Publications

March 27, 2020
Other Article

Lessons from Italy's Response to Coronavirus

By: Gary P. Pisano, Raffaella Sadun and Michele Zanini

Policymakers in many parts of Europe and the United States are struggling to bring the rapidly spreading Covid-19 pandemic under control. In doing so, they are repeating many of the mistakes made in Italy, where the pandemic turned into a disaster. A major contributing... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Crisis Management; Government and Politics; Decision Making; Italy

Article

Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data

By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend

This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction

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Article

Raiffa Transformed the Field of Negotiation—and Me

By: Max Bazerman

Howard Raiffa was a role model, friend, and inspiration. He transformed the field of negotiation, and he transformed my career. This brief article provides a recollection of how Howard revolutionized the field of negotiation and how those insights are now affecting... View Details

Keywords: Negotiation; Decision Making; Analysis; Game Theory; Personal Development and Career

Article

Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment

By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane

We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States

June 2018
Article

Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France

By: Vincent Pons

This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in François Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized... View Details

Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; Interpersonal Communication; France

Article

On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson

Keywords: Investment; Performance; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

January 1997
Article

The Effect of Multiple Anchors on Anchoring Individual and Group Judgment

By: James K. Sebenius and Glen Whyte

Keywords: Groups and Teams; Judgments; Agreements and Arrangements

August 1983 (Revised May 1985)
Case

Jamestown Co.

By: Benson P. Shapiro and Edward J. Hoff

In May 1983 Ms. Katherine O'Brien, vice president of marketing, was deciding whether Jamestown should discontinue the use of independent representatives in favor of a direct company salesforce. Jamestown sold informal stoneware dinnerware through department and gift... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Leadership Style; Marketing Channels; Salesforce Management

05 Feb 2020
News

January at HBS: SIPs Year Three

17 Jun 2014
News

Amazon Is Not Invincible

Keywords: Amazon; negotiation; Publishing Industries (except Internet); Information

14 Oct 2013
News

Time for Government to Reopen for Business

November 2020
Teaching Note

Valuing Celgene's CVR

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 221-031. When Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) acquired Celgene Corporation in November 2019, Celgene shareholders received cash, BMS stock, and a contingent value right (CVRs) that would pay $9 if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Valuation; Value; Judgments; Decision Making; Cash Flow; Financial Instruments; Cognition and Thinking; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry; United States

February 1991
Background Note

Note on Sealed Bid Auctions

By: David E. Bell

Describes a simple approach to determining an appropriate bid for a sealed bid auction. View Details

Keywords: History; Management Style; Financial Management; Consumer Behavior; Accounting; Bids and Bidding; Decisions; Market Transactions; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competitive Strategy; Negotiation Style; Auctions

2003
Article

The Influence of Culture and Corporate Governance on the Characteristics that Distinguish Superior Analysts

By: Michael B. Clement, Lynn Rees and Edward Swanson

We identify characteristics of financial analysts that have been shown to be associated with relative forecast accuracy in the United States and examine these characteristics within 10 countries. We find that relative forecast accuracy is influenced by years of... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

2021
Working Paper

Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?

By: Benjamin Enke, Uri Gneezy, Brian Hall, David Martin, Vadim Nelidov, Theo Offerman and Jeroen van de Ven

Despite decades of research on heuristics and biases, empirical evidence on the effect of large incentives—as present in relevant economic decisions—on cognitive biases is scant. This paper tests the effect of incentives on four widely documented biases: base rate... View Details

Keywords: Cognitive Biases; Incentives; Motivation and Incentives; Decision Making; Performance

February 2021
Case

Board Director Dilemmas—New Year, New Timing

By: Suraj Srinivasan, David G. Fubini and Amram Migdal

This case focuses on a junior partner at a private equity (PE) firm who sits on the board of one of the firm’s portfolio companies. In the case, the board member asks the CEO to accelerate a cost-cutting initiative and looks to a seasoned industry veteran who is also a... View Details

Keywords: Board Directors; Governing and Advisory Boards; Strategy; Decision Making

Article

Comment mobiliser les exclus du jeu politique?

By: Vincent Pons

Keywords: Elections; Voter Mobilization; France; Voting; Political Elections; France

October 2015
Case

Transpower New Zealand: Evaluating Board Performance

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Sarah L. Abbott

Mark Verbiest, Chairman of Transpower New Zealand, initiated a performance review of Transpower's board of directors. The review, which took four months to complete, provided board members with individualized feedback on their performance, as well as information on how... View Details

Keywords: Board Of Directors; Performance Evaluation; Governance; Leadership; Performance; Organizations; Human Resources; Decision Making; New Zealand

August 2011 (Revised November 2017)
Case

Adaptive Engineering, LLC

By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff

The owner and CEO of Adaptive Engineering was facing an important decision: should he focus on rebuilding its core professional services business which had generated significant revenue and cash flow over the past several years, or should he focus on developing and... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Making; Service Industry; Technology Industry