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      • Faculty Publications  (1,059)

      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • 2014
      • Working Paper

      Bio-Piracy or Prospering Together? Fuzzy Set and Qualitative Analysis of Herbal Patenting by Firms

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury and Tarun Khanna
      Since the 1990s, several Western firms have filed patents based on medicinal herbs from emerging markets, evoking protests from local stakeholders against 'bio-piracy'. We explore conditions under which firms and local stakeholders share rents from such patents. Our... View Details
      Keywords: Rents From New Technology; Local Stakeholders; Herbal Patents; QCA; Fuzzy Set Analysis; Qualitative Case Studies; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Patents; Emerging Markets; Health Care and Treatment; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, and Tarun Khanna. "Bio-Piracy or Prospering Together? Fuzzy Set and Qualitative Analysis of Herbal Patenting by Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-081, February 2014.
      • February 2014 (Revised August 2016)
      • Case

      Strava

      By: Joseph B. Lassiter III, William A. Sahlman and Sid Misra
      Strava is a new fast-growing social network for the avid cyclist and runner. The Strava case traces the entrepreneurial journey of two serial entrepreneurs who have been co-founders in a prior venture, and who have co-founded Strava 3 years ago. The protagonists must... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Cycling; Biking; Running; Sports; Technology; Mobile App; Mobile; GPS; Motivation; Behavioral Science; Founders; Term Sheet; Investment; Terms; Silicon Valley; Lifestyle; Strava; Financing; Fundraising; Angel; Valuation; Growth; Forecast; Business Startups; Business Plan; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Institutional Investing; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Innovation Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Innovation and Management; Technological Innovation; Management Succession; Growth Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Market Timing; Bicycle Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Technology Industry; Sports Industry; Web Services Industry; California; New England
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      Lassiter, Joseph B., III, William A. Sahlman, and Sid Misra. "Strava." Harvard Business School Case 814-055, February 2014. (Revised August 2016.)
      • 2013
      • Book

      Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters

      By: Walter A. Friedman
      The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting And Prediction; Economic History; Economics; History; Risk and Uncertainty; United States
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      Friedman, Walter A. Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters. Princeton University Press, 2013.
      • December 2013
      • Article

      Legislating Stock Prices

      By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
      We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important... View Details
      Keywords: Legislator Incentives; Voting; Return Predictability; Lobbying; Motivation and Incentives; Government Legislation; Stocks
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      Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Legislating Stock Prices." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 3 (December 2013): 574–595. (Winner of Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2013.)
      • 2013
      • Other Teaching and Training Material

      Operations Management Reading: Forecasting

      By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow
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      Wheelwright, Steven C., and Ann B. Winslow. "Operations Management Reading: Forecasting." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Harvard Business Publishing 8042HBH, 2013.
      • 2013
      • Other Teaching and Training Material

      Operations Management Reading: Forecasting

      By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow
      This reading provides an introduction to forecasting methods. It includes a brief summary of methods based on judgment and a longer section on quantitative analysis. It also provides sample data so students can develop an understanding of concepts such as correlation,... View Details
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      Wheelwright, Steven C., and Ann B. Winslow. "Operations Management Reading: Forecasting." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston: Harvard Business Publishing 8042, 2013.
      • November 2013
      • Article

      Adding Bricks to Clicks: On the Role of Physical Stores in a World of Online Shopping

      By: Jill Avery, Thomas Steenburgh, John A. Deighton and Mary Caravella
      Buying a product has never been easier. Consumers can shop online, over the phone or via mail order, from home or on the go, and if they want to experience touch and feel, they can also visit a "real" store. Often, one and the same retailer offers several of these... View Details
      Keywords: Channel Management; Retailing; Marketing; Marketing Channels; Marketing Strategy; E-commerce; Retail Industry; United States
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      Avery, Jill, Thomas Steenburgh, John A. Deighton, and Mary Caravella. "Adding Bricks to Clicks: On the Role of Physical Stores in a World of Online Shopping." GfK Marketing Intelligence Review 5, no. 2 (November 2013).
      • October 2013 (Revised November 2016)
      • Case

