Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(2,918)
- Faculty Publications (967)
- 2019
- Working Paper
The Wisdom of Crowds in Operations: Forecasting Using Prediction Markets
By: Achal Bassamboo, Ruomeng Cui and Antonio Moreno
Prediction is an important activity in various business processes, but it becomes difficult when historical information is not available, such as forecasting demand of a new product. One approach that can be applied in such situations is to crowdsource opinions from... View Details
- August 2015 (Revised January 2017)
- Technical Note
From Correlation to Causation
By: Feng Zhu and Karim R. Lakhani
To make sound business decisions, managers must be comfortable with the concepts of correlation and causation. This background note provides an overview of correlation and causation using examples and explains why the former does not imply the latter. It also describes... View Details
- 2016
- Working Paper
Through the Grapevine: Network Effects on the Design of Executive Compensation Contracts
By: Susanna Gallani
Effective design of executive compensation contracts involves choosing and weighting performance measures, as well as defining the mix between fixed and incentive-based pay components, with a view to fostering talent retention and goal congruence. The variability in... View Details
- 2015
- Working Paper
Blinded by Experience: Prior Experience, Negative News and Belief Updating
By: Bradley R. Staats, Diwas S. KC and Francesca Gino
Traditional models of operations management involve dynamic decision-making assuming optimal (Bayesian) updating. However, behavioral theory suggests that individuals exhibit bias in their beliefs and decisions. We conduct both a field study and two laboratory studies... View Details
- July 2015
- Article
Executives' 'Off-the-Job' Behaviors and Financial Reporting Risk
By: Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey and Abbie Smith
We examine how executives' behavior outside the workplace, as measured by their ownership of luxury goods (low “frugality”) and prior legal infractions, is related to financial reporting risk. We predict and find that chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial... View Details
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
- May 2015
- Case
Pricing in a Digital World (2015)
By: John Gourville
Dynamic pricing, especially as practiced by Uber and Lift, seems to be all the rage. In this case, we look at five interesting applications of dynamic price and price customization, each made possible by advances in digital technology. These range from the online... View Details
- Article
Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure and the Low Risk Anomaly
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Traditional capital structure theory predicts that reducing banks' leverage reduces the risk and cost of equity but does not change the weighted average cost of capital, and thus the rates for borrowers. We confirm that the equity of better-capitalized banks has lower... View Details
- April 2015
- Case
Carolinas HealthCare System: Consumer Analytics
By: John A. Quelch and Margaret L. Rodriguez
In 2014, Dr. Michael Dulin, chief clinical officer for analytics and outcomes research and head of the Dickson Advanced Analytics (DA2) group at Carolinas HealthCare System (CHS), successfully unified all analytics talent and resources into one group over a three year... View Details
- Article
Big Other: Surveillance Capitalism and the Prospects of an Information Civilization
By: Shoshana Zuboff
This article describes an emergent logic of accumulation in the networked sphere, 'surveillance capitalism,' and considers its implications for 'information civilization.' The institutionalizing practices and operational assumptions of Google Inc. are the... View Details
- April 2015
- Article
Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System
By: Adi Sunderam
Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid-2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money... View Details
- March–April 2015
- Article
Why We Think We Can't Dance: Theory of Mind and Children's Desire to Perform
By: Lan Nguyen Chaplin and Michael I. Norton
Theory of Mind (ToM) allows children to achieve success in the social world by understanding others' minds. A study with 3–12 year olds, however, demonstrates that gains in ToM are linked to decreases in children's desire to engage in performative behaviors associated... View Details
- January 2015
- Article
Are Incentives Without Expertise Sufficient? Evidence from Fortune 500 Firms
By: Emilie R. Feldman and Cynthia A. Montgomery
Agency theory predicts that incentives will align agents' interests with those of principals. However, the resource-based view suggests that to be effective, the incentive to deliver must be paired with the ability to deliver. Using Fortune 500 boards as an... View Details
- December 2014
- Case
Groupon: A New CEO Takes Charge
By: Lynda M. Applegate and Arnold B. Peinado
On August 7, 2013, Eric Lefkofsky, the chairman and largest shareholder of Groupon was named CEO, replacing founder Andrew Mason, who had run the company since its inception in 2009. When Groupon had its initial public offering (IPO) in November 2011, the company's... View Details
- December 2014
- Article
Market Competition, Earnings Management, and Persistence in Accounting Profitability Around the World
We examine how cross-country differences in product, capital, and labor market competition, and earnings management affect mean reversion in accounting return on assets. Using a sample of 48,465 unique firms from 49 countries, we find that accounting returns mean... View Details
- Article
The Not-So-Common-Wealth of Australia: Evidence for a Cross-Cultural Desire for a More Equal Distribution of Wealth.
By: Michael I. Norton, David T. Neal, Cassandra L. Govan, Dan Ariely and Elise Holland
Recent evidence suggests that Americans underestimate wealth inequality in the United States and favor a more equal wealth distribution (Norton & Ariely, 2011). Does this pattern reflect ideological dynamics unique to the United States, or is the phenomenon evident in... View Details
- November 2014
- Article
Evidence on Self-Stereotyping and the Contribution of Ideas
We use a lab experiment to explore the factors that predict an individual's decision to contribute her idea to a group. We find that contribution decisions depend upon the interaction of gender and the gender stereotype associated with the decision-making domain:... View Details
- Article
The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential
By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala and Michael I. Norton
Influence practitioners often highlight a target's achievements (e.g., "she is the city's top-rated chef"), but recent research reveals that highlighting a target's potential (e.g., "she could become the city's top-rated chef") can be more effective. We examine whether... View Details
- October 2014
- Teaching Note
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and (B)
By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth Meyer
This is the teaching note to HBS case 214-085: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
- October 2014
- Supplement
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Excel Supplement
By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the Excel Supplement to Teaching Note 215-022: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B). View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; United States; Republic of Ireland