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- All HBS Web (536)
- Faculty Publications (145)
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- 2018
- Working Paper
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.
By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
Guo, Xiaojia, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-038, October 2018. (Darden Business School Working Paper, No. 2805244, July 2016.)
- 2013
- Dissertation
Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics
By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta
Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers... View Details
- June 2018
- Article
Personal and Social Usage: The Origins of Active Customers and Ways to Keep Them Engaged
By: Clarence Lee, Elie Ofek and Thomas Steenburgh
We study how digital service firms can develop an active customer base, focusing on two questions. First, how does the way that customers use the service postadoption to meet their own needs (personal usage) and to interact with one another (social usage) vary across... View Details
Keywords: Customer Engagement; Adoption Routes; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Marketing; Bayesian Estimation; Customers; Communication; Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Internet and the Web; Analytics and Data Science
Lee, Clarence, Elie Ofek, and Thomas Steenburgh. "Personal and Social Usage: The Origins of Active Customers and Ways to Keep Them Engaged." Management Science 64, no. 6 (June 2018): 2473–2495. (Lead Article.)
- April 2020
- Article
Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques
By: Shawn A. Cole, A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
Knowledge of consumer demand is important for firms, policy makers, and economists. One common tool for incentive-compatible demand elicitation, the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, has been widely used in laboratory settings but rarely evaluated for... View Details
Keywords: Incentive-compatible Elicitation; Experimental Methods; Weather Insurance; Rainfall Insurance; Agricultural Extension; Demand and Consumers
Cole, Shawn A., A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 172 (April 2020): 33–56.
- April 2020 (Revised June 2022)
- Technical Note
Quantitative Analysis in Marketing
By: Sunil Gupta
Marketing is a combination of art and science that requires both qualitative and quantitative analysis to arrive at effective decisions. This note highlights how quantitative analysis can help in the following marketing decisions: estimating market size, determining... View Details
Gupta, Sunil. "Quantitative Analysis in Marketing." Harvard Business School Technical Note 520-091, April 2020. (Revised June 2022.)
- 2016
- Working Paper
Economic Transition and Private-Sector Labor Demand: Evidence from Urban China
By: Lakshmi Iyer, Xin Meng, Nancy Qian and Xiaoxue Zhao
This paper studies the policy determinants of economic transition and estimates the elasticity demand for labor in the infant private sector in urban China. We show that a reform that untied access to housing in urban areas from working for the state sector accounts... View Details
Keywords: Economic Transition; Structural Change; Labor Mobility; Transition; Human Capital; Private Sector; China
Iyer, Lakshmi, Xin Meng, Nancy Qian, and Xiaoxue Zhao. "Economic Transition and Private-Sector Labor Demand: Evidence from Urban China." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-047, December 2013. (Revised April 2016.)
- February 2010
- Background Note
Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis
By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
Marketers frequently need to estimate the size of their markets—both for existing products so that sales forecasts can be developed and for new products so that market opportunities can be assessed. This toolkit enables students to size a market and generate a sales... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Markets; Demand and Consumers; Size; Strategic Planning; Sales
Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 510-081, February 2010.
- Fall 2019
- Article
Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals
By: Kyle Myers and Mark Pauly
We examine trends in the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector over the past three decades. Motivated by Ricardo’s insight that productivity and rents are endogenous to demand when inputs are scarce, we examine the industry’s aggregate R&D production function.... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Productivity; Pharmaceuticals; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity; Pharmaceutical Industry
Myers, Kyle, and Mark Pauly. "Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals." RAND Journal of Economics 50, no. 3 (Fall 2019): 591–614.
- 2008
- Working Paper
Allocating Marketing Resources
By: Sunil Gupta and Thomas J. Steenburgh
Marketing is essential for the organic growth of a company. Not surprisingly, firms spend billions of dollars on marketing. Given these large investments, marketing managers have the responsibility to optimally allocate these resources and demonstrate that these... View Details
Keywords: Investment Return; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
Gupta, Sunil, and Thomas J. Steenburgh. "Allocating Marketing Resources." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-069, February 2008.
- 2008
- Chapter
Allocating Marketing Resources
By: Sunil Gupta and Thomas J. Steenburgh
Companies spend billions of dollars on marketing every year because it is essential to organic growth. Given these large investments, marketing managers have the responsibility to optimally allocate resources and to demonstrate that their investments generate... View Details
Keywords: Investment Return; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
Gupta, Sunil, and Thomas J. Steenburgh. "Allocating Marketing Resources." In Marketing Mix Decisions: New Perspectives and Practices, edited by Roger A. Kerin and Rob O'Regan. Chicago, IL: American Marketing Association, 2008.
