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- All HBS Web (794)
- Faculty Publications (114)
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- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
- August 2020
- Article
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,... View Details
Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics
Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
- May 2011
- Article
Higher Risk, Lower Returns: What Hedge Fund Investors Really Earn
By: Ilia Dichev and Gwen Yu
The returns of hedge fund investors depend not only on the returns of the hedge funds they hold but also on the timing and magnitude of their capital flows in and out of the funds. We use dollar-weighted returns (a form of IRR) to assess the properties of actual... View Details
Dichev, Ilia, and Gwen Yu. "Higher Risk, Lower Returns: What Hedge Fund Investors Really Earn." Journal of Financial Economics 100, no. 2 (May 2011): 248–263.
- June 2013 (Revised July 2017)
- Case
Angus Cartwright IV
By: Kenneth J. Hatten, William J. Poorvu, Howard H. Stevenson, Arthur I Segel and John H. Vogel, Jr.
Judy and John DeRight, looking to diversify their investment portfolios, have retained Angus Cartwright, Jr. to identify prospective real estate acquisitions. Mr. Cartwright has four potential properties that he feels merit an in-depth financial analysis. The case... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Taxation; Balanced Scorecard; Valuation
Hatten, Kenneth J., William J. Poorvu, Howard H. Stevenson, Arthur I Segel, and John H. Vogel, Jr. "Angus Cartwright IV." Harvard Business School Case 813-185, June 2013. (Revised July 2017.)
- June 2016
- Article
Local Currency Sovereign Risk
By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger
We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details
Du, Wenxin, and Jesse Schreger. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk." Journal of Finance 71, no. 3 (June 2016): 1027–1070.
- June 1975 (Revised September 2004)
- Case
Angus Cartwright III
By: Kenneth J. Hatten, William J. Poorvu, Howard H. Stevenson, Arthur I. Segel and John H. Vogel, Jr.
Judy and John DeRight, looking to diversify their investment portfolios, have retained Angus Cartwright, Jr. to identify prospective real estate acquisitions. Mr. Cartwright has four potential properties that he feels merit an in-depth financial analysis. The case... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Taxation; Balanced Scorecard; Valuation
Hatten, Kenneth J., William J. Poorvu, Howard H. Stevenson, Arthur I. Segel, and John H. Vogel, Jr. "Angus Cartwright III." Harvard Business School Case 375-376, June 1975. (Revised September 2004.)
- Forthcoming
- Article
Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks
By: Alyssa G. Anerson, Wenxin Du and Bernd Schlusche
We show that the role of unsecured, short-term wholesale funding for global banks has changed significantly in the post-financial-crisis regulatory environment. Global banks mainly use such funding to finance liquid, near risk-free arbitrage positions—in particular,... View Details
Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; Financing and Loans
Anerson, Alyssa G., Wenxin Du, and Bernd Schlusche. "Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks." Journal of Finance (forthcoming).
- December 2014
- Teaching Note
Rick's Dilemma
By: Arthur I Segel and Ben Eppler
This is a teaching note designed to accompany the case "Rick's Dilemma." View Details
- Article
Inflation and Taxes in a Growing Economy with Debt and Equity
By: M. Feldstein, Jerry R. Green and Eytan Sheshinski
Our tax system was designed for an economy with little or no inflation. The current paper shows that inflation causes capricious changes in the effective rate of tax on capital income and therefore in the real net rate of return that savers receive. This is not only a... View Details
Feldstein, M., Jerry R. Green, and Eytan Sheshinski. "Inflation and Taxes in a Growing Economy with Debt and Equity." Special Issue on Research in Taxation. Journal of Political Economy 86, no. 2 pt. 2 (April 1978): S53–S70.
