Publications

Purchase

We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing... View Details

23 Feb 2015
Research & Ideas

How to Break the Expert’s Curse

a beginner, that could actually have powerful implications for how advising takes place in an organization. It has implications for how experts can better understand those who have less experience than they do." Note to managers: If your... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Education

June 2018
Article

Video Content Marketing: The Making of Clips

By: Xuan Liu, Savannah Wei Shi, Thales S. Teixeira and Michel Wedel

Consumers have an increasingly wide variety of options available to entertain themselves. This poses a challenge for content aggregators who want to effectively promote their video content online through original trailers of movies, sitcoms, and video games. Marketers... View Details

Keywords: Film Entertainment; Marketing; Digital Marketing; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Improvement

2019
Working Paper

Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta

Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability, or their responsiveness to a... View Details

Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit

Working Paper

The Returns to Skills During the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Uganda

By: Livia Alfonsi, Vittorio Bassi, Imran Rasul and Elena Spadini

The Covid-19 pandemic represents one of the most significant labor market shocks to the world economy in recent times. We present evidence from a field experiment to understand whether and why skilled and unskilled workers were differentially impacted by the shock, in... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; System Shocks; Labor; Competency and Skills; Development Economics; Uganda

Purchase

22 May 2007
Working Paper Summaries

The Speed of New Ideas: Trust, Institutions and the Diffusion of New Products

Keywords: by Felix Oberholzer-Gee & Joel Waldfogel

2025
Working Paper

Narrative AI and the Human-AI Oversight Paradox in Evaluating Early-Stage Innovations

By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh and Pei-Hsin Wang

Do AI-generated narrative explanations enhance human oversight or diminish it? We investigate this question through a field experiment with 228 evaluators screening 48 early-stage innovations under three conditions: human-only, black-box AI recommendations without... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Models; AI and Machine Learning; Innovation and Invention; Decision Making

July 2024
Article

Chatbots and Mental Health: Insights into the Safety of Generative AI

By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp and Stefano Puntoni

Chatbots are now able to engage in sophisticated conversations with consumers. Due to the ‘black box’ nature of the algorithms, it is impossible to predict in advance how these conversations will unfold. Behavioral research provides little insight into potential safety... View Details

Keywords: Autonomy; Chatbots; New Technology; Brand Crises; Mental Health; Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning; Behavior; Well-being; Technological Innovation; Ethics

2023
Working Paper

Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov

Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms)... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science

May 2020
Article

To Be or Not to Be Your Authentic Self? Catering to Others' Expectations and Interests Hinders Performance

By: Francesca Gino, Ovul Sezer and Laura Huang

When approaching interpersonal first meetings (e.g., job interviews), people often cater to the target’s interests and expectations to make a good impression and secure a positive outcome such as being offered the job (pilot study). This strategy is distinct from other... View Details

Keywords: Authenticity; Catering; Honesty; Selection; Impression Management; Interpersonal Communication; Behavior; Performance

February 2020
Article

Why Prosocial Referral Incentives Work: The Interplay of Reputational Benefits and Action Costs

By: Rachel Gershon, Cynthia Cryder and Leslie K. John

While selfish incentives typically outperform prosocial incentives, in the context of customer referral rewards, prosocial incentives can be more effective. Companies frequently offer “selfish” (i.e., sender-benefiting) referral incentives, offering customers financial... View Details

Keywords: Incentives; Prosocial Behavior; Judgment And Decision-making; Referral Rewards; Motivation and Incentives; Consumer Behavior; Decision Making

Nine studies investigate when and why people may paradoxically prefer bad news—e.g., hoping for an objectively worse injury or a higher-risk diagnosis over explicitly better alternatives. Using a combination of field surveys and randomized experiments, the... View Details

The Psychosocial Value of Employment

In settings where employment opportunities are scarce, the inability to work may generate psychosocial harm. This paper presents a causal estimate of the psychosocial value of employment in the Rohingya refugee camps of Bangladesh. We engage 745 individuals in a field... View Details

Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of... View Details

June 2017
Article

Creating Reciprocal Value Through Operational Transparency

By: Ryan W. Buell, Tami Kim and Chia-Jung Tsay

We investigate whether organizations can create value by introducing visual transparency between consumers and producers. Although operational transparency has been shown to improve consumer perceptions of service value, existing theory posits that increased contact... View Details

Keywords: Operational Transparency; Service Management; Production Management; Organizational Performance; Behavioral Operations; Service Operations; Service Delivery; Consumer Behavior; Labor; Organizational Design; Operations; Service Industry; United States; Kenya