Publications

Educators

01 Oct 2001
News

HBS Press Books in Brief

believes the key to making better strategic choices in turbulent markets lies in understanding the level of uncertainty faced in a given situation. 20/20 Foresight provides a framework for learning to separate what can be known from what... View Details

Keywords: Publishing Industries (except Internet); Information; Management; Finance

02 Mar 2018
Op-Ed

Op-Ed: Trump’s Tariffs Could Harm Allies as Much as Opponents

investors perceive as a move that will have more disadvantages than benefits for the economy as a whole. Uncertainty ahead More broadly, Trump’s actions pave the way for much uncertainty ahead, since the... View Details

Keywords: by Dante Roscini; Steel; Manufacturing

01 Oct 2002
News

A Change of Life

uncertainties of the weeks that followed. “I had this terrible need to feel like I was fixing something,” Waldron revealed. Last March, he accepted the president and CEO position at Jumpstart, where he earns one-third of what he made at... View Details

10 Dec 2015
Working Paper Summaries

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

Keywords: by Emil N. Siriwardane; Financial Services; Banking

May 2025
Article

Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs

By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,... View Details

Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking

Read Now

25 Oct 2006
Op-Ed

Fixing Executive Options: The Veil of Ignorance

insight was that the fair solution could be determined by creating uncertainty about the position the person choosing the outcome would find him- or herself in. In short, the person cutting the cake has to decide the size of the slices... View Details

Keywords: by Mihir Desai & Joshua Margolis

June 1998
Case

PDVSA & CITGO: Plans for Transformation

By: Ashish Nanda

Supplements PDVSA & CITGO: Seeking Stability in an Uncertain World. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Balance and Stability

April 1995 (Revised May 1995)
Teaching Note

Exercises on the Value of Information (TN)

By: David E. Bell

Teaching Note for (9-893-006). View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Information; Risk and Uncertainty

2003
Other Unpublished Work

Short Selling in Practice--Intermediating Uncertain Share Availability

By: Gene M D'Avolio and André Perold

Keywords: Stocks; Risk and Uncertainty

June 1997 (Revised November 1998)
Case

Sky Air, Inc.

By: Paul A. Gompers

Concerns a fictitious airline company and examines the moral hazard situation that results within a firm. Provides an opportunity to discuss corporate governance and contracting under uncertainty. View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Corporate Governance; Contracts; Risk and Uncertainty; Air Transportation Industry

Educators

Editorial

Risk Is a Choice Rather Than a Fate

By: Andre F. Perold

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Choices and Conditions

12 PM – 1:30 PM EDT, 28 Apr 2020
Career Events

New Paths Forward & How to Get There

Is there anything holding you back from taking that next step? Are you at an impasse? This session is designed to help to you honestly assess where you are now in your life. From there, we will craft potential new paths and create action plans to guide your immediate... View Details

Article

Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Investment

November 2007
Article

A Staged Solution to the Catch-22

By: Andrei Hagiu and Thomas Eisenmann

Companies looking to launch a two-sided platform—between, for example, credit card users and merchants, or search engine users and advertisers—must overcome the reluctance of one side to sign on until it's confident the other side will be well populated. It's a common... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Social Psychology; Two-Sided Platforms