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- February 2018
- Article
Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection
By: Robert F. Engle and Emil N. Siriwardane
During the financial crisis, financial firm leverage and volatility both rose dramatically. Consequently, institutions are being asked to reduce leverage in order to reduce risk, though the effectiveness depends upon the role of capital structure in volatility. To... View Details
Keywords: Leverage; Credit Risk; Crisis Management; Equity; Volatility; Credit; Risk Management; Financial Crisis
- January 2018 (Revised January 2021)
- Case
Colombia's 4G Road Program: The Pacífico 3 Bond Offer
By: John Macomber, Maria Fernanda Miguel and Mariana Cal
Colombia conceived its 4G (Fourth Generation) Road Program to try to attract $17 billion from the private sector for investment in toll roads. The nation had also created the National Infrastructure Agency of Colombia (ANI) to oversee multiple investments, and the... View Details
Keywords: Private Public Partnerships; Infrastructure; Projects; Finance; Emerging Markets; Colombia
- January 2018
- Case
Merck CEO Ken Frazier Quits President Trump's Advisory Council
By: Andy Zelleke and Brian Tilley
In the first six months of Donald Trump’s presidency, Merck CEO Kenneth Frazier appeared alongside Trump at least three times at press events, one of which commemorated the first and only meeting of the president’s Manufacturing Job Initiative (better known at the... View Details
- January 2018 (Revised March 2018)
- Case
Portugal: Can Socialism Survive?
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
Portugal was not ready to join the European Monetary Union in 1999. With strong unions, weak competitiveness, and a legacy of socialism, it could not compete with north-European countries. After borrowing extensively to fund deficits, Portugal went into debt crisis in... View Details
- January 2018 (Revised May 2019)
- Case
Adeo Health Science: Turning a Product into a Brand
By: Elizabeth A. Keenan and Jill Avery
For decades, American parents were warned to avoid introducing potential allergens to their babies prior to their first birthday. But two influential clinical studies caused the medical establishment to radically reverse its position. Parents were now warned that... View Details
Keywords: Startup; Health Care; Consumer; Consumer Products; Branding; Distribution; Retailing; Go To Market Strategy; Marketing; Marketing Channels; Marketing Communications; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Entrepreneurship; Health Care and Treatment; Consumer Products Industry; Health Industry; United States; North America
- 2019
- Working Paper
Do Banks Have an Edge?
By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford
Overall, no! We show that the level and time series variation in cash flows for most bank activities are well matched by capital market portfolios with similar interest rate and credit risk to what banks report to hold. Ignoring operating expenses, bank loans earn high... View Details
Keywords: Banks; Market Efficiency; Bank Capital; Bank Debt; CAPM; Banking; Bank Deposits; Bank Funding Advantage; Leverage; Maturity Transformation; Replicating Portfolio; Efficiency; Banks and Banking; Capital Markets; Performance Evaluation; Performance Efficiency; Banking Industry; United States
- January–February 2018
- Article
Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye
By: Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Bruce G.S. Hardie
We investigate the increasingly common business setting in which companies face the possibility of both observed and unobserved customer attrition (i.e., “overt” and “silent” churn) in the same pool of customers. This is the case for many online-based services where... View Details
- January–February 2018
- Article
The New CEO Activists
By: Aaron K Chatterji and Michael W. Toffel
Though corporations have been lobbying the government and making campaign donations for a long time now, in recent years a dramatic new trend has emerged in U.S. politics: CEOs are taking very public stands on thorny political issues that have nothing to do with their... View Details
- December 2017 (Revised June 2021)
- Case
Tesla's Bid for SolarCity (A)
By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Raaj Zutshi
In October 2016, Tesla asked its shareholders to ratify their $2.4 billion bid for SolarCity. Tesla had announced a series of large projects in the preceding months including the unveiling of the Model 3, the new Solar Roof, and pushing forward the opening of the... View Details
- December 2017 (Revised January 2018)
- Case
Alltech
By: David E. Bell and Natalie Kindred
