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      • April 12, 2023
      • Article

      Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World

      By: Das Narayandas and Arijit Sengupta
      Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Competitive Advantage
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      Narayandas, Das, and Arijit Sengupta. "Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (April 12, 2023).
      • April 2023
      • Article

      The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity

      By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
      We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details
      Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Firm Level Data; Innovation; Productivity; Exporting; Importing; Credit Constraints; Currency Exchange Rate; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity
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      Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity." Journal of the European Economic Association 21, no. 2 (April 2023): 637–689.
      • February 2023
      • Article

      Disruption and Credit Markets

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      We show that over the past half century innovative disruptions were central to understanding corporate defaults. In a given year, industries experiencing abnormally high VC or IPO activity subsequently see higher default rates, higher segment exits by conglomerates,... View Details
      Keywords: Default; Corporate Bonds; Disruption; Corporate Finance; Bonds
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Disruption and Credit Markets." Journal of Finance 78, no. 1 (February 2023): 105–139.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Life After Death: A Field Experiment with Small Businesses on Information Frictions, Stigma, and Bankruptcy

      By: Shai Benjamin Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Mitchell Hoffman and Benjamin Iverson
      In a randomized control trial (RCT) with U.S. small businesses, we document that a large share of firms are not well-informed about bankruptcy. Many assume that bankruptcy necessarily entails the death of a business and do not know about Chapter 11 bankruptcy, where... View Details
      Keywords: Small Business; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Knowledge Dissemination; Outcome or Result
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      Bernstein, Shai Benjamin, Emanuele Colonnelli, Mitchell Hoffman, and Benjamin Iverson. "Life After Death: A Field Experiment with Small Businesses on Information Frictions, Stigma, and Bankruptcy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30933, February 2023.
      • January 2023
      • Article

      Firm-Induced Migration Paths and Strategic Human-Capital Outcomes

      By: Prithwiraj (Raj) Choudhury, Tarun Khanna and Victoria Sevcenko
      Firm-induced migration typically entails firms relocating workers to fill value-creating positions at destination locations. But such relocated workers are often exposed to external employment opportunities at their destinations, possibly triggering turnover. We... View Details
      Keywords: Worker Relocation; Turnover; Firm-induced Migration; Smaller Towns; Employee Mobility; Geographic Mobility; Migration; Clusters; Employees; Geographic Location; Performance; Opportunities; Retention; Human Capital; Talent and Talent Management
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj (Raj), Tarun Khanna, and Victoria Sevcenko. "Firm-Induced Migration Paths and Strategic Human-Capital Outcomes." Management Science 69, no. 1 (January 2023): 419–445.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Market for CEOs: Evidence from Private Equity

      By: Paul A. Gompers, Steven N. Kaplan and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
      Most research on the CEO labor market studies public company CEOs while largely ignoring CEOs in private equity (PE) funded companies. We fill this gap by studying the market for CEOs among U.S. companies purchased by PE firms in large leveraged buyout transactions.... View Details
      Keywords: CEOs; Jobs and Positions; Ownership; Recruitment
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      Gompers, Paul A., Steven N. Kaplan, and Vladimir Mukharlyamov. "The Market for CEOs: Evidence from Private Equity." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30899, April 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
      • December 2022
      • Article

      When and How Should Firms Differentiate? Quality and Advertising Decisions in a Duopoly

      By: Dominique Olié Lauga, Elie Ofek and Zsolt Katona
      A prominent hallmark of competitive interaction is the desire to differentiate from rivals. In this article, the authors examine under what conditions firms will differentiate through product quality versus advertising intensity. Firms select quality in a first stage,... View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Advertising; Product Positioning
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      Lauga, Dominique Olié, Elie Ofek, and Zsolt Katona. "When and How Should Firms Differentiate? Quality and Advertising Decisions in a Duopoly." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 59, no. 2 (December 2022): 1252–1265.
      • September 2022
      • Article

      Experimentation and Start-up Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing

      By: Rembrand Koning, Sharique Hasan and Aaron Chatterji
      Recent scholarship has argued that experimentation should be the organizing principle for entrepreneurial strategy. Experimentation leads to organizational learning, which drives improvements in firm performance. We investigate this proposition by exploiting the... View Details
      Keywords: Experimentation; A/B Testing; Data-driven Decision-making; Organizational Learning; Entrepreneurship; Strategy; Business Startups; Learning; Performance; Decision Making
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      Koning, Rembrand, Sharique Hasan, and Aaron Chatterji. "Experimentation and Start-up Performance: Evidence from A/B Testing." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 6434–6453.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Automating Short-Term Payroll Savings: Evidence from Two Large U.K. Experiments

      By: Sarah Holmes Berk, James J. Choi, Jay Garg, John Beshears and David Laibson
      Automatic enrollment is often used to increase retirement savings. What are the effects of using it (or, alternatively, requiring an active enrollment choice) to increase short-term savings? We evaluate two experiments in the U.K. at employers that enable workers to... View Details
      Keywords: Retirement Savings; Participation; Automatic Enrollment; Retirement; Human Resources
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      Berk, Sarah Holmes, James J. Choi, Jay Garg, John Beshears, and David Laibson. "Automating Short-Term Payroll Savings: Evidence from Two Large U.K. Experiments." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32581, June 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Do Collusive Norms Maximize Profits? Evidence From a Vegetable Market Experiment in India

