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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (1,275)
    • News  (115)
    • Research  (1,050)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (802)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (1,275)
    • News  (115)
    • Research  (1,050)
    • Events  (3)
    • Multimedia  (6)
  • Faculty Publications  (802)
← Page 39 of 1,275 Results →
  • 18 May 2010
  • First Look

First Look: May 18

forecast characteristic-related stock returns. For example, we show that large firms underperform following years when issuing firms are large relative to repurchasing firms. Our approach is useful for View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 19 Oct 2010
  • First Look

First Look: October 19, 2010

Working PapersValuation when Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased Author:Richard S. Ruback Abstract This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 24 Jan 2012
  • First Look

First Look: Jan. 24

Abstract We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • August 2015 (Revised January 2017)
  • Technical Note

From Correlation to Causation

By: Feng Zhu and Karim R. Lakhani
To make sound business decisions, managers must be comfortable with the concepts of correlation and causation. This background note provides an overview of correlation and causation using examples and explains why the former does not imply the latter. It also describes... View Details
Keywords: Statistics; Regression; Data Analytics; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Judgments
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Zhu, Feng, and Karim R. Lakhani. "From Correlation to Causation." Harvard Business School Technical Note 616-009, August 2015. (Revised January 2017.)
  • January 2011
  • Article

Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities

By: Derek Koehler, Rebecca White and Leslie K. John
Self-predictions are highly sensitive to current intentions but often largely insensitive to factors influencing the readiness with which those intentions are translated into future behavior. When such factors are under a person's control, they could be used to... View Details
Keywords: Planning; Saving; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction
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Koehler, Derek, Rebecca White, and Leslie K. John. "Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities." Social Psychological & Personality Science 2, no. 1 (January 2011): 90–96.
  • February 2004 (Revised April 2004)
  • Case

Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, Inc., The

By: David F. Hawkins and Jacob Cohen
Analysts believe bankruptcy is a distinct possibility for A&P in the future. The company believes otherwise. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry
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Hawkins, David F., and Jacob Cohen. "Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, Inc., The." Harvard Business School Case 104-070, February 2004. (Revised April 2004.)
  • 28 Sep 2010
  • First Look

First Look: September 28, 2010

information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast errors of other firms. We also find... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Introduction - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections

the trading floor. The model offers a methodology to predict the seemingly unpredictable by using the lessons of complex mathematics and probability theory to forecast stock valuations, making it possible to successfully manage risk in... View Details
  • 07 May 2019
  • News

How Sonja Hoel Perkins Saved John McAfee from an Especially Bad Deal

Its forecasted revenue growth rate is more than 90 percent, and its pre-tax margins run between 80 and 90 percent of sales. The problem is that John is seriously considering selling McAfee to Symantec.” That didn’t happen, according to... View Details
  • 01 Sep 2010
  • News

Faculty Books

offerings, and fatter profit margins. Featuring case studies from around the world, this book shows how to mine sales data to identify “home-run” products, reinvent forecasting and pricing strategies, and extract maximum value from... View Details
Keywords: Retail Trade; Water Transportation; Transportation
  • February 1997
  • Case

Arch Communications Group, Inc.

By: Krishna G. Palepu and Sarayu Srinivasan
The market values Arch differently from analysts' values. View Details
Keywords: Valuation; Framework; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Stocks
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Palepu, Krishna G., and Sarayu Srinivasan. "Arch Communications Group, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 197-047, February 1997.
  • April 1998
  • Case

X-IT Products, LLC

By: Marco Iansiti, Myra M. Hart and Barbara Feinberg
Two entrepreneurs, Andrew Ive and Aldo DiBerlardino, are poised to launch their first product. The decisions they make will have a crucial impact on the future of their company. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Product Launch; Outcome or Result
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Iansiti, Marco, Myra M. Hart, and Barbara Feinberg. "X-IT Products, LLC." Harvard Business School Case 698-084, April 1998.
  • December 1995 (Revised March 1996)
  • Case

Nestle and the Twenty-First Century

By: Ray A. Goldberg and Elizabeth Ashcroft
A leading food company rethinks its future in the global food system by major geographical areas. View Details
Keywords: Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Geographic Location; Globalization; Strategy; System; Food and Beverage Industry
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Goldberg, Ray A., and Elizabeth Ashcroft. "Nestle and the Twenty-First Century." Harvard Business School Case 596-074, December 1995. (Revised March 1996.)
  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
  • June 1998
  • Supplement

MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998

By: Carin-Isabel Knoop
Drummond Paris, Regional Pharma Head, Asia/Pacific Novartis AG, discusses the company situation in Indonesia: joint ventures, budget, keeping track, and the prognosis for the future. View Details
Keywords: Business or Company Management; Joint Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Pharmaceutical Industry; Indonesia
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Knoop, Carin-Isabel. "MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998." Harvard Business School Video Supplement 898-503, June 1998.
  • 08 May 2018
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, May 8, 2018

1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think it comes from an algorithm than from a person. People showed this sort of algorithm appreciation when making numeric estimates about a visual stimulus... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 2023
  • Article

On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result
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Gao, Ruijiang, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 40th (2023): 10727–10743.
  • 2010
  • Working Paper

A New Model of Leadership (PDF File of Keynote Slides)

By: Michael C. Jensen and Allan L. Scherr
In this paper we provide a new definition of leadership that gives organizations and individuals access to new power, performance and accomplishment. In our model leadership consists of four critical elements The creation of a vision for the future that represents a... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Dissemination; Leadership; Goals and Objectives; System
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Jensen, Michael C., and Allan L. Scherr. "A New Model of Leadership (PDF File of Keynote Slides)." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-107, February 2010.
  • February 2021
  • Tutorial

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details
Keywords: Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning
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Toffel, Michael, and Natalie Epstein. Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models. Harvard Business School Tutorial 621-706, February 2021. (Click here to access this tutorial.)
  • May 2007 (Revised April 2008)
  • Case

Tiger-Tread

By: Rohit Deshpande and Richard Cardozo
Describes an innovative product launch for which a marketing plan and a breakeven analysis are needed. To introduce students to breakeven analysis and the essentials of developing a marketing plan. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Planning
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Deshpande, Rohit, and Richard Cardozo. "Tiger-Tread." Harvard Business School Case 507-077, May 2007. (Revised April 2008.)
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