Publications

SSRN

May 2024
Article

Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others

By: Rachel Ruttan, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli and Katherine DeCelles

Existing work on attribution theory distinguishes between external and internal attributions (i.e., “I overcame adversity due to luck” vs. “my own effort”). We introduce the construct of relational resilience attributions (i.e., “due to help from other people”) as a... View Details

Keywords: Personal Characteristics; Forecasting and Prediction; Attitudes; Behavior

October 2024
Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester

Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

November–December 2023
Article

Network Centralization and Collective Adaptability to a Shifting Environment

By: Ethan S. Bernstein, Jesse C. Shore and Alice J. Jang

We study the connection between communication network structure and an organization’s collective adaptability to a shifting environment. Research has shown that network centralization—the degree to which communication flows disproportionately through one or more... View Details

Keywords: Network Centralization; Collective Intelligence; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Structure; Communication; Decision Making; Networks; Adaptation

January 2021
Article

Using Models to Persuade

By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam

We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model... View Details

Keywords: Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework

August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods

2018
Working Paper

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.

By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details

Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption

SSRN

February 2018
Supplement

People Analytics at Teach For America (B)

By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley

This is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. In this supplement, Managing Director Michael Metzger must decide how to extend his team’s predictive analytics work using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Recruitment; Analysis

September 2017
Article

The Belief in a Favorable Future

By: Todd Rogers, Don A. Moore and Michael I. Norton

People believe that future others’ preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own. People holding a particular view (e.g., support of President Trump) are more likely to believe that future others will share their view than to believe that future others... View Details

Keywords: Social Cognition; Judgment; Prediction; Forecasting; False Consensus; Donation; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Forecasting and Prediction; Perception; Values and Beliefs; Behavior

March 2015
Case

Statoil: Transparency on Payments to Governments

By: George Serafeim

The Statoil case describes the challenge of increasing transparency, in extractive industries, around host county government payments. The case describes Statoil's reasoning behind voluntarily disclosing host country government payments, and the events that led to this... View Details

Keywords: Corruption; Disclosure; Disclosure Strategy; Regulation; Industry Self-regulation; Corporate Governance; Corporate Accountability; Bribery; Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility; Government Legislation; Cost vs Benefits; Corporate Disclosure; Mining; Mining Industry; United States

February 2007 (Revised October 2007)
Case

BASIX

By: Shawn A. Cole and Peter Tufano

BASIX, an Indian microfinance corporation, must decide whether to continue to sell weather insurance to its clients. A brand-new financial product, weather insurance pays if measured rainfall during the growing season falls below a pre-specified limit. Mr. Sattaiah,... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Microfinance; Insurance; Risk Management; Banking Industry; India

August 2002 (Revised October 2002)
Case

Launching the War on Terrorism

Describes the decision-making process employed by President George W. Bush's War Cabinet in the days following the September 11th terrorist attacks. Examines how the president and his advisers framed the problem, exchanged ideas, generated alternatives, and developed a... View Details

Keywords: War; National Security; Decision Making; Crisis Management; Management Teams; Public Administration Industry; United States

November 1997
Case

National Pork Producers Council

By: Ray A. Goldberg and Tom Clay

Al Tank, CEO of the National Pork Products Council, is facing an environmental and structural crisis in the U.S. pork industry. Can he resolve the environmental and image problems of his industry in time? Can he receive the support of both his growers and the... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Situation or Environment; Crisis Management; Environmental Sustainability; Business and Community Relations; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Industry Structures; Reputation; Food and Beverage Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; United States

August 1998 (Revised October 2002)
Case

Harbus Foundation, The

By: James E. Austin and Linda Carrigan

Describes the challenges faced by a group of HBS students as they create a foundation. Given surplus funds generated by the student-run newspaper, The Harbus leadership decides to find a meaningful use for the excess cash. Profiles both the entrepreneurial process used... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Decision Choices and Conditions; Asset Management; Financial Institutions; Investment Portfolio; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Problems and Challenges; Social Enterprise; Valuation; Financial Services Industry

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Nick Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew F. Newman, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen

03 Oct 2009
News

"I Read Playboy for the Articles"

Keywords: Professor Michael Norton; Business Schools & Computer & Management Training; Educational Services

01 Jun 2012
News

Straight to the Heart

That’s my philosophy. I think about all the angst around deciding about the first job to take, post-HBS. It’s nothing compared to the decision of who to marry! You can do many things to change your professional circumstances, but there’s... View Details

Keywords: Julia Hanna; marriage; social media; matchmaking; Personal Services

08 Jan 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation

August 1996 (Revised June 2007)
Case

Nicholson File Company Takeover (B), The

By: Thomas R. Piper

Management of a small hand tool company must decide on the terms and conditions of its sale to a "friendly" acquirer. View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Negotiation Preparation; Negotiation Participants; Acquisition; Manufacturing Industry

September 2023 (Revised January 2025)
Case

To Found or to Cofound? That Is the Question

By: Christina Wallace and Jo Tango

Entrepreneurs often struggle with the question of whether to found solo or alongside one or more cofounders. This case is comprised of three vignettes detailing common founding scenarios: the first-time technical founder; the serial commercial founder; and the MBA... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Decisions; Entrepreneurship; Partners and Partnerships

April 1975 (Revised December 1991)
Case

Consolidated Edison Co. (Abridged)

By: Thomas R. Piper

Faced with large external financing needs and a low stock price, Con Ed management must decide whether to pay a cash dividend in April 1974. Based on Consolidated Edison by G.C. Lodge. View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financing and Loans; Energy Industry