      Carbon Engineering

      By: Joseph B. Lassiter III and Sid Misra
      Dr. David Keith, President of Carbon Engineering, a company based in Calgary, Alberta, is commercializing a technology to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. The company plans to market the captured CO2 to produce low carbon transportation fuels in... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Government Legislation; Technological Innovation; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Risk and Uncertainty; Research and Development; Transportation; Information Infrastructure; Energy; Forecasting and Prediction; Energy Industry; Green Technology Industry; Industrial Products Industry; Transportation Industry; Utilities Industry; Technology Industry; Canada; United States; China; India
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      Lassiter, Joseph B., III, and Sid Misra. "Carbon Engineering." Harvard Business School Case 814-040, October 2013. (Revised November 2016.)
      • October 2013
      • Article

      Ad Revenue and Content Commercialization: Evidence from Blogs

      By: Monic Sun and Feng Zhu
      Many scholars argue that when incentivized by ad revenue, content providers are more likely to tailor their content to attract "eyeballs," and as a result, popular content may be excessively supplied. We empirically test this prediction by taking advantage of the... View Details
      Keywords: Ad-sponsored Business Models; Media Content; Blog; Revenue Sharing; User-generated Content; Platform-based Markets; Blogs; Business Model; Digital Platforms; Commercialization; Digital Marketing
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      Sun, Monic, and Feng Zhu. "Ad Revenue and Content Commercialization: Evidence from Blogs." Management Science 59, no. 10 (October 2013): 2314–2331.
      • October 2013
      • Article

      How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies

      By: Phanish Puranam, Ranjay Gulati and Sourav Bhattacharya
      While many theories of the firm seek to explain when firms make rather than buy, in practice, firms often make and buy the same input—they engage in plural sourcing. We argue that explaining the mix of external procurement and internal sourcing for the same input... View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Prejudice and Bias; Mathematical Methods
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      Puranam, Phanish, Ranjay Gulati, and Sourav Bhattacharya. "How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies." Strategic Management Journal 34, no. 10 (October 2013): 1145–1161.
      • 2013
      • Article

      Local Industrial Structures and Female Entrepreneurship in India

      By: Ejaz Ghani, William R. Kerr and Stephen O'Connell
      We analyze the spatial determinants of female entrepreneurship in India in the manufacturing and services sectors. We focus on the presence of incumbent female-owned businesses and their role in promoting higher subsequent female entrepreneurship relative to male... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Gender; Manufacturing Industry; Service Industry; India
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      Ghani, Ejaz, William R. Kerr, and Stephen O'Connell. "Local Industrial Structures and Female Entrepreneurship in India." Journal of Economic Geography 13, no. 6 (November 2013): 929–964. (Winner of the FPD Academy Award for Best World Bank Research in Finance and Private Sector Development.)
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      NBC and the 2012 London Olympics: Unexpected Success

      By: Stephen A. Greyser and Vadim Kogan
      "The 2010 Vancouver Winter Games lost $223 million, astonishing for a 17-day event. Next year's London Summer Games, which cost a record Olympic rights fee of $1.18 billion, are expected to lose at least as much..." wrote Richard Sandomir in The New York Times. "NBC... View Details
      Keywords: Success; Profit; Sports; Failure; Television Entertainment; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Vancouver; Beijing; London; Brazil; Russia
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      Greyser, Stephen A., and Vadim Kogan. "NBC and the 2012 London Olympics: Unexpected Success." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-028, September 2013.
      • 2014
      • Working Paper

