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      • June 2016
      • Teaching Note

      HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI

      By: Jill Avery, Asis Martinez Jerez and Thomas Steenburgh
      HubSpot, a web marketing startup selling inbound marketing software to small- and medium-sized businesses, is under pressure from its venture capital partners to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. The B2B SaaS company is in the... View Details
      Keywords: CRM; Customer Acquisition; Customer Retention; Churn Management; SaaS Business Models; Customer Lifetime Value; Venture Capital; Startup; Software; Monitoring And Control; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Marketing Strategy; Accounting; Technology Industry; United States
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      Avery, Jill, Asis Martinez Jerez, and Thomas Steenburgh. "HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 116-051, June 2016.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Management as a Technology?

      By: Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      Are some management practices akin to a technology that can explain firm and national productivity, or do they simply reflect contingent management styles? We collect data on core management practices from over 11,000 firms in 34 countries. We find large cross-country... View Details
      Keywords: Management Practices; Productivity; Competition; Management Practices and Processes; Performance Productivity
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      Bloom, Nicholas, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Management as a Technology?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-133, June 2016. (Revised October 2017.)
      • June 2016
      • Article

      Vaccination Rates Are Associated with Functional Proximity but Not Base Proximity of Vaccination Clinics

      By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Gwendolyn I. Reynolds
      Background: Routine annual influenza vaccinations are recommended for persons 6 months of age and older, but less than half of U.S. adults get vaccinated. Many employers offer employees free influenza vaccinations at workplace clinics, but even then take-up is... View Details
      Keywords: Geographic Location; Employees; Health Care and Treatment
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      Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, and Gwendolyn I. Reynolds. "Vaccination Rates Are Associated with Functional Proximity but Not Base Proximity of Vaccination Clinics." Medical Care 54, no. 6 (June 2016): 578–583.
      • May 20, 2016
      • Comment

      World Health Organization Lacks Leadership to Combat Pandemics

      By: John A. Quelch
      When it comes to emergency preparedness for pandemics, the World Health Organization is falling short. It has not provided prompt and clear leadership to the world in combating either the Ebola or Zika viruses. Its leadership has been low energy, its representatives... View Details
      Keywords: Global Health; World Health Organization; World Bank; Pandemics; Emergency Preparedness; Experience and Expertise; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Communication Strategy; Nonverbal Communication; Framework; Governance; Government and Politics; Health; Management; Practice; Problems and Challenges; Projects; Risk and Uncertainty; Human Needs; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Welfare or Wellbeing; Biotechnology Industry; Health Industry; Journalism and News Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Public Administration Industry; Tourism Industry; Transportation Industry; Travel Industry; Africa; Asia; Europe; Latin America; North and Central America; South America; West Indies
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      Quelch, John A. "World Health Organization Lacks Leadership to Combat Pandemics." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (May 20, 2016).
      • Article

      Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage

      By: K. A. DeCelles and Michael I. Norton
      We posit that the modern airplane is a social microcosm of class-based society, and that the increasing incidence of “air rage” can be understood through the lens of inequality. Research on inequality typically examines the effects of relatively fixed, macrostructural... View Details
      Keywords: Physical Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Air Transportation; Situation or Environment
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      DeCelles, K. A., and Michael I. Norton. "Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 20 (May 17, 2016): 5588–5591.
      • Article

      Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy

      By: Edward Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca
      The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to... View Details
      Keywords: User-generated Content; Operations; Tournaments; Policy-making; Machine Learning; Online Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; City; Infrastructure; Business Processes; Government and Politics
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      Glaeser, Edward, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers, and Michael Luca. "Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 106, no. 5 (May 2016): 114–118.
      • 2016
      • Article

      Recursive Mentalizing and Common Knowledge in the Bystander Effect

      By: Kyle A. Thomas, Julian De Freitas, Peter DiScioli and Steven Pinker
      The more potential helpers there are, the less likely any individual is to help. A traditional explanation for this bystander effect is that responsibility diffuses across the multiple bystanders, diluting the responsibility of each. We investigate an... View Details
      Keywords: Bystander Effect; Diffusion Of Responsibility; Volunteer's Dilemma; Common Knowledge; Theory Of Mind; Behavior; Theory
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      Thomas, Kyle A., Julian De Freitas, Peter DiScioli, and Steven Pinker. "Recursive Mentalizing and Common Knowledge in the Bystander Effect." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 145, no. 5 (2016): 621–629.
      • 2016
      • Article

      The Mirroring Hypothesis: Theory, Evidence, and Exceptions

      By: Lyra J. Colfer and Carliss Y. Baldwin
      The mirroring hypothesis predicts that organizational ties within a project, firm, or group of firms (e.g., communication, collocation, employment) will correspond to the technical dependencies in the work being performed. This article presents a unified picture of... View Details
      Keywords: Modularity; Mirroring Hypothesis; Organization Design; Conway's Law; Knowledge Boundaries; Relational Contracts; Open Source Software; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Boundaries; Knowledge Management; Applications and Software
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      Colfer, Lyra J., and Carliss Y. Baldwin. "The Mirroring Hypothesis: Theory, Evidence, and Exceptions." Industrial and Corporate Change 25, no. 5 (2016): 709–738. (Lead Article.)
      • 2016
      • Working Paper

