Publications

January 2011
Article

Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities

By: Derek Koehler, Rebecca White and Leslie K. John

Self-predictions are highly sensitive to current intentions but often largely insensitive to factors influencing the readiness with which those intentions are translated into future behavior. When such factors are under a person's control, they could be used to... View Details

Keywords: Planning; Saving; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

February 2004 (Revised April 2004)
Case

Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, Inc., The

By: David F. Hawkins and Jacob Cohen

Analysts believe bankruptcy is a distinct possibility for A&P in the future. The company believes otherwise. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

Find at Harvard

28 Sep 2010
First Look

First Look: September 28, 2010

information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast errors of other firms. We also find... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Web

Introduction - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections

the trading floor. The model offers a methodology to predict the seemingly unpredictable by using the lessons of complex mathematics and probability theory to forecast stock valuations, making it possible to successfully manage risk in... View Details

07 May 2019
News

How Sonja Hoel Perkins Saved John McAfee from an Especially Bad Deal

Its forecasted revenue growth rate is more than 90 percent, and its pre-tax margins run between 80 and 90 percent of sales. The problem is that John is seriously considering selling McAfee to Symantec.” That didn’t happen, according to... View Details

01 Sep 2010
News

Faculty Books

offerings, and fatter profit margins. Featuring case studies from around the world, this book shows how to mine sales data to identify “home-run” products, reinvent forecasting and pricing strategies, and extract maximum value from... View Details

Keywords: Retail Trade; Water Transportation; Transportation

February 1997
Case

Arch Communications Group, Inc.

By: Krishna G. Palepu and Sarayu Srinivasan

The market values Arch differently from analysts' values. View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Framework; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Stocks

April 1998
Case

X-IT Products, LLC

By: Marco Iansiti, Myra M. Hart and Barbara Feinberg

Two entrepreneurs, Andrew Ive and Aldo DiBerlardino, are poised to launch their first product. The decisions they make will have a crucial impact on the future of their company. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Product Launch; Outcome or Result

December 1995 (Revised March 1996)
Case

Nestle and the Twenty-First Century

By: Ray A. Goldberg and Elizabeth Ashcroft

A leading food company rethinks its future in the global food system by major geographical areas. View Details

Keywords: Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Geographic Location; Globalization; Strategy; System; Food and Beverage Industry

Find at Harvard

2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

Read Now

June 1998
Supplement

MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998

By: Carin-Isabel Knoop

Drummond Paris, Regional Pharma Head, Asia/Pacific Novartis AG, discusses the company situation in Indonesia: joint ventures, budget, keeping track, and the prognosis for the future. View Details

Keywords: Business or Company Management; Joint Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Pharmaceutical Industry; Indonesia

08 May 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, May 8, 2018

1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think it comes from an algorithm than from a person. People showed this sort of algorithm appreciation when making numeric estimates about a visual stimulus... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2023
Article

On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result

Read Now

2010
Working Paper

A New Model of Leadership (PDF File of Keynote Slides)

By: Michael C. Jensen and Allan L. Scherr

In this paper we provide a new definition of leadership that gives organizations and individuals access to new power, performance and accomplishment. In our model leadership consists of four critical elements The creation of a vision for the future that represents a... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Dissemination; Leadership; Goals and Objectives; System

February 2021
Tutorial

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein

This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details

Keywords: Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning

May 2007 (Revised April 2008)
Case

Tiger-Tread

By: Rohit Deshpande and Richard Cardozo

Describes an innovative product launch for which a marketing plan and a breakeven analysis are needed. To introduce students to breakeven analysis and the essentials of developing a marketing plan. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Planning