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      • Faculty Publications  (1,047)

      Decision Choice And UncertaintyRemove Decision Choice And Uncertainty →

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      • November 2007 (Revised March 2009)
      • Case

      Allston: Brand vs. Architecture

      By: Andre F. Perold, Arthur I Segel and Christopher M. Gordon
      Harvard President Lawrence Summers had presided over the final interviews of world-renowned architects being considered for the science complex planned for Harvard's expanded campus in Allston. The selection process had absorbed nine months in 2005 and amplified the... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Brands and Branding; Design; Urban Development; Selection and Staffing; Construction Industry; Boston
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      Perold, Andre F., Arthur I Segel, and Christopher M. Gordon. "Allston: Brand vs. Architecture." Harvard Business School Case 208-079, November 2007. (Revised March 2009.)
      • November 2007 (Revised March 2009)
      • Case

      OppenheimerFunds and Take-Two Interactive (A)

      By: Jay W. Lorsch, Andrew Hill and Kaitlyn Simpson
      Describes the dilemma faced by Emmanuel Ferreira, a fund manager at OppenheimerFunds. As the largest shareholder and a long-time investor in software publisher Take-Two Interactive, Ferreira contemplates whether or not to get involved with other investors in trying to... View Details
      Keywords: Restructuring; Decision Choices and Conditions; Investment; Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Business and Shareholder Relations
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      Lorsch, Jay W., Andrew Hill, and Kaitlyn Simpson. "OppenheimerFunds and Take-Two Interactive (A)." Harvard Business School Case 408-074, November 2007. (Revised March 2009.)
      • November 2007 (Revised March 2009)
      • Case

      Clear Channel 2006

      By: Richard S. Ruback and Leslie Pierson
      The Board of Directors of Clear Channel Communications, a radio broadcasting and outdoor advertising company, has to respond to a revised proposal from two private equity firms to take the company private. In November of 2006, the Board had unanimously approved an... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Private Equity; Governing and Advisory Boards; Negotiation Offer; Privatization; Business and Shareholder Relations
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      Ruback, Richard S., and Leslie Pierson. "Clear Channel 2006." Harvard Business School Case 208-083, November 2007. (Revised March 2009.)
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Choice, Rationality and Welfare Measurement

      By: Jerry R. Green and Daniel A. Hojman
      We present a method for evaluating the welfare of a decision maker, based on observed choice data. Unlike the standard economic theory of revealed preference, our method can be used whether or not the observed choices are rational. Paralleling the standard theory we... View Details
      Keywords: Welfare Economics; Behavioral Economics; Psychology; Decision Making; Economics; Voting
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      Green, Jerry R., and Daniel A. Hojman. "Choice, Rationality and Welfare Measurement." HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series, No. 2144, November 2007.
      • 01 Nov 2007
      • Conference Presentation

      Decision Amnesia: Motivated Forgetting of Difficult Choices

      By: Zoe Chance and Michael I. Norton
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      Chance, Zoe, and Michael I. Norton. "Decision Amnesia: Motivated Forgetting of Difficult Choices." Paper presented at the Society for Judgment and Decision Making Annual Meeting, Long Beach, CA, November 01, 2007.
      • October 2007 (Revised March 2008)
      • Case

      First National Bank's Golden Opportunity

      By: Shawn A. Cole, Peter Tufano, Daniel Schneider and Daryl Collins
      Executives at First National Bank in South Africa are considering whether to launch a potentially exciting, but rather unorthodox, new savings product. Instead of paying interest, this product gives depositors the chance to win large cash prizes each month. Michael... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Banks and Banking; Investment; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Banking Industry; South Africa
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      Cole, Shawn A., Peter Tufano, Daniel Schneider, and Daryl Collins. "First National Bank's Golden Opportunity." Harvard Business School Case 208-072, October 2007. (Revised March 2008.)
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      What Have We Learned From Market Design?

      By: Alvin E. Roth
      This essay discusses some things we have learned about markets, in the process of designing marketplaces to fix market failures. To work well, marketplaces have to provide thickness, i.e. they need to attract a large enough proportion of the potential participants in... View Details
      Keywords: Market Design; Market Participation; Market Transactions; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety
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      Roth, Alvin E. "What Have We Learned From Market Design?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13530, October 2007.
      • September 2007 (Revised October 2010)
      • Case

      DermaCare: Zapping Zits Directly

      By: Richard G. Hamermesh and Lauren Barley
      DermaCare has developed an innovative new product for the treatment of acne that they hope to sell to consumers via direct-response television. The unconventional nature of the product and its distribution has led the company to seek angel financing. The Silicon Valley... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Venture Capital; Investment; Innovation and Invention; Product; California
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      Hamermesh, Richard G., and Lauren Barley. "DermaCare: Zapping Zits Directly." Harvard Business School Case 808-064, September 2007. (Revised October 2010.)
      • fall 2007
      • Article

      Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

      By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Harnessing Our Inner Angels and Demons: What We Have Learned About Want/Should Conflicts and How That Knowledge Can Help Us Reduce Short-Sighted Decision Making

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      Although observers of human behavior have long been aware that people regularly struggle with internal conflict when deciding whether to behave responsibly or indulge in impulsivity, psychologists and economists did not begin to empirically investigate this type of... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Ethics; Policy; Behavior; Conflict and Resolution
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Harnessing Our Inner Angels and Demons: What We Have Learned About Want/Should Conflicts and How That Knowledge Can Help Us Reduce Short-Sighted Decision Making." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-020, September 2007.
      • Article