      The Mirroring Hypothesis: Theory, Evidence and Exceptions

      By: Lyra J. Colfer and Carliss Y. Baldwin
      The mirroring hypothesis predicts that organizational ties within a project, firm, or group of firms (e.g., communication, collocation, employment) will correspond to the technical patterns of dependency in the work being performed. A thorough understanding of the... View Details
      Keywords: Modularity; Innovation; Product And Process Development; Organization Design; Design Structure; Organizational Ties; Mirroring Hypothesis; Industry Architecture; Product Architecture; Complex Technical Systems; Information Technology; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Relationships; Innovation and Invention; Product Development
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      Colfer, Lyra J., and Carliss Y. Baldwin. "The Mirroring Hypothesis: Theory, Evidence and Exceptions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-124, April 2016. (Revised May 2016.)
      • Article

      Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
      • 2016
      • Working Paper

      Paying for the Truth: The Efficacy of a Peer Prediction Mechanism in the Field

      By: Natalia Rigol and Benjamin N. Roth
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      Rigol, Natalia, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Paying for the Truth: The Efficacy of a Peer Prediction Mechanism in the Field." Working Paper, April 2016.
      • Article

      Third-party Punishment as a Costly Signal of Trustworthiness

      By: Jillian J. Jordan, Moshe Hoffman, Paul Bloom and David G. Rand
      Third-party punishment (TPP), in which unaffected observers punish selfishness, promotes cooperation by deterring defection. But why should individuals choose to bear the costs of punishing? We present a game theoretic model of TPP as a costly signal of... View Details
      Keywords: Third-party Punishment; Trustworthiness; Behavior; Trust; Game Theory
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      Jordan, Jillian J., Moshe Hoffman, Paul Bloom, and David G. Rand. "Third-party Punishment as a Costly Signal of Trustworthiness." Nature 530, no. 7591 (2016): 473–476.
      • Winter 2016
      • Article

      Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization

      By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi
      We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time... View Details
      Keywords: Internet and the Web; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Sales; Retail Industry
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      Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi. "Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18, no. 1 (Winter 2016): 69–88.
      • Article

      Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction

      By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Stephen H. Bach and Jure Leskovec
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      Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Stephen H. Bach, and Jure Leskovec. "Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction." Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 22nd (2016).
      • Article

      Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes

      By: Michal Kosinki, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jure Leskovec
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      Kosinki, Michal, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Jure Leskovec. "Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes." Psychological Methods 21, no. 4 (December 2016): 493–506.
      • 2016
      • Chapter

      Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Keywords: Investment Return; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Chap. 10 in Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, edited by Pietro Veronesi, 191–209. Wiley Handbooks in Financial Engineering and Econometrics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

      By: Emil Siriwardane
      I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics
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      Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
      • November 2015
      • Article

      Influence of Experience and the Surgical Learning Curve on Long-term Patient Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery

      By: Bryan M. Burt, Andrew W. ElBardissi, Robert S. Huckman, Lawrence H. Cohn, Marisa W. Cevasco, James D. Rawn, Sary F. Aranki and John G. Byrne
      OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that increased post-graduate surgical experience correlates with improved operative efficiency and long-term survival in standard cardiac surgery procedures.

      METHODS: Utilizing a prospectively collected retrospective database,... View Details
      Keywords: Service Delivery; Value; Health Care and Treatment; Experience and Expertise; Health Industry
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      Burt, Bryan M., Andrew W. ElBardissi, Robert S. Huckman, Lawrence H. Cohn, Marisa W. Cevasco, James D. Rawn, Sary F. Aranki, and John G. Byrne. "Influence of Experience and the Surgical Learning Curve on Long-term Patient Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery." Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 150, no. 5 (November 2015): 1061–1067.
      • October 2015
      • Article

      Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes

      By: William R. Kerr and Scott Duke Kominers
      We model spatial clusters of similar firms. Our model highlights how agglomerative forces lead to localized, individual connections among firms, while interaction costs generate a defined distance over which attraction forces operate. Overlapping firm interactions... View Details
      Keywords: Agglomeration; Clusters; Industrial Organization; Silicon Valley; Technology Flows; Patents; Networks; Information Technology; Industry Clusters; Entrepreneurship; California
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      Kerr, William R., and Scott Duke Kominers. "Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes." Review of Economics and Statistics 97, no. 4 (October 2015): 877–899.
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Do People Shape Cities, or Do Cities Shape People? The Co-evolution of Physical, Social, and Economic Change in Five Major U.S. Cities

      By: Nikhil Naik, Scott Duke Kominers, Ramesh Raskar, Edward L. Glaeser and Cesar Hidalgo
      Urban change involves transformations in the physical appearance and the social composition of neighborhoods. Yet, the relationship between the physical and social components of urban change is not well understood due to the lack of comprehensive measures of... View Details
      Keywords: Demographics; Urban Development; Change; Economics
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      Naik, Nikhil, Scott Duke Kominers, Ramesh Raskar, Edward L. Glaeser, and Cesar Hidalgo. "Do People Shape Cities, or Do Cities Shape People? The Co-evolution of Physical, Social, and Economic Change in Five Major U.S. Cities." Working Paper.
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