Publications

April 2017 (Revised February 2020)
Case

Restructuring Ukraine

By: Kristin Mugford, Seema Amble and Tian Feng

In June 2015, Ukraine found itself struggling with a volatile and devalued currency, dramatically diminished foreign reserves, and a projected financing shortfall of $40 billion. Ukraine’s new government sought to return the nation to stability following political... View Details

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Politics; Macroeconomics; Financial Crisis; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Restructuring; Economy; Currency Exchange Rate; Banks and Banking; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Bonds; Sovereign Finance; Capital Markets; Credit; Debt Securities; Financial Liquidity; Financial Markets; Government and Politics; Ukraine

Article

Exchange-rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach

By: K. A. Froot and M. Obstfeld

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing

March 2004 (Revised May 2005)
Case

Foreign Exchange Hedging Strategies at General Motors

By: Mihir A. Desai and Mark Veblen

How should a multinational firm manage foreign exchange exposures? Examines transactional, translational, and competitive exposures. Describes General Motors' corporate hedging policies, its risk management structure, and how accounting rules impact hedging decisions.... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Multinational Firms and Management; Currency Exchange Rate; Investment; Financial Markets; Manufacturing Industry; Auto Industry; Argentina; Japan; Canada; United States

Article

Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy

By: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang

We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not... View Details

Keywords: Trade Policy; Tariffs; Exchange Rate Passthrough; Economics; Trade; Policy; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; United States

March 2006 (Revised November 2006)
Case

China: To Float or Not To Float? (D)- Bank of America's Strategic Investment in China Construction Bank

By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel

With its $3 billion investment in Chinese state bank China Construction Bank, Bank of America--the second U.S. bank behind Citigroup in terms of assets and market capitalization--was one of several foreign banks directly participating in China's banking sector reform.... View Details

Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate; Banks and Banking; Foreign Direct Investment; International Relations; Banking Industry; China; United States

Article

The Price Impact of Joining a Currency Union: Evidence from Latvia

By: Alberto Cavallo, Brent Neiman and Roberto Rigobon

Does membership in a currency union matter for a country’s international relative prices? The answer to this question is critical for thinking about the implications of joining (or exiting) a common currency area. This paper is the first to use high-frequency... View Details

Keywords: Currency Union; Exchange Rate; Law Of One Price; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; Latvia

June 2005
Article

Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional Investor Flows

By: K. A. Froot and T. Ramadorai

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Purchasing Power Parity; Real Exchange Rate; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Asset Pricing; Financial Services Industry

Research Summary

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity

By: Laura Alfaro

We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details

October 2005
Teaching Note

Foreign Exchange Markets and Transactions (TN)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs

Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate

1987
Working Paper

Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

By: K. A. Froot

Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over... View Details

Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Volatility

31 Aug 2009
Research & Ideas

Why Competition May Not Improve Credit Rating Agencies

The largest issue is how to assign ratings tasks to firms. There are currently 10 nationally recognized statistical ratings organizations (NRSROs), which is the classification used by the Securities and... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Financial Services

October 2013
Teaching Note

Switzerland: Foreign Pressure and Direct Democracy

By: Julio J. Rotemberg

Keywords: Foreign Exchange Intervention; Exchange Rates; European Union; Exchange Rate Management; Bank Secrecy; Corporate Governance; International Relations; Corporate Accountability; Switzerland; Europe

January – March 2012
Article

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Luis M. Viceira

This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks

August 1995 (Revised October 1996)
Case

Futures on the Mexican Peso

By: Kenneth A. Froot, Matthew McBrady and Mark Seasholes

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange needs to decide how to design, and whether and when to introduce, a futures contract on the Mexican peso. View Details

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Money Markets; Futures Market; Country Analysis; International Finance; Financial Markets; Futures and Commodity Futures; Financial Services Industry; Chicago; Mexico