Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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February 2024
Article

Conveying and Detecting Listening in Live Conversation

By: Hanne Collins, Julia A. Minson, Ariella S. Kristal and Alison Wood Brooks

Across all domains of human social life, positive perceptions of conversational listening (i.e., feeling heard) predict well-being, professional success, and interpersonal flourishing. But a fundamental question remains: Are perceptions of listening accurate? Prior... View Details

Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Behavior; Perception

Research Summary

Social Networks and Unraveling in Labor Markets

This paper develops a model of local unraveling (or early hiring) in entry-level labor markets. Information about workers' productivity is revealed over time and transmitted credibly via a two-sided network connecting firms and workers. While employment starts only... View Details

2017
Article

A Brief Money Management Scale and Its Associations with Personality, Financial Health, and Hypothetical Debt Repayment

By: Masha Ksendzova, Grant Edward Donnelly and Ryan Howell

Money management is essential for financial health, and more research is needed to better assess people’s money management practices. Therefore, we factor-analyzed 205 scaled questions from previous money management measures to select the best items and examined their... View Details

Keywords: Budgeting; Debt; Money Management; Financial Health; Scale Development; Budgets and Budgeting; Personal Finance; Behavior; Decision Making

Article

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business

By: Frank V. Cespedes

The first task of crisis management is a reasonably accurate view of the current situation and how it might evolve. There are many predictions about so-called “new normal” as a result of the semi-enforced social distancing necessitated by the coronavirus. But most are... View Details

Keywords: Health Pandemics; Crisis Management; Strategic Planning

March–April 2013
Article

Vaporware, Suddenware and Trueware: New Product Preannouncements under Market Uncertainty

By: Elie Ofek and Ozge Turut

A firm may want to preannounce its plans to develop a new product in order to stimulate future demand. But given that such communications can affect rivals' incentives to develop the same new product, a firm may decide to preannounce untruthfully in order to deter... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Announcements; Competition; Product Launch; Product Development

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2010
Working Paper

Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries

By: Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger and Andrew F. Newman

We study how trade policy affects firms' ownership structures. We embed an incomplete contracts model of vertical integration choices into a standard perfectly-competitive international trade framework. Integration decisions are driven by a trade-off between the... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Policy; Vertical Integration; Business and Government Relations; Boundaries; Ownership; Mathematical Methods

Article

Valuation Waves and Merger Activity: The Empirical Evidence

By: Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, David Robinson and S. Viswanathan

To test recent theories suggesting that valuation errors affect merger activity, we develop a decomposition that breaks the market-to-book ratio (M/B) into three components: the firm-specific pricing deviation from short-run industry pricing; sector-wide, short-run... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Theory; Behavior

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Research Summary

Institutions and Corporate Lobbying

“Institutions and Make-or-Buy Decision of Lobbying: The Role of Sociopolitical Legitimacy on Foreign MNEs’ Lobbying Internalization”

In this study, I examine how legitimacy comes into play in foreign MNEs’ make-or-buy decisions... View Details

Keywords: Institutions; Make V. Buy; Lobbying; Legitimacy; Corruption; Culture; Multinational Enterprise; United States

Article

Agency Costs, Mispricing, and Ownership Structure

By: Sergey Chernenko, C. Fritz Foley and Robin Greenwood

Standard theories of corporate ownership assume that because markets are efficient, insiders ultimately bear all agency costs that they create and therefore have a strong incentive to minimize conflicts of interest with outside investors. We argue that if equity is... View Details

Keywords: Business and Shareholder Relations; Ownership; Conflict of Interests; Investment; Valuation

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Fall 2012
Article

Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence

By: Ozge Turut and Elie Ofek

We model an incumbent's decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market-related uncertainties. It is also particularly... View Details

Keywords: Competition; Innovation Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Mathematical Methods

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2025
Working Paper

Blockchain Adoption and Audit Quality

By: Mei Luo, Daniel Rabetti and Shuangchen Yu

This study examines the impact of blockchain adoption in the corporate setting. Specifically, we provide comprehensive empirical support to recent theory (Cao, Cong, and Young, 2024) proposing that blockchain adoption positively affects endogenous audit quality and... View Details

Keywords: Blockchain; Accounting Audits; Technology Adoption; Financial Reporting; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; China

2025
Working Paper

Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration in the Presence of Outliers

By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Kris Ferreira, Maya Balakrishnan and Jordan Tong

Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). How can humans and algorithms work together to make... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions

Forthcoming
Article

The Rise of Remote Work: Evidence on Productivity and Preferences from Firm and Worker Surveys

By: Alexander Bartik, Zoë Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton

Drawing on surveys of small business owners and employees, we present three main findings about the evolution of remote work after the onset of COVID-19. First, uptake of remote work was abrupt and widespread in jobs suitable for telework according to the task-based... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Remote Work; Health Pandemics; Jobs and Positions; Demographics; Surveys

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December 2021
Article

Left- and Right-Leaning News Organizations Use Negative Emotional Content and Elicit User Engagement Similarly

By: Andrea Bellovary, Nathaniel Young and Amit Goldenberg

Negativity has historically dominated news content; however, little research has examined how news organizations use affect on social media, where content is generally positive. In the current project we ask a few questions: Do news organizations on Twitter use... View Details

Keywords: Negative Press; Twitter; Political Affiliation; Affect; News; Media; Internet and the Web; Emotions; Perspective; Social Media

2011
Article

Incentive Compensation and the Likelihood of Termination: Theory and Evidence from Real Estate Organizations

By: Christopher Parsons, G. Hallman and J. Hartzell

We analyze two managerial compensation incentive devices: the threat of termination and pay for performance. We first develop a simple model predicting that these devices are substitutes: when termination incentives are low, optimal contracts provide stronger... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Resignation and Termination; Compensation and Benefits; Real Estate Industry

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2017
Working Paper

Investment Timing with Costly Search for Financing

By: Samuel Antill

I develop a dynamic model of investment timing in which firms must first choose when to search for external financing. Search is costly and the arrival of investors is uncertain, leading to delay in financing and investment. Depending on parameters, my model can... View Details

Keywords: Real Options; Search And Bargaining; Time-varying Financial Conditions; Investment; Venture Capital; Mathematical Methods

2011
Chapter

Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley

This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States

October 2011 (Revised March 2012)
Supplement

Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Alisa Zalosh

Keywords: Forecasting; Budgeting; International Marketing; Product Planning ＆ Policy; Sales Promotions; Marketing Plans; Products; Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Product Design; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Budgets and Budgeting

Bank Capital and the Low Risk Anomaly

Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient... View Details

2003
Chapter

Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation

By: Josh Lerner and Paul A. Gompers

This chapter seeks to understand the implications of the recent decline in venture activity for innovation. It argues that the situation may not be as grim as it initially appears. While there are many reasons for believing that on average venture capital has a... View Details

Keywords: Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Business Cycles; Financial Services Industry; United States

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