Kim Girard; Entertainment & Recreation

01 Sep 2020
News

Saving Grace

customer base and are its fastest-growing segment. People assume that it’s mostly millennials who have the desire and savvy to manage their finances by mobile app, Savova says, but “we’ve found that people of all ages want easy ways to contribute, to invest more... View Details

Keywords: Jen McFarland Flint

January 2025
Case

North Forty: Managing Liquidity Through Change

By: Luis M. Viceira and Brad Towne

This case explores the interaction between spending and investment decisions at a family office, specifically the family office of Jeff and Tricia Raikes, with special emphasis on the management of spending, portfolio investments, and asset liquidity in the presence of... View Details

Keywords: Family Office; Forecasting and Prediction; Asset Management; Financial Liquidity; Financial Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Spending; Planning

February 2002 (Revised March 2003)
Case

Casuarinas Educational Corporation

By: Michael J. Roberts, Howard H. Stevenson and Matthew C. Leib

Casuarinas has developed a very successful elementary, now secondary, school based on excellence in teaching, service, and multilingual education. Peru lacks similar high-quality post-secondary institutions. This case focuses on the potential entry of Casuarinas into... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Higher Education; Entrepreneurship; Management; Market Entry and Exit; Planning; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Education Industry; Peru

24 Jan 2012
First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

August 2015 (Revised January 2017)
Technical Note

From Correlation to Causation

By: Feng Zhu and Karim R. Lakhani

To make sound business decisions, managers must be comfortable with the concepts of correlation and causation. This background note provides an overview of correlation and causation using examples and explains why the former does not imply the latter. It also describes... View Details

Keywords: Statistics; Regression; Data Analytics; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Judgments

January 2011
Article

Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities

By: Derek Koehler, Rebecca White and Leslie K. John

Self-predictions are highly sensitive to current intentions but often largely insensitive to factors influencing the readiness with which those intentions are translated into future behavior. When such factors are under a person's control, they could be used to... View Details

Keywords: Planning; Saving; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

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February 2004 (Revised April 2004)
Case

Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, Inc., The

By: David F. Hawkins and Jacob Cohen

Analysts believe bankruptcy is a distinct possibility for A&P in the future. The company believes otherwise. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

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October 2001 (Revised March 2002)
Background Note

Implicit Predictors of Consumer Behavior

By: Gerald Zaltman, Nancy Puccinelli, Kathryn A. Braun and Fred W Mast PHD

An important distinction is drawn in psychology between explicit and implicit knowledge. Explicit knowledge refers to consciously held beliefs about an individual or object that often draws on the remembering of experiences in the past. In contrast, implicit knowledge... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Knowledge Sharing; Consumer Behavior; Opportunities; Cognition and Thinking

September 2004
Article

Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping-generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income from... View Details

Keywords: Economy; Voting; Conflict of Interests; Capital; Government and Politics; Wages; Saving; Forecasting and Prediction

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April 1991 (Revised October 1993)
Case

Cat Fight in the Pet Food Industry (A)

By: David J. Collis

Describes the pet food industry in the mid-eighties prior to the breakout of a major competitive battle as manufacturers fight for share. Illustrates how when there are benefits to play in multiple markets, competitors will take action in one market to preserve their... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Markets; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Ownership Stake; Competition; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry

April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers

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