Publications

September 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

ReMo Energy: Sizing Up Investors

By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang and Tom Quinn

In 2023, executives with ReMo Energy (founded 2020) were deciding which size ammonia plant to build as their first project. Their innovative model produced ammonia—useful for making fertilizer and for energy storage—from renewable energy, and they had received funding... View Details

2023
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

Using confidential supervisory risk ratings, we document that banks increase risk after they go public compared to a control group of banks that filed to go public but withdrew their filings for plausibly exogenous reasons. The increase in risk increases short-term... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Banks and Banking; Going Public; Performance; Stocks

August 2023 (Revised December 2023)
Case

Automating Morality: Ethics for Intelligent Machines

By: Joseph L. Badaracco Jr. and Tom Quinn

As autonomy became a more significant part of modern life – most notably in autonomous vehicles (AVs), such as Teslas – ethical debates about whether and how to impart ethics to machines heated up. Utilitarians pointed out that autonomous vehicles crashed much less... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Judgments; Fairness; Moral Sensibility; Values and Beliefs; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Disruptive Innovation; Technology Adoption; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking; Technological Innovation; Auto Industry; Technology Industry; Africa; Asia; Europe; North and Central America; Oceania; South America

August 2023
Article

Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée

This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details

Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation

2023
Working Paper

The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices

By: Umang Khetan, Jane Li, Ioana Neamtu and Ishita Sen

We study the extent of interest rate risk sharing across the financial system using granular positions and transactions data in interest rate swaps. We show that pension and insurance (PF&I) sector emerges as a natural counterparty to banks and corporations: overall,... View Details

Keywords: Interest Rates; Investment Funds; Banks and Banking; Insurance; Investment Banking; Risk and Uncertainty

SSRN

May 22, 2023
Other Article

How to Manage Workforce Risk Amid Old Challenges, New Disruptions

By: Joseph B. Fuller, Michael Griffiths, Reem Janho, Michael Stephan, Carey Oven and Keri Calagna

C-suites and boards have an opportunity to improve management and expand governance of their workforce to mitigate related risks more effectively. View Details

Keywords: Employees; Risk and Uncertainty

April 2023
Case

Fizzy Fusion: When Data-Driven Decision Making Failed

By: Michael Parzen, Eddie Lin, Douglas Ng and Jessie Li

This is a case about a fictional New York beverage company called Fizzy Fusion. The business is facing supply chain and inventory management challenges with its new product, SparklingSip. Despite seeking help from a data science consulting firm, the machine learning... View Details

Keywords: Supply Chain Management; Production; Risk and Uncertainty; Analytics and Data Science; Food and Beverage Industry

April 2023
Article

Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?

By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Amy Wang Huber

Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance

Find at Harvard

April 2023
Article

The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’

By: Jacqueline N. Lane

In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Research; Resource Allocation; Perception

March 2023
Article

Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits

By: Elisabeth Kempf and Oliver Spalt

This paper provides novel evidence suggesting that securities class action lawsuits, a central pillar of the U.S. litigation and corporate governance system, can constitute an obstacle to valuable corporate innovation. We first establish that valuable innovation output... View Details

Keywords: Class-action Litigation; Turnover; Lawsuits and Litigation; Innovation and Invention; Risk and Uncertainty

Find at Harvard

Register to Read

2023
White Paper

Managing Workforce Risk in an Era of Unpredictability and Disruption

By: Joseph B. Fuller, Michael Griffiths, Reem Janho, Michael Stephan, Carey Oven, Keri Calagna, George Fackler, Robin Jones, Sue Cantrell and Zac Shaw

Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; Talent and Talent Management

February 2023
Article

OTC Intermediaries

By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane

We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market... View Details

Keywords: OTC Markets; Intermediaries; Dealers; Credit Default Swaps; Risk Sharing; Financial Markets; Networks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty

January 2023 (Revised June 2024)
Case

Adams + Beasley Associates

By: Dennis Campbell and Iuliana Mogosanu

This case illustrates how a strong culture, founder-led SME designed and used a unique performance metric—the job security index—to manage through periods of economic uncertainty. The case centers specifically on how the job security index was used in an interactive... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Measurement and Metrics; Employee Ownership; Risk and Uncertainty; Small Business; Leadership; Organizational Culture

January 2023
Case

Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery

By: Regina Herzlinger and Brian Walker

What should a successful executive (HBS Baker Scholar) assess as her next move as the CEO of a firm with a promising and yet uncertain new drug? Amy Burroughs’ mandate to successfully commercialize Cleave Therapeutics’ drug for a cancer with no current successful... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Leadership; Health Testing and Trials; Research and Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Condition; Partners and Partnerships; Pharmaceutical Industry

January 2023
Case

Thomas Buberl: Refounding AXA

By: Hubert Joly, Mihir Desai and Amram Migdal

In 2022, AXA and its CEO Thomas Buberl faced new types of challenges, including systemic risks such as climate change, geopolitical instability, public health crises, and social tensions caused by economic risks. AXA was one of the world’s largest insurers. Since... View Details

2024
Working Paper

Consumers Hold Autonomous Vehicles Liable Even When Not at Fault

By: Julian De Freitas, Xilin Zhou, Margherita Atzei, Shoshana Boardman and Luigi Di Lillo

The deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and the accompanying societal and economic benefits will greatly depend on how much liability AV firms will have to carry for accidents involving these vehicles, which in turn impacts their insurability and associated... View Details

Keywords: Autonomous Vehicles; Moral Judgment; Liabilities; Harm; Insurance; Moral Sensibility; Legal Liability; Risk and Uncertainty; Technological Innovation; Public Opinion

SSRN

2023
Working Paper

The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’

By: Jacqueline N. Lane

In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Research; Resource Allocation; Perception

SSRN

January 2023
Article

Psychological Safety Comes of Age: Observed Themes in an Established Literature

By: Amy C. Edmondson and Derrick P. Bransby

Since its renaissance in the 1990s, psychological safety research has flourished—a boom motivated by recognition of the challenge of navigating uncertainty and change. Today, its theoretical and practical significance is amplified by the increasingly complex and... View Details

Keywords: Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Leadership; Working Conditions; Research; Performance; Learning; Organizational Culture

Find at Harvard

December 2022
Case

To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM

By: Joshua D. Margolis, David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg and James Weber

In December 2022, Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of agribusiness and nutrition giant ADM, considered the next phase of the historic company’s future. Beginning in 2011 when he joined as COO and moving into his tenure as CEO in 2015, Luciano led a transformation of ADM... View Details