Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2024
Working Paper

Migration, Climate Similarity, and the Consequences of Climate Mismatch

By: Marguerite Obolensky, Marco Tabellini and Charles Taylor

This paper examines the concept of “climate matching” in migration—the idea that migrants seek out destinations with familiar climates. Focusing on the US, we document that temperature distance between origin and destination predicts the distribution of migrants across... View Details

Keywords: Migration; Climate; Immigration; Residency; Weather; Ethnicity; Climate Change; Geographic Location; Policy; United States

Research Summary

Institutions and Corporate Lobbying

“Institutions and Make-or-Buy Decision of Lobbying: The Role of Sociopolitical Legitimacy on Foreign MNEs’ Lobbying Internalization”

In this study, I examine how legitimacy comes into play in foreign MNEs’ make-or-buy decisions... View Details

Keywords: Institutions; Make V. Buy; Lobbying; Legitimacy; Corruption; Culture; Multinational Enterprise; United States

Article

Agency Costs, Mispricing, and Ownership Structure

By: Sergey Chernenko, C. Fritz Foley and Robin Greenwood

Standard theories of corporate ownership assume that because markets are efficient, insiders ultimately bear all agency costs that they create and therefore have a strong incentive to minimize conflicts of interest with outside investors. We argue that if equity is... View Details

Keywords: Business and Shareholder Relations; Ownership; Conflict of Interests; Investment; Valuation

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2017
Working Paper

Investment Timing with Costly Search for Financing

By: Samuel Antill

I develop a dynamic model of investment timing in which firms must first choose when to search for external financing. Search is costly and the arrival of investors is uncertain, leading to delay in financing and investment. Depending on parameters, my model can... View Details

Keywords: Real Options; Search And Bargaining; Time-varying Financial Conditions; Investment; Venture Capital; Mathematical Methods

2025
Working Paper

Blockchain Adoption and Audit Quality

By: Mei Luo, Daniel Rabetti and Shuangchen Yu

This study examines the impact of blockchain adoption in the corporate setting. Specifically, we provide comprehensive empirical support to recent theory (Cao, Cong, and Young, 2024) proposing that blockchain adoption positively affects endogenous audit quality and... View Details

Keywords: Blockchain; Accounting Audits; Technology Adoption; Financial Reporting; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; China

Article

Valuation Waves and Merger Activity: The Empirical Evidence

By: Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, David Robinson and S. Viswanathan

To test recent theories suggesting that valuation errors affect merger activity, we develop a decomposition that breaks the market-to-book ratio (M/B) into three components: the firm-specific pricing deviation from short-run industry pricing; sector-wide, short-run... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Theory; Behavior

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November 2016 (Revised April 2018)
Case

reMarkable: e-Writing the Future

By: Elie Ofek and Curtis Hsu

Magnus Wanberg is the creator of reMarkable, a breakthrough e-writer device set apart from similar products on the market by having solved the frustrating “slow ink” problem typically experienced on pen-based electronic devices, thus providing a “pen and paper” like... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Marketing; Innovation Management; Go To Market Strategy; Marketing Plan; Target Market; Digital Devices; Consumer Electronics; Forecasting; Information Technology; Marketing Strategy; Innovation and Management; Marketing Channels; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Marketing; Product Development; Electronics Industry

April 1997
Case

Private Management and Public Schools (B)

Examines the prospects for private management in U.S. public schools. Focuses on the education and business strategies of firms seeking to expand as a result of charter school legislation that allowed for-profit entities to enter and compete for students with access to... View Details

Keywords: For-Profit Firms; Public Sector; Value; Education; Business Strategy; Government and Politics; Education Industry; United States

Fall 2012
Article

Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence

By: Ozge Turut and Elie Ofek

We model an incumbent's decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market-related uncertainties. It is also particularly... View Details

Keywords: Competition; Innovation Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Mathematical Methods

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2025
Working Paper

Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration in the Presence of Outliers

By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Kris Ferreira, Maya Balakrishnan and Jordan Tong

Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). How can humans and algorithms work together to make... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions

October 2011 (Revised March 2012)
Supplement

Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Alisa Zalosh

Keywords: Forecasting; Budgeting; International Marketing; Product Planning ＆ Policy; Sales Promotions; Marketing Plans; Products; Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Product Design; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Budgets and Budgeting

November 2009
Journal Article

A Theory of Growth and Volatility at the Aggregate and Firm Level

By: Diego A. Comin and Sunil Mulani

This paper presents an endogenous growth model that explains the evolution of the first and second moments of productivity growth at the aggregate and firm level during the post-war period. Growth is driven by the development of both (i) idiosyncratic R&D innovations... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Microeconomics; Innovation and Invention; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods; Research and Development

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December 2021
Article

Left- and Right-Leaning News Organizations Use Negative Emotional Content and Elicit User Engagement Similarly

By: Andrea Bellovary, Nathaniel Young and Amit Goldenberg

Negativity has historically dominated news content; however, little research has examined how news organizations use affect on social media, where content is generally positive. In the current project we ask a few questions: Do news organizations on Twitter use... View Details

Keywords: Negative Press; Twitter; Political Affiliation; Affect; News; Media; Internet and the Web; Emotions; Perspective; Social Media

2024
Working Paper

LASH Risk and Interest Rates

By: Laura Alfaro, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell and Ioana Neamtu

We introduce a framework to understand and quantify a form of liquidity risk that we dub Liquidity After Solvency Hedging or “LASH” risk. Financial institutions take LASH risk when they hedge against losses, using strategies that lead to liquidity needs when the value... View Details

Keywords: Liquidity; Monetary Policy; Non-bank Intermediaries; Hedging; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Funds; Financial Condition; Interest Rates

Article

On Derivatives Markets and Social Welfare: A Theory of Empty Voting and Hidden Ownership

By: Jordan M. Barry, John William Hatfield and Scott Duke Kominers

In the past twenty-five years, derivatives markets have grown exponentially. Large, modern derivatives markets increasingly enable investors to hold economic interests in corporations without owning voting rights, and vice versa. This leads to both empty... View Details

Keywords: Voting; Corporate Disclosure; Financial Markets; Ownership

August 2011
Article

The Jekyll and Hyde of Emotional Intelligence: Emotion-Regulation Knowledge Facilitates Prosocial and Interpersonally Deviant Behavior

By: Stéphane Côté, K. A. DeCelles, Julie M. McCarthy, Gerben A. Van Kleef and Ivona Hideg

Does emotional intelligence promote behavior that strictly benefits the greater good, or can it also advance interpersonal deviance? In the investigation reported here, we tested the possibility that a core facet of emotional intelligence—emotion-regulation... View Details

Keywords: Behavior; Emotions

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2017
Article

A Brief Money Management Scale and Its Associations with Personality, Financial Health, and Hypothetical Debt Repayment

By: Masha Ksendzova, Grant Edward Donnelly and Ryan Howell

Money management is essential for financial health, and more research is needed to better assess people’s money management practices. Therefore, we factor-analyzed 205 scaled questions from previous money management measures to select the best items and examined their... View Details

Keywords: Budgeting; Debt; Money Management; Financial Health; Scale Development; Budgets and Budgeting; Personal Finance; Behavior; Decision Making

2003
Chapter

Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation

By: Josh Lerner and Paul A. Gompers

This chapter seeks to understand the implications of the recent decline in venture activity for innovation. It argues that the situation may not be as grim as it initially appears. While there are many reasons for believing that on average venture capital has a... View Details

Keywords: Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Business Cycles; Financial Services Industry; United States

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2011
Chapter

Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley

This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States

Bank Capital and the Low Risk Anomaly

Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient... View Details

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