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- Faculty Publications (151)
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- All HBS Web (387)
- Faculty Publications (151)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Design of Panel Experiments with Spatial and Temporal Interference
By: Tu Ni, Iavor Bojinov and Jinglong Zhao
One of the main practical challenges companies face when running experiments (or A/B tests) over a panel is interference, the setting where one experimental unit's treatment assignment at one time period impacts another's outcomes, possibly at the following time... View Details
Keywords: Research
Ni, Tu, Iavor Bojinov, and Jinglong Zhao. "Design of Panel Experiments with Spatial and Temporal Interference." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-058, March 2024.
Design of Panel Experiments with Spatial and Temporal Interference
One of the main practical challenges companies face when running experiments (or A/B tests) over a panel is interference, the setting where one experimental unit's treatment assignment at one time period impacts another's outcomes, possibly at the following time... View Details
Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data,... View Details
Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments
Switchback experiments, where a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to random treatments, are among the most prevalent designs used in the technology sector, with applications ranging from ride-hailing platforms to online marketplaces. Although... View Details
- Article
Using Fresh Starts to Nudge Increased Retirement Savings
By: John Beshears, Hengchen Dai, Katherine L. Milkman and Shlomo Benartzi
We conducted a field experiment to study the effect of framing future moments in time as new beginnings (or “fresh starts”). University employees (N=6,082) received mailings with an opportunity to choose between increasing their contributions to a savings plan... View Details
Keywords: Choice Architecture; Randomized Field Experiment; Savings; New Beginning; Fresh Start; Saving; Retirement; Behavior
Beshears, John, Hengchen Dai, Katherine L. Milkman, and Shlomo Benartzi. "Using Fresh Starts to Nudge Increased Retirement Savings." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 167 (November 2021): 72–87.
- Spring 2016
- Article
Has Social Science Taken Over Electoral Campaigns and Should We Regret It?
By: Vincent Pons
Pons, Vincent. "Has Social Science Taken Over Electoral Campaigns and Should We Regret It?" French Politics, Culture and Society 34, no. 1 (Spring 2016): 34–47.
- May 18, 2012
- Article
Randomized Government Safety Inspections Reduce Worker Injuries with No Detectable Job Loss
By: David I Levine, Michael W. Toffel and Matthew S. Johnson
Controversy surrounds occupational health and safety regulators, with some observers claiming that workplace regulations damage firms' competitiveness and destroy jobs and others arguing that they make workplaces safer at little cost to employers and employees. We... View Details
Keywords: Regulation; Occupational Safety; Evaluation; Regression; Matching; Difference In Differences; Safety; Health; Working Conditions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Competitive Advantage; Performance; Manufacturing Industry; California
Levine, David I., Michael W. Toffel, and Matthew S. Johnson. "Randomized Government Safety Inspections Reduce Worker Injuries with No Detectable Job Loss." Science 336, no. 6083 (May 18, 2012): 907–911. (Online supplement (appendix). Featured in an article by the head of US OSHA, and in U.S. News & World Report and many other news outlets. Basis of U.S. Congressional testimony on promoting safe workplaces.)
- 16 Oct 2008
- Working Paper Summaries
Making the Gambler’s Fallacy Disappear: The Role of Experience
Keywords: by Gregory M. Barron & Stephen Leider
- November 2021
- Article
Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective
By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative... View Details
Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods
Bojinov, Iavor, Ashesh Rambachan, and Neil Shephard. "Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective." Quantitative Economics 12, no. 4 (November 2021): 1171–1196.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France
By: Vincent Pons
This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in François Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized... View Details
Pons, Vincent. "Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-079, January 2016. (American Economic Review (forthcoming).)
Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France
This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in Francois Hollande’s campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized... View Details
- June 2018
- Article
Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France
By: Vincent Pons
This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in François Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized... View Details
Pons, Vincent. "Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France." American Economic Review 108, no. 6 (June 2018): 1322–1363. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-079, January 2016.)
- Article
Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
By: Thiemo Fetzer and Thomas Graeber
Contact tracing has for decades been a cornerstone of the public health approach to epidemics, including Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and now COVID-19. It has not yet been possible, however, to causally assess the method’s effectiveness using a randomized... View Details
Fetzer, Thiemo, and Thomas Graeber. "Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 33 (August 17, 2021): 1–4.
- March 2020
- Article
A Revolution in Economics? It's Just Getting Started...