- 27 May 2011
- Working Paper Summaries
An Empirical Decomposition of Risk and Liquidity in Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Government Bonds
Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details
Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- 16 Oct 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, October 16, 2018
company and grow as fast as possible (e.g., high double digits) or be more conservative and grow sales at a financially healthy rate, like traditional retailers did (e.g., single digits). The primary way e-retailing companies achieved these abnormally high View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- August 1989 (Revised January 1992)
- Case
Prospect Hill
By: William J. Poorvu and Katherine Sweetman
Bill Hassett, a partner in the Nelson Companies, has to make some important decisions regarding the expansion of Prospect Hill Executive Office Park in Waltham, Massachusetts. The pre-development issues concerning him about the Hillside Building include how to position... View Details
Keywords: Expansion; Growth and Development Strategy; Property; Decisions; Interest Rates; Urban Development; Organizational Structure; Real Estate Industry; Massachusetts
Poorvu, William J., and Katherine Sweetman. "Prospect Hill." Harvard Business School Case 390-011, August 1989. (Revised January 1992.)
- Article
The Economics of Structured Finance
By: Joshua D. Coval, Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford
This paper investigates the spectacular rise and fall of structured finance. The essence of structured finance activities is the pooling of economic assets like loans, bonds, and mortgages, and the subsequent issuance of a prioritized capital structure of claims, known... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Asset Management; Debt Securities; Investment; Risk Management; Behavior
Coval, Joshua D., Jakub W. Jurek, and Erik Stafford. "The Economics of Structured Finance." Journal of Economic Perspectives 23, no. 1 (Winter 2009): 3–25.
- March 2016
- Article
An Analysis of Firms' Self-reported Anticorruption Efforts
By: Paul M. Healy and George Serafeim
We use Transparency International's ratings of self-reported anticorruption efforts for 480 corporations to analyze factors underlying the ratings. Our tests examine whether these forms of disclosure reflect firms' real efforts to combat corruption or are cheap talk.... View Details
Keywords: Corruption; Corporate Performance; Growth; Disclosure; Disclosure Strategy; Sustainability; Crime and Corruption; Corporate Disclosure; Performance; Sales
Healy, Paul M., and George Serafeim. "An Analysis of Firms' Self-reported Anticorruption Efforts." Accounting Review 91, no. 2 (March 2016): 489–511.
- Article
On the Political Economy of Temporary Stabilization Programs
By: Laura Alfaro
This paper provides a political economy explanation for temporary exchange-rate-based stabilization programs by focusing on the distributional effects of real exchange-rate appreciation. I propose an economy in which agents are endowed with either tradable or... View Details
Keywords: Government and Politics; Economy; Balance and Stability; Programs; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash; Value; Distribution
Alfaro, Laura. "On the Political Economy of Temporary Stabilization Programs." Economics & Politics 14, no. 2 (July 2002): 133–161.
- Article
Variance-Minimizing Monetary Policies with Lagged Price Adjustment and Rational Expectations
By: Jerry R. Green and Seppo Honkapohja
This paper considers a macroeconomic model with rational expectations in which prices are incompletely flexible. Markets therefore fail to clear. In such a model monetary policy is not neutral. The variance of real and nominal quantities and interest rates is sensitive... View Details
Green, Jerry R., and Seppo Honkapohja. "Variance-Minimizing Monetary Policies with Lagged Price Adjustment and Rational Expectations." European Economic Review 20, nos. 1-3 (January 1983): 123–141.
- Article
Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details
Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
- April 2008 (Revised December 2008)
- Case
North Goes East
By: Nicolas P. Retsinas, Daniela Beyersdorfer and Elena Corsi
In August 2006, Magnus Lofgren and Robert Provine, managing directors and co-founders of the "North Real Estate Opportunities Fund," need to decide which real estate investment the Fund should pursue as its first project. The Fund's target region, Central and Eastern... View Details
Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Investment Funds; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Opportunities; Real Estate Industry; Europe
Retsinas, Nicolas P., Daniela Beyersdorfer, and Elena Corsi. "North Goes East." Harvard Business School Case 208-136, April 2008. (Revised December 2008.)
- Research Summary
On the Political Economy of Stabilization Programs
By: Laura Alfaro
This paper provides a political economy explanation for temporary exchange-rate-based stabilization programs by focusing on the distributional effects of real exchange-rate appreciation. I propose an economy in which agents are endowed with either tradable or... View Details