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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (553)

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Evaluations Amid Measurement Error: Determining the Optimal Timing for Workplace Interventions

      By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Iavor I. Bojinov and Fiammetta Menchetti
      Researchers have embraced factorial experiments to simultaneously evaluate multiple treatments, each with different levels. Typically, in large-scale factorial experiments, the primary objective is identifying the treatment with the largest causal effect, especially... View Details
      Keywords: Factorial Designs; Fisher Randomizations; Rank Estimators; Employer Interventions; Causal Inference; Mathematical Methods; Performance Improvement
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      DosSantos DiSorbo, Matthew, Iavor I. Bojinov, and Fiammetta Menchetti. "Evaluations Amid Measurement Error: Determining the Optimal Timing for Workplace Interventions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-075, June 2024. (Revised May 2025.)
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy

      By: Tina Highfill and Matthew Weinzierl
      Accurately measuring real economic output in the space economy is made difficult by the rapid increase in capabilities and decrease in prices of launch and satellite technologies achieved over the past two decades. Nominal measures of output in space will tend to... View Details
      Keywords: Technological Innovation; Economic Growth; Price; Production; Aerospace Industry
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      Highfill, Tina, and Matthew Weinzierl. "Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy." Acta Astronautica 219 (June 2024): 236–242.
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices

      By: Jason Shafrin, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington and Richard Willke
      This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories—such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness’s... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Valuation; Cost vs Benefits; Society
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      Shafrin, Jason, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington, and Richard Willke. "Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices." Forum of Health Economics and Policy 27, no. 1 (June 2024): 29–116.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda

      By: Saheel Chodavadia, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr and Louis Maiden
      Immigrants contribute disproportionately to entrepreneurship in many countries, accounting for a quarter of new employer businesses in the US. We review recent research on the measurement of immigrant entrepreneurship, the traits of immigrant founders, their economic... View Details
      Keywords: Immigrant Employment; Immigration; Entrepreneurship; Demographics; Innovation and Invention
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      Chodavadia, Saheel, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr, and Louis Maiden. "Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-068, April 2024.
      • May 2024
      • Article

      True Costs of Uterine Artery Embolization: Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing in Interventional Radiology Over a 3-Year Period

      By: Julia C. Bulman, Nicole H. Kim, Robert S. Kaplan, Sarah Schroeppel DeBacker, Olga R. Brook and Ammar Sarwar
      The study used time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) to estimate the costs to perform uterine artery embolization (UAE). Utilization times for patients undergoing outpatient UAE for fibroids or adenomyosis were captured from electronic health record timestamps and... View Details
      Keywords: Cost Accounting; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry
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      Bulman, Julia C., Nicole H. Kim, Robert S. Kaplan, Sarah Schroeppel DeBacker, Olga R. Brook, and Ammar Sarwar. "True Costs of Uterine Artery Embolization: Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing in Interventional Radiology Over a 3-Year Period." Journal of the American College of Radiology 21, no. 5 (May 2024): 721–728.
      • April 2024
      • Article

      Detecting Routines: Applications to Ridesharing CRM

      By: Ryan Dew, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Nachum Sicherman
      Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines—which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal... View Details
      Keywords: Ride-sharing; Routine; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Segmentation
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      Dew, Ryan, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer, and Nachum Sicherman. "Detecting Routines: Applications to Ridesharing CRM." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 2 (April 2024): 368–392.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States

      By: Amory Gethin and Vincent Pons
      Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes.... View Details
      Keywords: Attitudes; Social Issues; Voting; Public Opinion; Social Media
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      Gethin, Amory, and Vincent Pons. "Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32342, April 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments

      By: Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Francis Wong and Wesley Yin
      Two in five Americans have medical debt, nearly half of whom owe at least $2,500. Concerned by this burden, governments and private donors have undertaken large, high-profile efforts to relieve medical debt. We partnered with RIP Medical Debt to conduct two randomized... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Outcome or Result; Well-being; Personal Finance
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      Kluender, Raymond, Neale Mahoney, Francis Wong, and Wesley Yin. "The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32315, April 2024.
      • March 2024 (Revised April 2024)
      • Case

      Angel City Football Club: Scoring a New Model

      By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Jennifer Fonstad and Nicole Tempest Keller
      In January 2024, Kara Nortman, Julie Uhrman, and Natalie Portman, the founders of Angel City Football Club (ACFC) were developing the club’s first three-year strategic plan. Founded in 2020, ACFC had a star-studded investor group, including Portman and celebrities such... View Details
      Keywords: Sports; Entertainment; Entrepreneurship; Brands and Branding; Venture Capital; Business Model; Corporate Strategy; Digital Marketing; Sports Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States; California; Los Angeles
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      Rayport, Jeffrey F., Jennifer Fonstad, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "Angel City Football Club: Scoring a New Model." Harvard Business School Case 824-192, March 2024. (Revised April 2024.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Cram Method for Efficient Simultaneous Learning and Evaluation

      By: Zeyang Jia, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
      We introduce the "cram" method, a general and efficient approach to simultaneous learning and evaluation using a generic machine learning (ML) algorithm. In a single pass of batched data, the proposed method repeatedly trains an ML algorithm and tests its empirical... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning
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      Jia, Zeyang, Kosuke Imai, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "The Cram Method for Efficient Simultaneous Learning and Evaluation." Working Paper, March 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Anytime-Valid Inference in Linear Models and Regression-Adjusted Causal Inference

      By: Michael Lindon, Dae Woong Ham, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
      Linear regression adjustment is commonly used to analyze randomized controlled experiments due to its efficiency and robustness against model misspecification. Current testing and interval estimation procedures leverage the asymptotic distribution of such estimators to... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science
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      Lindon, Michael, Dae Woong Ham, Martin Tingley, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "Anytime-Valid Inference in Linear Models and Regression-Adjusted Causal Inference." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-060, March 2024.
      • March 2024
      • Article

