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      • January 2024
      • Supplement

      Winning Business at Russell Reynolds

      By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco
      In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting—and... View Details
      Keywords: Restructuring; Talent and Talent Management; Compensation and Benefits; Growth and Development Strategy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Performance Evaluation; Motivation and Incentives; Consulting Industry
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      Bernstein, Ethan, and Cara Mazzucco. "Winning Business at Russell Reynolds." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 424-704, January 2024.
      • January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
      • Supplement

      Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth

      By: Mark Egan
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      Egan, Mark. "Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 224-727, January 2024. (Revised February 2024.)
      • January 2024 (Revised May 2024)
      • Case

      Uncle Nearest: Creating a Legacy

      By: Hise Gibson, Archie L. Jones, Nicole Gilmore and Ai-Ling Jamila Malone
      Fawn Weaver, as a Black woman and industry outsider in a capital-intensive, highly regulated, competitive and male-dominated spirits industry, successfully overcame numerous obstacles to launch a premium American whiskey brand, Uncle Nearest in 2017, which became the... View Details
      Keywords: Advertising; Business Startups; Customer Focus and Relationships; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Age; Ethnicity; Gender; Entrepreneurship; Working Capital; Innovation Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Intellectual Property; Trademarks; Leadership Style; Growth and Development; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Marketing; Product Launch; Marketing Strategy; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Culture; Private Ownership; Performance Effectiveness; Strategic Planning; Problems and Challenges; Prejudice and Bias; Social Issues; Competition; Competitive Strategy; Expansion; Entrepreneurial Finance; Food and Beverage Industry; Tourism Industry; United States; Tennessee; France
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      Gibson, Hise, Archie L. Jones, Nicole Gilmore, and Ai-Ling Jamila Malone. "Uncle Nearest: Creating a Legacy." Harvard Business School Case 824-047, January 2024. (Revised May 2024.)
      • January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
      • Case

      Data-Driven Denim: Financial Forecasting at Levi Strauss

      By: Mark Egan
      The case examines Levi Strauss’ journey in implementing machine learning and AI into its financial forecasting process. The apparel company partnered with the IT company Wipro in 2017 to develop a machine learning algorithm that could help Levi Strauss forecast its... View Details
      Keywords: Investor Relations; Forecasting; Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence; Apparel; Corporate Finance; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Digital Transformation; Apparel and Accessories Industry; United States
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      Egan, Mark. "Data-Driven Denim: Financial Forecasting at Levi Strauss." Harvard Business School Case 224-029, January 2024. (Revised February 2024.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Lost in Transmission

      By: Thomas Graeber, Shakked Noy and Christopher Roth
      For many decisions, people rely on information received from others by word of mouth. How does the process of verbal transmission distort economic information? In our experiments, participants listen to audio recordings containing economic forecasts and are paid to... View Details
      Keywords: Information Trnasmission; Word Of Mouth; Word-of-Mouth; Narratives; Reliability; Knowledge Sharing; Spoken Communication; Cognition and Thinking
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      Graeber, Thomas, Shakked Noy, and Christopher Roth. "Lost in Transmission." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-047, January 2024.
      • December 2023
      • Article

      Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting

      By: Braiden Coleman, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
      In this study, we offer novel evidence on how the nature of brokerage-client relationships can influence the quality of equity research. We exploit a unique setting provided by the Protocol for Broker Recruiting to examine whether relaxed broker non-compete agreement... View Details
      Keywords: Brokers; Analysts; Forecasts; Bias; Protocol; Investment; Research; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Coleman, Braiden, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting." Review of Accounting Studies 28, no. 4 (December 2023): 2075–2103.
      • December 2023
      • Other Article