      Sharing Design Rights: A Commons Approach for Developing Infrastructure

      By: Nuno Gil and Carliss Y. Baldwin
      This study empirically investigates the relationship between design structure and organization structure in the context of new infrastructure development projects. Our research setting is a capital program to develop new school buildings in the city of Manchester, UK.... View Details
      Keywords: Design; Buildings and Facilities; Education
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      Gil, Nuno, and Carliss Y. Baldwin. "Sharing Design Rights: A Commons Approach for Developing Infrastructure." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-025, September 2013. (Revised January 2014.)
      • Article

      Unexpected Benefits of Deciding by Mind Wandering

      By: Colleen Giblin, Carey K. Morewedge and Michael I. Norton
      The mind wanders, even when people are attempting to make complex decisions. We suggest that such mind wandering—allowing one's thoughts to wander until the "correct" choice comes to mind—can positively impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Satisfaction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cognition and Thinking
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      Giblin, Colleen, Carey K. Morewedge, and Michael I. Norton. "Unexpected Benefits of Deciding by Mind Wandering." Art. 598. Frontiers in Psychology 4 (September 6, 2013).
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Testing for Firm Heterogeneity, Predicting Firm-Specific Coefficients, and Estimating Strategy Trade-Offs

      By: Juan Alcacer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Goncalo Pacheco-de-Almeida
      Although Strategy research aims to understand how firm actions have differential effects on performance, most empirical research estimates the average effects of these actions across firms. This paper promotes Random Coefficients Models (RCMs) as an ideal empirical... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Mathematical Methods
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      Alcacer, Juan, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk, and Goncalo Pacheco-de-Almeida. "Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Testing for Firm Heterogeneity, Predicting Firm-Specific Coefficients, and Estimating Strategy Trade-Offs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-022, September 2013.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

      By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
      Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability, or their responsiveness to a... View Details
      Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
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      Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-020, September 2013. (Revised December 2019. Forthcoming at Marketing Science.)
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Appendix to 'Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity'

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Appendix to 'Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity'." Working Paper, September 2013.
      • October 2013
      • Article

      With a Little Help from My (Random) Friends: Success and Failure in Post-Business School Entrepreneurship

      By: Josh Lerner and Ulrike Malmendier
      To what extent do peers affect our occupational choices? This question has been of particular interest in the context of entrepreneurship and policies to create a favorable environment for entry. Such influences, however, are hard to identify empirically. We exploit... View Details
      Keywords: Behavior; Entrepreneurship; Attitudes; Relationships; Cognition and Thinking
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      Lerner, Josh, and Ulrike Malmendier. "With a Little Help from My (Random) Friends: Success and Failure in Post-Business School Entrepreneurship." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 10 (October 2013): 2411–2452. (Earlier versions distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 16918 and Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 11-108.)
      • July–August 2013
      • Article

      A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings

      By: Eva Ascarza and Bruce G.S. Hardie
      As firms become more customer-centric, concepts such as customer equity come to the fore. Any serious attempt to quantify customer equity requires modeling techniques that can provide accurate multiperiod forecasts of customer behavior. Although a number of researchers... View Details
      Keywords: Churn; Retention; Contractual Settings; Access Services; Hidden Markov Models; RFM; Latent Variable Models; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Bruce G.S. Hardie. "A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings." Marketing Science 32, no. 4 (July–August 2013): 570–590.
      • June 2013 (Revised September 2015)
      • Case

      Procter & Gamble

      By: Jay W. Lorsch and Kathleen Durante

      On July 12, 2012, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management announced publicly that it had purchased about $2 billion of Procter and Gamble (P&G) stock. Shares in the company closed up 3.75% the day the disclosure was made public. Ackman told the New York... View Details

      Keywords: Ackman; P&G; Pershing Square Capital Managment; Disruption; Management Succession; Crisis Management; Acquisition; Consumer Products Industry; Financial Services Industry
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      Lorsch, Jay W., and Kathleen Durante. "Procter & Gamble." Harvard Business School Case 413-127, June 2013. (Revised September 2015.)
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