      Do Safety Management System Standards Indicate Safer Operations? Evidence from the OHSAS 18001 Occupational Health and Safety Standard

      By: Kala Viswanathan, Matthew S. Johnson and Michael W. Toffel
      Problem definition: Given the enormous disruptions and costs of occupational injuries, companies and buyers are increasingly looking to voluntary occupational health and safety standards to improve worker safety. Yet because these standards only require... View Details
      Keywords: Occupational Health; Occupational Safety; Program Evaluation; Safety Performance; Injuries; OHSAS 18001; ISO 45001; Working Conditions; Safety; Standards
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      Viswanathan, Kala, Matthew S. Johnson, and Michael W. Toffel. "Do Safety Management System Standards Indicate Safer Operations? Evidence from the OHSAS 18001 Occupational Health and Safety Standard." Art. 106383. Safety Science 171 (March 2024).
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War

      By: Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen and Sung-Ju Wu
      This paper introduces a new measure of tariff evasion through rerouting and applies it to the 2018 U.S.–China trade war, focusing on Vietnam as a transit country. We use transaction-level trade data and define rerouting as the flow of a granular eight-digit Harmonized... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; International Relations; Logistics; China; Viet Nam; United States
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      Iyoha, Ebehi, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen, and Sung-Ju Wu. "Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-072, May 2024. (Revised March 2025.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Open Devices and Slices: Evidence from Wi-Fi Equipment

      By: Do Yoon Kim, Roberto Fontana and Shane Greenstein
      Prior studies suggest that openness shapes the introduction of new products. This study collects novel data on all routers and subcomponents introduced between 2000 and 2018. We characterize each firm's position in a supply chain as upstream component providers... View Details
      Keywords: Open Source Distribution; Product Development; Supply Chain
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      Kim, Do Yoon, Roberto Fontana, and Shane Greenstein. "Open Devices and Slices: Evidence from Wi-Fi Equipment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-045, January 2024.
      • February 2024
      • Article

      Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence

      By: Brian Fabo, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf and Ľuboš Pástor
      Fabo et al. (2021) show that papers written by central bank researchers find quantitative easing (QE) to be more effective than papers written by academics. Weale and Wieladek (2022) show that a subset of these results lose statistical significance when OLS regressions... View Details
      Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Research; Mathematical Methods; Perception; Banks and Banking; Body of Literature
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      Fabo, Brian, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf, and Ľuboš Pástor. "Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence." Art. 107065. Journal of Banking & Finance 159 (February 2024).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Wandering Scholars: Understanding the Heterogeneity of University Commercialization

      By: Josh Lerner, Henry Manley, Carolyn Stein and Heidi Williams
      University-based scientific research has long been argued to be a central source of commercial innovation and economic growth. Yet at the same time, there have been long-held concerns that many university-based discoveries never realize their potential social... View Details
      Keywords: Research; Higher Education; Business Startups; Innovation and Invention
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      Lerner, Josh, Henry Manley, Carolyn Stein, and Heidi Williams. "The Wandering Scholars: Understanding the Heterogeneity of University Commercialization." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-043, January 2024. (Econometrica, Conditionally Accepted.)
      • January 2024
      • Article

      A Cost Model for a Low Threshold Clinic Treating Opioid Use Disorder

      By: Sarah E. Wakeman, Elizabeth Powell, Syed Shehab, Grace Herman, Laura Kehoe and Robert S. Kaplan
      The US fee-for-service payment system under-reimburses clinics offering access to comprehensive treatments for opioid use disorder (OUD). The funding shortfall limits a clinic’s ability to expand and improve access, especially for socially marginalized patients with... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Cost; Equality and Inequality; Health Industry
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      Wakeman, Sarah E., Elizabeth Powell, Syed Shehab, Grace Herman, Laura Kehoe, and Robert S. Kaplan. "A Cost Model for a Low Threshold Clinic Treating Opioid Use Disorder." Journal of Behavioral Health Services & Research 51, no. 1 (January 2024): 22–30.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Bootstrap Diagnostics for Irregular Estimators

      By: Isaiah Andrews and Jesse M. Shapiro
      Empirical researchers frequently rely on normal approximations in order to summarize and communicate uncertainty about their findings to their scientific audience. When such approximations are unreliable, they can lead the audience to make misguided decisions. We... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Andrews, Isaiah, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Bootstrap Diagnostics for Irregular Estimators." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32038, January 2024.
      • January 2024
      • Article

      Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation

      By: Matthew Vogel, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim and Benjamin N. Rome
      Importance: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate prices for some high-spending drugs but exempts drugs approved solely for the treatment of a single rare disease.
      Objective: To estimate Medicare spending and global... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Price; Health Industry
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      Vogel, Matthew, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim, and Benjamin N. Rome. "Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation." JAMA Internal Medicine 184, no. 1 (January 2024): 63–69.
      • January 2024
      • Article

      Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger

      By: Chiara Farronato, Jessica Fong and Andrey Fradkin
      Digital platforms are increasingly the subject of regulatory scrutiny. In comparison to multiple competitors, a single platform may increase consumer welfare if network effects are large or may decrease welfare due to higher prices or reduction in platform variety. We... View Details
      Keywords: Platform Differentiation; Digital Platforms; Network Effects; Measurement and Metrics; Mergers and Acquisitions; Outcome or Result
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      Farronato, Chiara, Jessica Fong, and Andrey Fradkin. "Dog Eat Dog: Balancing Network Effects and Differentiation in a Digital Platform Merger." Management Science 70, no. 1 (January 2024): 464–483.
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