- November 2019
- Case
Gillette: Cutting Prices to Regain Share
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher
After losing market share to low-priced competitors such as Harry’s and Dollar Shave Club for several years, Gillette decided to fight back by launching new products and increasing advertising. When these efforts failed to stem the losses, Gillette decided to cut the... View Details
Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Business Strategy; Competition; Price; Public Equity; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
Esty, Benjamin C., and Daniel Fisher. "Gillette: Cutting Prices to Regain Share." Harvard Business School Case 720-378, November 2019.
- August 2024
- Article
How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?
By: Leemore S. Dafny, Kate Ho and Edward Kong
Drug copayment coupons to reduce patient cost-sharing have become nearly ubiquitous for high-priced brand-name prescription drugs. Medicare bans such coupons on the grounds that they are kickbacks that induce utilization, but they are commonly used by... View Details
Keywords: Prescription Drugs; Coupons; Impact; Health Care and Treatment; Markets; Price; Spending; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States
Dafny, Leemore S., Kate Ho, and Edward Kong. "How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?" American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 16, no. 3 (August 2024): 314–346.
- May 2009
- Article
Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads
The paper estimates the cost arising from information asymmetry between the lead bank and members of the lending syndicate. In a lending syndicate, the lead bank retains only a fraction of the loan but acts as the intermediary between the borrower and the syndicate... View Details
Keywords: Cost; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Capital; Investment Portfolio; Credit; Diversification; Risk and Uncertainty
Ivashina, Victoria. "Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads." Journal of Financial Economics 92, no. 2 (May 2009): 300–319.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Causal Interpretation of Structural IV Estimands
By: Isaiah Andrews, Nano Barahona, Matthew Gentzkow, Ashesh Rambachan and Jesse M. Shapiro
We study the causal interpretation of instrumental variables (IV) estimands of nonlinear, multivariate structural models with respect to rich forms of model misspecification. We focus on guaranteeing that the researcher's estimator is sharp zero consistent, meaning... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods
Andrews, Isaiah, Nano Barahona, Matthew Gentzkow, Ashesh Rambachan, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Causal Interpretation of Structural IV Estimands." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31799, October 2023.
- June 1987 (Revised August 1988)
- Case
American Bank
By: Robert S. Kaplan
American Bank is developing a new system to compute product costs. The deregulated, more competitive environment for commercial banks has created both problems and opportunities for banking operations. In order to price existing products and assess the desirability of... View Details
Keywords: System; Consolidation; Commercial Banking; SWOT Analysis; Fair Value Accounting; Cost Management; Price; Banking Industry; North and Central America; United States
Kaplan, Robert S. "American Bank." Harvard Business School Case 187-194, June 1987. (Revised August 1988.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Flow-Driven ESG Returns
I show that the recent returns to ESG investing are strongly driven by price impact
from flows towards ESG funds. Using data on institutional trades, I estimate the
market’s ability to accommodate the demand of ESG funds, which is given by the
elasticity of... View Details
Keywords: Investment Funds; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Markets; Investment Return
van der Beck, Philippe. "Flow-Driven ESG Returns." Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 21-71, November 2023.
- 25 Apr 2023
- Op-Ed
How SHEIN and Temu Conquered Fast Fashion—and Forged a New Business Model
information technology to directly match consumer demand to dispersed production by a collection of factories in China. This method of reaching customers should inspire any business that provides products or services that come from many... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom
By: Philippe van der Beck and Coralie Jaunin
This paper quantifies the impact of Robinhood traders on the US equity market. Within a structural model, we estimate retail and institutional demand curves and derive aggregate pricing implications via market clearing. The inelastic nature of institutional demand... View Details
van der Beck, Philippe, and Coralie Jaunin. "The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom." Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 21-12, November 2023.
- February 2018
- Article
Auctions versus Posted Prices in Online Markets
By: Liran Einav, Chiara Farronato, Jonathan Levin and Neel Sundaresan
Auctions were very popular in the early days of internet commerce, but today online sellers mostly use posted prices. We model the choice between auctions and posted prices as a trade-off between competitive price discovery and convenience. Evidence from eBay fits the... View Details
Einav, Liran, Chiara Farronato, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan. "Auctions versus Posted Prices in Online Markets." Journal of Political Economy 126, no. 1 (February 2018): 178–215.
- Article
Waves in Ship Prices and Investment
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, no. 1 (February 2015): 55–109.