      By: Abhijit Banerjee, Greg Fischer, Dean Karlan, Matt Lowe and Benjamin N. Roth
      Social norms have been shown to facilitate anti-competitive behavior in decentralized markets. We demonstrate that these norms can also reduce aggregate profits. First, we present descriptive evidence of competition-suppressing norms in Kolkata vegetable markets.... View Details
      Keywords: Collusion; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Small Business; Microeconomics; Kolkata
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      Banerjee, Abhijit, Greg Fischer, Dean Karlan, Matt Lowe, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Do Collusive Norms Maximize Profits? Evidence From a Vegetable Market Experiment in India." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-006, July 2022. (Revise and Resubmit, AEJ: Applied.)
      • July 2022
      • Case

      Yinglan Tan: Scaling a Venture Capital Firm in Southeast Asia

      By: Josh Lerner and Richard Zhu
      Yinglan Tan considered the future of his young Singapore-based venture capital firm. On the one hand, the intuition that was behind the initial creation of Insignia in 2017 had been proven correct. The venture capital market in Southeast Asia had grown rapidly, driven... View Details
      Keywords: E-commerce; Scalability; Globalized Markets and Industries; Venture Capital; International Finance; Growth and Development; Expansion
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      Lerner, Josh, and Richard Zhu. "Yinglan Tan: Scaling a Venture Capital Firm in Southeast Asia." Harvard Business School Case 823-025, July 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Retail Investors’ Contrarian Behavior Around News, Attention, and the Momentum Effect

      By: Cheng (Patrick) Luo, Enrichetta Ravina, Marco Sammon and Luis M. Viceira
      Using a large panel of U.S. brokerage accounts trades and positions, we show that a large fraction of retail investors trade as contrarians after large earnings surprises, especially for loser stocks, and that such contrarian trading contributes to post earnings... View Details
      Keywords: Retail Investors; Post Earnings Announcement Drift; Price Momentum; Behavioral Finance; Investment; Demographics
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      Luo, Cheng (Patrick), Enrichetta Ravina, Marco Sammon, and Luis M. Viceira. "Retail Investors’ Contrarian Behavior Around News, Attention, and the Momentum Effect." Working Paper, June 2022.
      • 2022
      • Chapter

      Lessons Learned from Support to Business during COVID-19

      By: Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Benjamin Iverson and Adi Sunderam
      The authors survey the new federal subsidies and loans provided to businesses in the first year of the pandemic—including the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program, and aid targeted at specific industries such as airlines... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Small Business; Government Legislation; Policy
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      Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, Benjamin Iverson, and Adi Sunderam. "Lessons Learned from Support to Business during COVID-19." Chap. 4 in Recession Remedies: Lessons Learned from the U.S. Economic Policy Response to COVID-19, edited by Wendy Edelberg, Louise Sheiner, and David Wessel, 123–162. Brookings Institution Press, 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Supplement

      MicroStrategy: Accounting for Cryptocurrency (B)

      By: Jonas Heese and Annelena Lobb
      In early 2022, the technology firm MicroStrategy unveiled a series of letters with the SEC that questioned its accounting practices around its holdings of Bitcoin. Since 2020, the firm had shifted its strategy to include not just selling software but buying and holding... View Details
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Bitcoin; Holding Structures; SEC; Accounting; Finance; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry
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      Heese, Jonas, and Annelena Lobb. "MicroStrategy: Accounting for Cryptocurrency (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 122-079, April 2022.
      • March 2022
      • Case

      Metric

      By: Christina Wallace, Rebecca Cink and Maria Lappas
      Megan Murday, the founder of Metric, an environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) analytics startup, must decide which customer segment to target as a beachhead market. She received positive feedback from a Swiss venture capital (VC) firm, indicating their... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Marketing; Mission and Purpose; Customers
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      Wallace, Christina, Rebecca Cink, and Maria Lappas. "Metric." Harvard Business School Case 822-057, March 2022.
      • Article

      Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are... View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Gender Gaps in Venture Capital Performance

      By: Paul A. Gompers, Vladimir Muhkarlyamov, Emily Weisburst and Yuhai Xuan
      We explore gender differences in performance in a comprehensive sample of venture capital investments in the United States. Investments by female venture capital investors have significantly lower success rates than investments by their male colleagues when controlling... View Details
      Keywords: Venture Capital; Investment; Performance; Gender
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      Gompers, Paul A., Vladimir Muhkarlyamov, Emily Weisburst, and Yuhai Xuan. "Gender Gaps in Venture Capital Performance." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 57, no. 2 (March 2022): 485–513.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects

      By: Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina and Ali Ozdagli
      High-yield debt including leveraged loans is characterized by incurrence financial covenants, or “cov-lite” provisions. A traditional loan agreement includes maintenance covenants, which require continuous compliance with the covenant threshold, and their violation... View Details
      Keywords: Debt Covenants; Incurrence Covenants; Borrowing and Debt; Banks and Banking
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      Bräuning, Falk, Victoria Ivashina, and Ali Ozdagli. "High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29888, March 2022.
      • February 2022
      • Case

      NFX Capital and Moov Technologies

      By: Scott Duke Kominers and Nicole Tempest Keller
      In July 2019, James Currier, a general partner at San Francisco-based NFX Ventures, was considering a seed stage investment of $1.5 million in Moov Technologies, a B2B marketplace for used industrial equipment. NFX was a venture capital firm focused on seed-stage... View Details
      Keywords: Venture Capital; Network Effects; Marketplace Matching; Digital Platforms; Market Design; Applications and Software; Semiconductor Industry; Financial Services Industry; San Francisco
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      Kominers, Scott Duke, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "NFX Capital and Moov Technologies." Harvard Business School Case 822-045, February 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Missing Novelty in Drug Development

      By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
      We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to... View Details
      Keywords: Drug Development; Risk Aversion; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention; Investment; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Krieger, Joshua, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Missing Novelty in Drug Development." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 2 (February 2022): 636–679.
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