      Introduction to the Special Section on Business and Climate Change

      By: Rajesh Chandy, Glen Dowell, Colin Mayer, Erica Plambeck, George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel, L. Beril Toktay and Elke Weber
      Keywords: Climate Change; Adaptation; Policy; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Innovation and Invention; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Chandy, Rajesh, Glen Dowell, Colin Mayer, Erica Plambeck, George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel, L. Beril Toktay, and Elke Weber. "Introduction to the Special Section on Business and Climate Change." Management Science 69, no. 12 (December 2023): 7347–7351.
      • November 2023
      • Article

      Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality

      By: Mark Bradshaw, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
      We examine how brokerage firm initial public offerings (IPOs) influence the research quality of sell-side analysts employed by the brokerage. Our main results focus on earnings forecast bias and absolute forecast errors as proxies for research quality. Using a... View Details
      Keywords: IPOs; Research Analysts; "Brokerage Industry; Initial Public Offering; Employees; Behavior; Outcome or Result
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      Bradshaw, Mark, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality." Management Science 69, no. 11 (November 2023): 7079–7094.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Do Active Funds Do Better in What They Trade?

      By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
      We develop two new, simple measures to quantify active fund decisions at the individual position level. The intuition is to separate passive rebalancing induced by flows and position changes from active rebalancing decisions. We find that additive active rebalancing --... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Financial Management
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      Sammon, Marco, and John J. Shim. "Do Active Funds Do Better in What They Trade?" Working Paper, November 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
      Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio." Working Paper, November 2023.
      • October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
      • Case

      KOKO Networks: Bridging Energy Transition and Affordability with Carbon Financing

      By: George Serafeim, Siko Sikochi and Namrata Arora
      The problem was massive: two million hectares of African forests were lost annually to charcoal production for cooking, an area equivalent to 13 times Greater London, resulting in one billion tons of carbon emissions yearly. At the same time, an estimated 700,000... View Details
      Keywords: Clean Tech; Digital; Carbon Credits; Carbon Offsetting; Climate Change; Entrepreneurship; Energy Sources; Environmental Sustainability; Health; Market Design; Business Startups; Transition; Environmental Regulation; Policy; Energy Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Africa; Kenya; Rwanda
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      Serafeim, George, Siko Sikochi, and Namrata Arora. "KOKO Networks: Bridging Energy Transition and Affordability with Carbon Financing." Harvard Business School Case 124-022, October 2023. (Revised March 2024.)
      • October 2023 (Revised January 2024)
      • Case

      Ball: EVA Driving the World's Leading Can Manufacturer (A)

      By: Jonas Heese and Susan Pinckney
      The case describes Ball’s multi decade history of using Economic Value Added to drive decision making and workforce compensation. In 2016, the company acquired Rexam PLC and became the world’s leading metal beverage container company. Consumer demand for varied... View Details
      Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Cost Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Buildings and Facilities; Green Building; Mergers and Acquisitions; Customer Satisfaction; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Machinery and Machining; Asset Pricing; Corporate Finance; Capital; Cost; Financial Management; Goods and Commodities; Compensation and Benefits; Executive Compensation; Employee Relationship Management; Goals and Objectives; Resource Allocation; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Arizona; California; Texas
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      Heese, Jonas, and Susan Pinckney. "Ball: EVA Driving the World's Leading Can Manufacturer (A)." Harvard Business School Case 124-002, October 2023. (Revised January 2024.)
      • October 2023
      • Article

      Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA

      By: Matthew S. Johnson, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel
      We study how a regulator can best target inspections. Our case study is a U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) program that randomly allocated some inspections. On average, each inspection averted 2.4 serious injuries (9%) over the next five years.... View Details
      Keywords: Safety Regulations; Regulations; Regulatory Enforcement; Machine Learning Models; Safety; Operations; Service Operations; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Decisions; United States
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      Johnson, Matthew S., David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel. "Improving Regulatory Effectiveness Through Better Targeting: Evidence from OSHA." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 15, no. 4 (October 2023): 30–67. (Profiled in the Regulatory Review.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Input Inaccuracy on Leveraging AI Tools: Evidence from Algorithmic Labor Scheduling