By: Shawn A. Cole, William Pariente and Anja Sautmann
We have each experienced thrills and pain while supporting the mission of the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, which facilitated many of the experiments described in the 2019 Nobel Prize citation. J-PAL in many ways seeks to fulfill what Angrist and Pischke... View Details
Cole, Shawn A., William Pariente, and Anja Sautmann. "A Revolution in Economics? It's Just Getting Started..." Art. 104849. World Development 127 (March 2020).
- 2014
- Working Paper
Savings in Transnational Households: A Field Experiment Among Migrants from El Salvador
By: Nava Ashraf, Diego Aycinena, Claudia Martinez A. and Dean Yang
While remittance flows to developing countries are very large, it is unknown whether migrants desire more control over how remittances are used. This research uses a randomized field experiment to investigate the importance of migrant control over the use of... View Details
Keywords: Migration; Remittances; Intrahousehold Allocation; Savings; Immigration; Diasporas; International Finance; El Salvador
Ashraf, Nava, Diego Aycinena, Claudia Martinez A., and Dean Yang. "Savings in Transnational Households: A Field Experiment Among Migrants from El Salvador." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 20024, March 2014. (Review of Economics and Statistics, accepted.)
- January 2024
- Article
Helping Children Catch Up: Early Life Shocks and the PROGRESA Experiment
By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Theresa Molina, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo
Can investing in children who faced adverse events in early childhood help them catch up? We answer this question using two orthogonal sources of variation – resource availability at birth (local rainfall) and cash incentives for school enrollment – to identify the... View Details
Adhvaryu, Achyuta, Theresa Molina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. "Helping Children Catch Up: Early Life Shocks and the PROGRESA Experiment." Economic Journal 134, no. 657 (January 2024): 1–22.
- Article
Savings in Transnational Households: A Field Experiment Among Migrants from El Salvador
By: Nava Ashraf, Diego Aycinena, Claudia Martinez A. and Dean Yang
While remittance flows to developing countries are very large, it is unknown whether migrants desire more control over how remittances are used. This research uses a randomized field experiment to investigate the importance of migrant control over the use of... View Details
Keywords: Migration; Remittances; Intrahousehold Allocation; Savings; Saving; Residency; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; El Salvador; United States
Ashraf, Nava, Diego Aycinena, Claudia Martinez A., and Dean Yang. "Savings in Transnational Households: A Field Experiment Among Migrants from El Salvador." Review of Economics and Statistics 97, no. 2 (May 2015): 332–351.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Does Pension Automatic Enrollment Increase Debt? Evidence from a Large-Scale Natural Experiment
By: John Beshears, Matthew Blakstad, James J. Choi, Christopher Firth, John Gathergood, David Laibson, Richard Notley, Jesal D. Sheth, Will Sandbrook and Neil Stewart
Does automatic enrollment into retirement saving increase household debt? We study the randomized roll-out of automatic enrollment pensions to ~160,000 employers in the United Kingdom with 2-29 employees. We find that the additional savings generated through automatic... View Details
Keywords: Retirement; Saving; Personal Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Compensation and Benefits
Beshears, John, Matthew Blakstad, James J. Choi, Christopher Firth, John Gathergood, David Laibson, Richard Notley, Jesal D. Sheth, Will Sandbrook, and Neil Stewart. "Does Pension Automatic Enrollment Increase Debt? Evidence from a Large-Scale Natural Experiment." Working Paper, October 2024.
- Article
Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)
By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
An inherent risk of algorithmic personalization is disproportionate targeting of individuals from certain groups (or demographic characteristics such as gender or race), even when the decision maker does not intend to discriminate based on those “protected”... View Details
Keywords: Algorithm Bias; Personalization; Targeting; Generalized Random Forests (GRF); Discrimination; Customization and Personalization; Decision Making; Fairness; Mathematical Methods
Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)." e2115126119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 11 (March 8, 2022).
- 2013
- Working Paper
How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment
By: Shawn Cole, Xavier Gine and James Vickery
Weather is a key source of income risk, particularly in emerging market economies. This paper uses a randomized controlled trial involving a sample of Indian farmers to study how an innovative rainfall insurance product affects production decisions. We find that... View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Production; Weather; Insurance; Emerging Markets; Agribusiness; Insurance Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; India
Cole, Shawn, Xavier Gine, and James Vickery. "How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-080, March 2013. (Revised September 2014.)