Publications

Article

On the Political Economy of Temporary Stabilization Programs

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper provides a political economy explanation for temporary exchange-rate-based stabilization programs by focusing on the distributional effects of real exchange-rate appreciation. I propose an economy in which agents are endowed with either tradable or... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Economy; Balance and Stability; Programs; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash; Value; Distribution

Article

Variance-Minimizing Monetary Policies with Lagged Price Adjustment and Rational Expectations

By: Jerry R. Green and Seppo Honkapohja

This paper considers a macroeconomic model with rational expectations in which prices are incompletely flexible. Markets therefore fail to clear. In such a model monetary policy is not neutral. The variance of real and nominal quantities and interest rates is sensitive... View Details

Article

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details

Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States

April 2008 (Revised December 2008)
Case

North Goes East

By: Nicolas P. Retsinas, Daniela Beyersdorfer and Elena Corsi

In August 2006, Magnus Lofgren and Robert Provine, managing directors and co-founders of the "North Real Estate Opportunities Fund," need to decide which real estate investment the Fund should pursue as its first project. The Fund's target region, Central and Eastern... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Investment Funds; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Opportunities; Real Estate Industry; Europe

25 Aug 2015
News

Sunset in the East?

Illustration by Daniel Bejar The Chinese economy seems to have finally hit the brakes. Thanks to stalling real estate and export markets, this year China reported first and second quarter growth rates of 7 percent—its lowest numbers in six years. We asked Professor... View Details

Keywords: Administration of Economic Programs; Government; Real Estate; Health, Social Assistance

Research Summary

On the Political Economy of Stabilization Programs

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper provides a political economy explanation for temporary exchange-rate-based stabilization programs by focusing on the distributional effects of real exchange-rate appreciation. I propose an economy in which agents are endowed with either tradable or... View Details

08 Aug 2011
News

Why Management System Standards Add Value, Part 2: Evidence that sets the record straight

2024
Working Paper

Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Perception; Government Administration

25 Aug 2015
News

What To Expect From The Economic Deceleration In China

31 Jul 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Learning from Double-Digit Growth Experiences

Keywords: by Eric D. Werker

2008
Working Paper

Financial Development, Bank Ownership, and Growth. Or, Does Quantity Imply Quality?

By: Shawn A. Cole

In 1980, India nationalized its large private banks. This induced different bank ownership patterns across different towns, allowing credible identification of the effects of bank ownership on financial development, lending rates, and the quality of intermediation, as... View Details

Keywords: Economic Growth; Credit; Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; State Ownership; Private Ownership; Banking Industry; India

Alberto Cavallo is the Thomas S. Murphy Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, where he teaches in the Business, Government, and the International Economy (BGIE) unit, a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a... View Details

March 1992 (Revised December 1992)
Case

Harley-Davidson, Inc.--1987

By: W. Carl Kester and Julia Morley

After an LBO and near bankruptcy in the early 1980s, Harley-Davidson makes an astonishing recovery, going public in 1986. Its listing on the New York Stock Exchange in 1987 provides the occasion of an equity analyst to publish a research report in which she must issue... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Currency Exchange Rate; Reports; Crisis Management; Going Public; Research; Competition; Auto Industry; Japan; New York (city, NY)

November 9, 2019
Article

Effect of Revealing Authors' Conflicts of Interests in Peer Review: Randomized Controlled Trial

By: Leslie K. John, George Loewenstein, Andrew Marder and Michael Callaham

Objective: To assess the impact of disclosing authors’ conflict of interest declarations to peer reviewers at a medical journal.
Design: Randomised controlled trial.

Setting: The study was conducted within the manuscript review process at the... View Details

Keywords: Conflicts Of Interest; Peer Review; Randomized Controlled Trial; Scientific Publication; Conflict of Interests; Journals and Magazines; Science

November 2017
Article

Credit-Induced Boom and Bust

By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

Can a credit expansion induce a boom and bust in house prices and real economic activity? This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy.... View Details

Keywords: Great Recession; Subprime; Credit Supply; Credit Expansion; Household Leverage; Household Debt; Preemption Rule; Mortgages; Laws and Statutes; Credit; Household; Borrowing and Debt; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation

SSRN

May 2020
Article

How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel

By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Christopher Palmer

We document the transmission of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to the real economy using rich borrower-linked mortgage-market data and an identification strategy based on mortgage market segmentation. We find that central bank QE1 MBS purchases... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; MBS; Quantitative Easing; LSAP; Refinancing; Deleveraging; HARP; GSE; Central Banking; Global Range; Financing and Loans; Credit; United States

SSRN

24 Oct 2011
Research & Ideas

The Yelp Factor: Are Consumer Reviews Good for Business?

thing? If the ratings are capturing real quality, then that's a force for good. To the extent that there is gaming or nonrepresentative views, that's a problem. The onus is on the review industry to change... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Food & Beverage

2018
Working Paper

Corporate Tax Cuts Increase Income Inequality

By: Suresh Nallareddy, Ethan Rouen and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato

This paper studies the effects of corporate tax changes on income inequality. Using state corporate tax rate changes as a setting, we show that cutting state corporate tax rates leads to increases in income inequality. This result is robust to using regression and... View Details

Keywords: Business Ventures; Taxation; Income; Equality and Inequality; United States

SSRN

April 1999 (Revised June 1999)
Case

1-800 Buy Ireland

By: Willis M. Emmons III, Adele S. Cooper and J. Richard Lenane

After decades of poor economic performance, the Irish government adopted major changes in economic policy in 1987. By the end of the 1990s, Ireland's real GDP growth rate of almost 10% per year exceeds that of all member nations of the European Union (EU). A key... View Details

Keywords: Integration; Development Economics; Supply and Industry; Policy; Foreign Direct Investment; Growth and Development Strategy; Macroeconomics; Republic of Ireland