Publications
Publications
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(633)
- Faculty Publications (163)
- July 2017
- Article
Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in... View Details
- 2018
- Working Paper
Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country... View Details
- Article
How to Make the Other Side Play Fair: The Final-Offer Arbitration Challenge Gives Negotiators a Valuable New Tool
By: Max H. Bazerman and Daniel Kahneman
In legal disputes, contested insurance claims, and similarly adversarial negotiations, one party is likely to open with an inflated claim or a lowball offer. And if the other side’s position is unreasonable, it may make little sense to be reasonable yourself. But if... View Details
- May 2016
- Supplement
2016 Update: Argentina Turns the Page
By: David E. Bell, Forest Reinhardt and Natalie Kindred
This brief case is a supplement to “Cresud and Argentina” (515-043) and “Note on Agriculture in Argentina” (515-069). Set in early 2016, it describes developments in Argentina under newly elected President Mauricio Macri, including the country’s return to international... View Details
Keywords: Argentina; ＂ Cresud; Agriculture; Economic Reform; Economic Policy; Land Investment; Macri; Currency; Agribusiness; Diversification; Economy; Emerging Markets; Credit; Currency Exchange Rate; Investment; Business and Government Relations; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Trade; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Argentina; Buenos Aires; South America
- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
- Spring 2016
- Article
The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Inflation Measurement and Research
By: Alberto Cavallo and Roberto Rigobon
New data-gathering techniques, often referred to as “Big Data” have the potential to improve statistics and empirical research in economics. In this paper we describe our work with online data at the Billion Prices Project at MIT and discuss key lessons for both... View Details
- 2016
- Chapter
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
- Article
How Beliefs about Self-creation Inflate Value in the Human Brain
By: Raphael Koster, Tali Sharot, Rachel Yuan, Benedetto De Martino, Michael I. Norton and Raymond J. Dolan
Humans have a tendency to overvalue their own ideas and creations. Understanding how these errors in judgement emerge is important for explaining suboptimal decisions, as when individuals and groups choose self-created alternatives over superior or equal ones. We show... View Details
- August 19, 2015
- Article
The Slow Decay and Quick Revival of Self-deception
By: Zoe Chance, Francesca Gino, Michael I. Norton and Dan Ariely
People demonstrate an impressive ability to self-deceive, distorting misbehavior to reflect positively on themselves—for example, by cheating on a test and believing that their inflated performance reflects their true ability. But what happens to self-deception when... View Details
- July 2015
- Teaching Note
Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015
By: Rafael Di Tella
- July–August 2015
- Article
The Secret of Singapore: Why Cuba Should Look to Lee Kuan Yew's Thriving City-State for Economic Inspiration
By: Debora L. Spar
Between 1965 and 1991, Singapore grew at an astonishing compound annual growth rate of nearly 14%. Critics of the island's performance accused its celebrated leader, Lee Kuan Yew, of thinly veiled tendencies toward communism and authoritarianism; they argued that the... View Details
- April 2015
- Tutorial
Introduction to International Macroeconomics
By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This tutorial is a web-based, interactive program which will provide students with an introduction to the basic principles of macroeconomics and international macroeconomics. View Details
- April 2015
- Teaching Note
International Macroeconomics — An Online Tutorial
By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the Teaching Note to accompany "International Macroeconomics", HBS Tutorial 715-702. View Details
- March–April 2015
- Article
The Almighty Ruble
By: Debora L. Spar
At 1 AM Moscow time on December 16, Russia's central bank announced a massive hike in the country's interest rate, from 10.5% to 17%. It's not clear how Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his colleagues could realistically have expected to achieve anything by hiking the... View Details
- October 2014 (Revised February 2017)
- Case
A Currency We Can Call Our Own: Populism, Banking Crises, and Exchange Rate Crises in Argentina, 1946–2002
By: Rafael Di Tella
The case describes Argentina's struggle to establish a credible monetary system under populist pressures and the recurrent use of exchange rate stabilization plans. It focuses on two episodes where there was "too little money" in the economy: during the hyperinflation... View Details
- September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
- Case
The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity
By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White
After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details
Keywords: United Kingdom; Keynesian Multiplier; Inflation; Inflation Targeting; Government Spending; Government Intervention In The Markets; Monetary Policy; Financial Crisis Management; Austerity; Inequality; Public Finance; Government Finance; Macroeconomics; Economics; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Business Cycles; Welfare; United Kingdom
- August 2014
- Article
What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Stephen P. Zeldes
We conduct and analyze two large surveys of hypothetical annuitization choices. We find that allowing individuals to annuitize a fraction of their wealth increases annuitization relative to a situation where annuitization is an "all or nothing" decision. Very few... View Details
- March 2014 (Revised September 2019)
- Teaching Note
Say on Pay: Qualcomm, Inc. Shareholders Vote 'Maybe'
By: Suraj Srinivasan and Charles C.Y. Wang
This case centers around Qualcomm shareholders' 2012 Say-on-Pay vote and the dispute between the Institutional Shareholder Services and management regarding the appropriateness of the CEO's compensation plan. Was ISS right that Qualcomm CEO's pay was inflated and... View Details
- 2013
- Working Paper
Separating Homophily and Peer Influence with Latent Space
By: Joseph P. Davin, Sunil Gupta and Mikolaj Jan Piskorski
We study the impact of peer behavior on the adoption of mobile apps in a social network. To identify social influence properly, we introduce latent space as an approach to control for latent homophily, the idea that "birds of a feather flock together." In a series of... View Details
- December 2013 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015
By: Rafael Di Tella and Fernanda Miguel
In late October 2011, after losing 1 billion of dollar reserves in one month, the Argentine government began imposing a series of currency controls, limiting the ability to buy foreign currency. As of October 2011, Argentina's tax collection agency AFIP had been... View Details