Alltech was a Lexington, Kentucky–based producer of supplements for animal feed, with revenues of over $2 billion (projected to reach $3 billion in 2018), sales in 120 countries, 5,000 employees, and 100 manufacturing plants worldwide. For nearly four decades, Alltech... View Details
Keywords: Alltech; United States; Agribusiness; Agriculture; Animal; Animal Agriculture; Animal Feed; Livestock; Family Business; Vertical Integration; Strategy; Growth; Feed Additives; Feed Supplements; Kentucky; Growth Strategy; Family Businesses; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Change Management; Trends; Governance; Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development; Intellectual Property; Leadership; Management; Markets; Organizational Culture; Private Ownership; Science; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Research; Sales; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States; Kentucky; Brazil; China
- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details
- November 2017 (Revised November 2017)
- Teaching Note
Accounting for Political Risk at AES
By: Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Suraj Srinivasan
Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 118-023 and 118-024. View Details
- November 7, 2017
- Article
Temporary Sharing Prompts Unrestrained Disclosures That Leave Lasting Negative Impressions
By: Reto Hofstetter, Roland Rüppell and Leslie John
With the advent of social media, the impressions people make on others are based increasingly on their digital disclosures. Yet digital disclosures can come back to haunt, making it challenging for people to manage the impressions they make. In field and online... View Details
- Fourth Quarter 2017
- Article
Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Terry Burnham
We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in U.S. equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size (a very persistent... View Details
- 2017
- Report
The American Angel: The First In-Depth Report on the Demographics and Investing Activity of Individual American Angel Investors
By: Laura Huang, Andy Wu, Min Ju Lee, Jiayi Bao, Marianne Hudson and Elaine Bolle
Early-stage financing from angel investors is critical to the success of high-growth startups. Recent estimates suggest that annual US angel investment activity may total as much as $24 billion each year, contributing to the growth and success of more than 64,000... View Details
- Article
The Board's New Innovation Imperative: Directors Need to Rethink Their Roles and Their Attitude to Risk
By: Linda A. Hill and George Davis
As firms scramble for competitive advantage, boards—once the cautious voices urging management to mitigate risk—are now calling for breakthrough innovation. Indeed, avoiding risk is now seen as the riskiest proposition of all. In speaking with CEOs and board members... View Details
- October 2017
- Case
Shift Technologies, Inc.
By: Thomas Eisenmann and Nicole Tempest Keller
In 2017, management at Shift, an online marketplace that uses a “high touch,” concierge approach to buy and sell used cars, was formulating plans for the San Francisco–based startup’s next phase of expansion. One option was to preserve Shift’s current business model... View Details
- October 2017 (Revised October 2022)
- Case
JetBlue: Relevant Sustainability Leadership (A)
By: George Serafeim
In 2017, JetBlue, the airline founded on the mission to “bring humanity back to air travel,” was considering becoming one of the first companies to report its sustainability performance according to the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) standards. SASB... View Details
Keywords: Sustainability; Metrics; Leadership And Change Management; Airlines; Innovation; Purpose; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Sustainability Reporting; Change Management; Leadership; Financial Reporting; Environmental Sustainability; Mission and Purpose; Reports; Competitive Strategy; Measurement and Metrics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Air Transportation Industry; United States
- 2017
- Working Paper
International Business and Emerging Markets: A Long-Run Perspective
By: Geoffrey Jones
This working paper explores long-run patterns in the strategies of international business in developing countries. There was a massive wave of Western multinational investment in the developing world during the first wave of globalization before the 1920s. The... View Details
- 2017
- Article
Agricultural Insurance and Economic Development
By: Shawn A. Cole and Wentao Xiong
This article provides a review of recent research on agricultural insurance (AI) in developing countries. Agricultural producers face a variety of significant risks; historically, only government-subsidized products have achieved widespread adoption. A recent... View Details