Publications

SSRN

December 2002
Article

The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows

By: K. A. Froot and J. Donohue

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Financial Services Industry

15 Sep 2016
Research & Ideas

Political Dysfunction Makes America Less Competitive

system, transportation infrastructure, and healthcare. Business leaders have grown increasingly pessimistic and aren’t expecting much of an uptick in the near future. Fifty percent of those surveyed expect US competitiveness to decline in the next three years, while... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

Read Now

June 1998
Supplement

MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998

By: Carin-Isabel Knoop

Drummond Paris, Regional Pharma Head, Asia/Pacific Novartis AG, discusses the company situation in Indonesia: joint ventures, budget, keeping track, and the prognosis for the future. View Details

Keywords: Business or Company Management; Joint Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Pharmaceutical Industry; Indonesia

May 2024
Article

Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others

By: Rachel Ruttan, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli and Katherine DeCelles

Existing work on attribution theory distinguishes between external and internal attributions (i.e., “I overcame adversity due to luck” vs. “my own effort”). We introduce the construct of relational resilience attributions (i.e., “due to help from other people”) as a... View Details

Keywords: Personal Characteristics; Forecasting and Prediction; Attitudes; Behavior

October 2024
Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester

Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

January 2021
Article

Using Models to Persuade

By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam

We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model... View Details

Keywords: Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework

Read Now

August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods

Educators

February 2018
Supplement

People Analytics at Teach For America (B)

By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley

This is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. In this supplement, Managing Director Michael Metzger must decide how to extend his team’s predictive analytics work using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Recruitment; Analysis

12 Feb 2013
First Look

First Look: Feb. 12

strategy-i.e., declare plans to pursue the new product opportunity even when it may have no development intentions-when its market forecasting capabilities are weak and the demand-side benefits from preannouncing are small. By contrast,... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

25 Nov 2008
First Look

First Look: November 25, 2008

introducing retail inventory management, including cost optimization, service-level criteria, and forecasting in single and multiproduct settings. The owner of a single-location paper and paper products store considers the implications of... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

24 Sep 2014
Op-Ed

We Need a Miracle. New Nuclear Might Provide it.

On September 4, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) published its 2014 International Energy Outlook. Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest World Energy Investment Outlook. Both watchdogs tell us the same story. Energy... View Details

Keywords: by Joseph Lassiter; Energy; Utilities

August 2001 (Revised May 2002)
Case

Worldzap

By: Rohit Deshpande, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Suma Raju and David Kiron

In February 2001, the CEO of a new technology start-up had to decide how to present his firm's value proposition to future clients, customers, and business partners. The technology allowed distribution of full-motion video clips of sports highlights to "third... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Information Technology; Marketing Strategy; Distribution; Technology Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Value Creation; Information Technology Industry; Sports Industry; Europe

Educators

24 Aug 2020
Blog Post

My Journey to Joining the first MS/MBA Biotechnology: Life Sciences Cohort

forecasting expected revenues, to developing an equity investing plan for a major pharmaceutical company and performing due diligence on M&A targets. I also spent four months on secondment within a pharma company's Commercial Oncology... View Details

Web

Entrepreneurial Sales 102: Building, Managing, and Scaling the First Sales Team as a Founder, Investor, or Advisor - Course Catalog

salesperson Train, manage, promote, and fire your first sales team Establish your first sales plan Manage the board’s expectations on revenue Instrument an accurate forecasting model “Superior sales and distribution by itself can create a... View Details

01 Dec 2007
News

Learning to Lead

Authored by Assistant Professors Boris Groysberg and Chris Marquis, the case is taught in the first-year course Leadership and Organizational Behavior (LEAD). After just a few days on the job, Keller (MBA ’05) is taken off one project and thrown into another involving... View Details

Keywords: Julia Hanna; Management

April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers