Sequential Decision Making - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2022
Working Paper

Values as Luxury Goods and Political Polarization

By: Benjamin Enke, Mattias Polborn and Alex A Wu

Motivated by novel survey evidence, this paper develops a theory of political behavior in which values are a luxury good: the relative weight voters place on values rather than material considerations increases in income. The model predicts (i) voters who are... View Details

Keywords: Political Polarization; Government and Politics; Moral Sensibility; Luxury; Values and Beliefs; Voting

2025
Working Paper

Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China

By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin

We show analysts at government-controlled brokerage firms serve as a market stabilization tool in China. Using earnings forecasts from 2005–2019, we find government-brokerage analysts issue relatively more optimistic—yet less accurate and timely—forecasts during... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Market Stabilization; Government Ownership; Coordinated Economies; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets

2016
Chapter

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Keywords: Investment Return; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation

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September 2012
Case

BASIX (Abridged)

By: Shawn Cole and Peter Tufano

BASIX, an Indian microfinance corporation, must decide whether to continue to sell weather insurance to its clients. A brand-new financial product, weather insurance pays if measured rainfall during the growing season falls below a pre-specified limit. Mr. Sattaiah,... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Microfinance; Household; Risk Management; Insurance; Banking Industry; India

March 2010
Article

Extreme Governance: An Analysis of Dual-Class Firms in the United States

By: Paul A. Gompers, Joy Ishii and Andrew Metrick

We construct a comprehensive list of dual-class firms in the United States and use this list to analyze the relationship between insider ownership and firm value. Our data have two useful features. First, since dual-class stock separates cash-flow rights from voting... View Details

Keywords: Voting; Cash Flow; Stocks; Rights; Ownership Stake; Value; United States

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February 2006 (Revised August 2006)
Case

Kevin McCarthy and Westlake Chemical Corporation (A)

Examines forecasting earnings/performance for a commodity chemical firm during a period of high uncertainty, highlighting the combined effects of input process (natural gas), industry capacity/utilization, and cyclicality. Assuming the role of Kevin McCarthy (the top... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Futures and Commodity Futures; Forecasting and Prediction; Chemicals; Chemical Industry

2005
Working Paper

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

07 Oct 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Specific Knowledge and Divisional Performance Measurement

Keywords: by Michael C. Jensen & William H. Meckling

October 1994
Article

When Worlds Collide: The Implications of Panel Data-Based Choice Models for Consumer Behavior

By: R. S. Winer, R.E. Bucklin, J. A. Deighton, J. Erdem, P.S. Fader, J.J. Inman, H. Katahira, Katherine N. Lemon and A. Mitchell

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions

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February 2020 (Revised August 2022)
Case

Anomalie

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport and Thomas O. Jones

In early 2019, the founders of Anomalie, an online direct-to-consumer provider of bridal gowns, have just agreed to a $13.6 million Series A investment from a Silicon Valley VC. They are considering three major initiatives as they move forward. (1) To scale their very... View Details

Keywords: Direct-to-consumer; Entrepreneurship; Internet and the Web; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Technology Industry

May 2007 (Revised July 2007)
Case

JetBlue: Prepare for Financing

The CFO of JetBlue is trying to decide which of two financing proposals to pursue. A straight equity issue will dilute his principal shareholders' ownership, but seems like the safer alternative in an industry that is notorious for its high failure rate. On the other... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Private Equity; Public Equity; Financing and Loans; Air Transportation Industry; United States

May 2008
Journal Article

Future Lock-in: Future Implementation Increases Selection of 'Should' Choices

By: Todd Rogers and Max Bazerman

People often experience tension over certain choices (e.g., they should reduce their gas consumption or increase their savings, but they do not want to). Some posit that this tension arises from the competing interests of a deliberative “should” self and an affective... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Research; Behavior; Conflict of Interests

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October 1984
Teaching Note

NIKE (D): Leisure Shoes, Teaching Note

Teaching Note for (9-385-031). View Details

Keywords: Luxury; Decisions; Performance Effectiveness; Management Practices and Processes; Management Teams; Apparel and Accessories Industry

17 Nov 2009
First Look

First Look: Nov. 17

distinction is possible because strategy and business model are different constructs. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-036.pdf The Devil Wears Prada? Effects of Exposure to Luxury Goods on Cognition and Decision... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

October 2021
Article

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen

We study a novel, low-cost approach to aggregating judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and investment costs... View Details

Keywords: Judgment Aggregation; Quality Uncertainty; Creative Industry; Project Evaluation And Selection; Creativity; Film Entertainment; Judgments; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

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1990
Article

The Institutionalization of Wealth: Changing Patterns of Investment Decision-Making

By: André Perold and Jay O. Light

Keywords: Wealth; Investment; Decision Making

November 2006
Article

The Costs and Benefits of Undoing Egocentric Responsibility Assessments in Groups

By: E. Caruso, N. Epley and M. H. Bazerman

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Groups and Teams

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July 1997
Teaching Note

First Year Marketing Module Summary: Evolution of Marketing TN

By: John A. Deighton

Describes the organization of a four- or five-case module that concludes the Marketing Management course in the First Year curriculum at Harvard Business School and offers a look to the future. Covers introductory remarks to students at the start of the module, some... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Information; Marketing

May 1981 (Revised June 1994)
Case

Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Apparel and Accessories Industry

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19 Sep 2019
News

Tackling Climate Change in the MBA Classroom

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