      By: Caleb Kwon, Antonio Moreno and Ananth Raman
      Problem Definition: Considerable academic and practitioner attention is placed on the value of ex-post interactions (i.e., overrides) in the human-AI interface. In contrast, relatively little attention has been paid to ex-ante human-AI interactions (e.g., the... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Employees; Performance Effectiveness
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      Kwon, Caleb, Antonio Moreno, and Ananth Raman. "The Impact of Input Inaccuracy on Leveraging AI Tools: Evidence from Algorithmic Labor Scheduling." Working Paper, January 2025.
      • September 2023 (Revised January 2024)
      • Case

      AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19

      By: Mark Egan, C. Fritz Foley, Esel Cekin and Emilie Billaud
      In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a workforce of 160,000 in 2020, AB InBev... View Details
      Keywords: Beer; Forecasting; COVID-19; Decision; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Crisis Management; Decisions; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Resource Allocation; Distribution; Production; Business Processes; Strategic Planning; Health Pandemics; Digital Transformation; Markets; Food and Beverage Industry; Belgium; Europe; Latin America; North and Central America
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      Egan, Mark, C. Fritz Foley, Esel Cekin, and Emilie Billaud. "AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19." Harvard Business School Case 224-020, September 2023. (Revised January 2024.)
      • September 2023 (Revised September 2024)
      • Technical Note

      Measuring and Managing Social Impact

      By: Brian Trelstad, Gerald Chertavian and Susan Pinckney
      A brief overview of how to measure social impact at nonprofits, social organizations, and impact investments. View Details
      Keywords: Analysis; Change; Transformation; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Public Sector; Entrepreneurship; Social Entrepreneurship; Fairness; Entrepreneurial Finance; Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Policy; Innovation and Management; Knowledge Acquisition; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Goals and Objectives; Growth and Development Strategy; Growth Management; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Practices and Processes; Resource Allocation; Measurement and Metrics; Standards; Strength and Weakness; Mission and Purpose; Success; Performance; Performance Evaluation; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Strategic Planning; Programs; Risk and Uncertainty; Social Enterprise; Non-Governmental Organizations; Social Issues; United States
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      Trelstad, Brian, Gerald Chertavian, and Susan Pinckney. "Measuring and Managing Social Impact." Harvard Business School Technical Note 324-017, September 2023. (Revised September 2024.)
      • September 2023 (Revised December 2023)
      • Case

      TetraScience: Noise and Signal

      By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Tom Quinn
      In 2019, TetraScience CEO “Spin” Wang needed advice. Five years earlier, he had cofounded a startup that saw early success with a hardware product designed to help laboratory scientists in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical spaces more easily collect data from... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Organization; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Digital Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Organizational Structure; Network Effects; Competitive Strategy; Biotechnology Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States; Boston
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      Eisenmann, Thomas R., and Tom Quinn. "TetraScience: Noise and Signal." Harvard Business School Case 824-024, September 2023. (Revised December 2023.)
      • September 2023 (Revised February 2024)
      • Case

      Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth

      By: Mark Egan
      As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details
      Keywords: Inventory; Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financing and Loans; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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      Egan, Mark. "Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth." Harvard Business School Case 224-023, September 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
      • September 2023 (Revised October 2024)
      • Case

      Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus

      By: Mark Egan and Peter Tufano
      In late 2021, Ben Carr, Director of Analytics and Capital Modeling at Aviva Plc (Aviva)—a leading insurer with core operations in the UK, Ireland and Canada,—was preparing for an upcoming presentation before the company's board which included its CEO, Amanda Blanc,... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Finance; Forecasting; Insurance; Risk Measurement; Climate Change; Risk Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance Industry; United States
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      Egan, Mark, and Peter Tufano. "Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus." Harvard Business School Case 224-025, September 2023. (Revised October 2024.)
      • September 2023
      • Supplement

      Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth (B)

      By: Mark Egan
      As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details
      Keywords: Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Expansion; Production; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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      Egan, Mark. "Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 224-024, September 2023.
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