Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(191)
- Faculty Publications (108)
- April 2015
- Teaching Note
International Macroeconomics — An Online Tutorial
By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the Teaching Note to accompany "International Macroeconomics", HBS Tutorial 715-702. View Details
- October 2014 (Revised February 2017)
- Case
A Currency We Can Call Our Own: Populism, Banking Crises, and Exchange Rate Crises in Argentina, 1946–2002
By: Rafael Di Tella
The case describes Argentina's struggle to establish a credible monetary system under populist pressures and the recurrent use of exchange rate stabilization plans. It focuses on two episodes where there was "too little money" in the economy: during the hyperinflation... View Details
- September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
- Case
The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity
By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White
After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details
Keywords: United Kingdom; Keynesian Multiplier; Inflation; Inflation Targeting; Government Spending; Government Intervention In The Markets; Monetary Policy; Financial Crisis Management; Austerity; Inequality; Public Finance; Government Finance; Macroeconomics; Economics; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Business Cycles; Welfare; United Kingdom
- December 2013 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015
By: Rafael Di Tella and Fernanda Miguel
In late October 2011, after losing 1 billion of dollar reserves in one month, the Argentine government began imposing a series of currency controls, limiting the ability to buy foreign currency. As of October 2011, Argentina's tax collection agency AFIP had been... View Details
- October 2013
- Case
Japan: Abe's Three Arrows?
After the Koizumi government ended in 2006, Japan continued to struggle with slow growth, deflation and, in 2011, a tsunami and nuclear disaster. Following a series of several more unsuccessful prime ministers, Shinzo Abe again became the prime minister in 2012 and... View Details
- June 2013 (Revised June 2013)
- Teaching Note
Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth & Currency Wars
By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,... View Details
Keywords: Exchange Rate; Inflation; Inflation Targeting; Industrialization; Infrastructure; Currency; Capital Controls; Stimulus; Commodity Prices; Manufacturing Costs; Globalization; Productivity Growth; Economics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Public Sector; Brazil; South America; Latin America
- May 2013
- Supplement
Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (C)
By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
Assuming office in December 2012, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was determined to revive Japan's stagnating economy through an ambitious plan known as 'Abenomics.' Under the guidance of the newly appointed governor of the central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank of Japan... View Details
- Article
Online and Official Price Indexes: Measuring Argentina's Inflation
By: Alberto Cavallo
Prices collected from online retailers can be used to construct daily price indexes that complement official statistics. This paper studies their ability to match official inflation estimates in five Latin American countries, with a focus on Argentina, where official... View Details
- 2013
- Working Paper
Internet Appendix for "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds"
By: Adi Sunderam, Luis M. Viceira and John Y. Campbell
- October 2012
- Case
Brazil 2003: Inflation Targeting and Debt Dynamics (Abridged)
By: Laura Alfaro and Rafael Di Tella
In October 2002, Brazilians elected a left-wing president, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, for the first time in that country's history. As markets faltered in response, Lula sought to reaffirm his commitment to fiscal discipline, a floating exchange rate, and inflation... View Details
- October 2012 (Revised April 2017)
- Case
Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth
By: Laura Alfaro, Hilary White and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,... View Details
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
- Article
Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details
- June 2011
- Teaching Note
The Suzlon Edge (TN)
Teaching Note for 708051. View Details
- June 2011
- Case
Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises
By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details
- April 2011 (Revised May 2013)
- Case
South Africa (A): Stuck in the Middle?
By: Richard H. K. Vietor and Diego Comin
Fifteen years after ending apartheid, formal unemployment in South Africa was still at 24%. While the country had grown at 4 to 5% annually during the 2000s, the financial crisis set it back by 1 million more unemployed. Moreover, it seemed as if the nation were stuck... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Policy; Employment; Wages; Competition; South Africa
- April 2011 (Revised December 2012)
- Supplement
South Africa (B): Getting Unstuck?
By: Richard H. K. Vietor and Diego Comin
15 years after ending apartheid, formal unemployment in South Africa was still at 24%. While the country had grown at 4 to 5% annually during the 2000s, the financial crisis set it back by 1 million more unemployed. Moreover, it seemed as if the nation were stuck... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Policy; Employment; Wages; Competition; South Africa
- March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
- Case
Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?
By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner
Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question? View Details
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Money; Asset Management; Investment; Price Bubble; Policy; Risk Management
- 2013
- Working Paper
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
- December 2010
- Article
Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details