Publications

November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
Case

Science Technology Co.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry

May 1974
Article

On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Price; Borrowing and Debt; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates

Article

Temporary General Equilibrium in a Sequential Trading Model with Spot and Futures Transactions

By: Jerry R. Green

The existence of an equilibrium is proven for a two-period model in which there are spot transactions and futures transactions in the first period and spot markets in the second period. Prices at that date are viewed with subjective uncertainty by all traders. This... View Details

Keywords: Equilibrium; Sequential Trading; Econometric Models

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Article

Risk and the Value Line Contest

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Roman L. Weil

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Value

spring 1973
Article

Management of Commercial Bank Government Security Portfolios: An Optimization Approach Under Uncertainty

By: D. B. Crane and Stephen P. Bradley

Keywords: Management; Banks and Banking; Government and Politics; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty

January 1973 (Revised September 1990)
Case

Carrefour S.A.

By: William E. Fruhan Jr.

Involves a very rapidly growing retail chain that is financing itself in an unusual (and at first glance) risky fashion. View Details

Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Financing and Loans; Risk and Uncertainty; Retail Industry

Article

Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Investment

March 1968 (Revised July 2010)
Case

Basic Industries

By: Joseph L. Bower and John W. Rosenblum

Policy problems, mainly organizational issues, face a young middle manager in the context of capital budgeting in a highly technological conglomerate firm with high market uncertainty. View Details

Keywords: Business Conglomerates; Capital Budgeting; Policy; Managerial Roles; Risk and Uncertainty

Forthcoming
Article

Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein

We present evidence that pressure to maximize short-term stock prices and earnings leads banks to increase risk. We start by showing that banks increase risk when they transition from private to public ownership through a public listing or an acquisition. The increase... View Details

Keywords: Ownership Type; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Banks and Banking; Transition; Price

Research Summary

Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation

By: Laura Alfaro

We develop an incomplete-contracts model to jointly study firm boundaries and the allocation of decision rights within them. Integration has an option value: it gives firm owners authority to delegate or centralize decision rights, depending on who can best solve... View Details

Teaching Interest

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

By: David E. Bell

Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details

Forthcoming
Article

Disclosure Standards and Communication Norms: Evidence of Voluntary Sustainability Standards as a Coordinating Device for Capital Markets

By: Khrystyna Bochkay, Jeffrey Hales and George Serafeim

In this paper, we examine how the development of voluntary sustainability standards has affected the nature of information covered in conference calls. Using industry-specific dictionaries of sustainability terms contained in the disclosure standards developed by the... View Details

Keywords: Voluntary Disclosure; Accounting Standards; Sustainability Reporting; Sustainability Standards; ESG; ESG Disclosure; Accounting; Corporate Disclosure; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Standards; United States

SSRN

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Forthcoming
Article

Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs

By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,... View Details

Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking

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Research Summary

Lean Startup Management Practices

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann

Many information technology startups have embraced "lean startup" management practices. Lean startups confront high levels of uncertainty about both customer problems and product solutions: the strength of demand for new... View Details

Forthcoming
Article

On the Economic Origins of Concerns Over Women’s Chastity

By: Anke Becker

This paper studies the origins and function of customs and norms that intend to keep women from being promiscuous. Using large-scale survey data from more than 100 countries, I test the anthropological theory that a particular form of preindustrial... View Details

Keywords: Infibulation; Female Sexuality; Paternity Uncertainty; Concern About Women's Chastity; Pastoralism; Economic Anthropology; History; Gender; Social Issues; Culture