      Reputation When Threats and Transfers Are Available

      By: Ernesto Dal Bo, Pedro Dal Bo and Rafael Di Tella
      We present a model where a long-run player is allowed to use both money transfers and threats to influence the decisions of a sequence of short-run players. We show that threats might be used credibly (even in arbitrarily short repeated games) by a long-lived player... View Details
      Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Decision Choices and Conditions; Game Theory; Mathematical Methods; Interests; Power and Influence; Reputation
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      Dal Bo, Ernesto, Pedro Dal Bo, and Rafael Di Tella. "Reputation When Threats and Transfers Are Available." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 16, no. 3 (Fall 2007).
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      A Taste For Obscurity: An Individual-Level Examination of 'Long Tail' Consumption

      By: Anita Elberse
      Because online retailers are often able to provide products in a more cost-efficient manner than bricks-and-mortar stores, online channels are characterized by a vast assortment of products. Proponents of the "long tail" principle recently argued that the demand for... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Distribution Channels; Product; Renting or Rental; Online Technology; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Elberse, Anita. "A Taste For Obscurity: An Individual-Level Examination of 'Long Tail' Consumption." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-008, August 2007.
      • 2007
      • Text Book

      Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements

      By: Paul M. Healy and Krishna G. Palepu
      Financial statements are the basis for a wide range of business analysis. Managers, securities analysts, bankers, and consultants all use them to make business decisions. There is strong demand among business students for course materials that provide a framework for... View Details
      Keywords: Valuation; Framework; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financial Statements
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      Healy, Paul M., and Krishna G. Palepu. Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements. 4th ed. Mason, OH: Thomson South-Western, 2007.
      • July 2007 (Revised May 2008)
      • Case

      Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision

      By: Dennis Campbell, Francisco de Asis Martinez-Jerez, Peter Tufano and Emily McClintock
      The "Central Bank" series analyzes the use of information and product design for managing the counterparty risk of newly acquired customers. Central Bank, a mid-sized regional U.S. bank, was attempting to grow its customer base by increasing the number of new checking... View Details
      Keywords: Central Banking; Knowledge Management; Customer Satisfaction; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making; Banking Industry; United States
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      Campbell, Dennis, Francisco de Asis Martinez-Jerez, Peter Tufano, and Emily McClintock. "Central Bank: The ChexSystemsSM QualiFile® Decision." Harvard Business School Case 208-029, July 2007. (Revised May 2008.)
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Correlated Equilibrium and Nash Equilibrium as an Observer's Assessment of the Game

      By: John Hillas, Elon Kohlberg and John W. Pratt
      Noncooperative games are examined from the point of view of an outside observer who believes that the players are rational and that they know at least as much as the observer. The observer is assumed to be able to observe many instances of the play of the game; these... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Game Theory; Cooperation
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      Hillas, John, Elon Kohlberg, and John W. Pratt. "Correlated Equilibrium and Nash Equilibrium as an Observer's Assessment of the Game." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-005, July 2007.
      • 2007
      • Text Book

      The Moral Leader: Challenges, Tools, and Insights

      By: Sandra J. Sucher

      Successful leaders—at any level and in any arena—are inevitably presented with moral and ethical choices. This unique and innovative textbook is designed to encourage students and managers to confront those fundamental moral challenges, to develop skills in moral... View Details

      Keywords: Competency and Skills; Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Moral Sensibility; Leadership
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      Sucher, Sandra J. The Moral Leader: Challenges, Tools, and Insights. Routledge, 2007.
      • June 2007 (Revised April 2009)
      • Case

      Intel 2006: Rising to the Graphics Challenge

      By: Willy C. Shih and Elie Ofek
      Examines the evolution of the PC hardware industry over the span of two and a half decades. The open architecture design of the IBM Personal Computer followed by the rapid appearance of clones drove a high level of standardization and modularity in the industry, and... View Details
      Keywords: History; Customer Value and Value Chain; Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Infrastructure; Competitive Strategy; Mergers and Acquisitions; Technology Industry
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      Shih, Willy C., and Elie Ofek. "Intel 2006: Rising to the Graphics Challenge." Harvard Business School Case 607-136, June 2007. (Revised April 2009.)
      • June 2007 (Revised March 2011)
      • Case

      The CW: Launching a Television Network

      By: Anita Elberse and S. Mark Young
      In May 2006, Dawn Ostroff, president of entertainment of the newly formed CW Television Network, was faced with the task of choosing the final set of programs for the 2006 fall schedule, which she would present to advertisers at the annual "upfront" market in New York... View Details
      Keywords: Advertising; Customer Relationship Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Television Entertainment; Brands and Branding; Product Launch; Strategic Planning; Networks; Media and Broadcasting Industry
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      Elberse, Anita, and S. Mark Young. "The CW: Launching a Television Network." Harvard Business School Case 507-050, June 2007. (Revised March 2011.)
      • June 2007 (Revised March 2008)
      • Case

      Zoots - Financing Growth (A)

      By: Michael J. Roberts, William A. Sahlman and Todd Krasnow
      Traces the genesis and founding of Zoots, the largest chain of dry cleaning establishments in the U.S. Founded by some of the founders of the very successful Staples chain, the company raises a very large amount of capital without fully proving its business model, and... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Decision Choices and Conditions; Venture Capital; Financial Strategy; Investment Return; Growth and Development Strategy; Valuation; United States
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      Roberts, Michael J., William A. Sahlman, and Todd Krasnow. "Zoots - Financing Growth (A)." Harvard Business School Case 807-139, June 2007. (Revised March 2008.)
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details
      Keywords: Internet and the Web; Decision Choices and Conditions; Attitudes; Conflict and Resolution; Emotions; Film Entertainment; Cognition and Thinking; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-099, June 2007. (Revised July 2007, December 2007, April 2008, September 2008, January 2009.)
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