Forecasting And Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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December 2007
Article

The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance

By: Michael B. Clement, Lisa Koonce and Thomas Lopez

Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts’ general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Learning; Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry

04 Oct 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Soul and Machine (Learning)

Keywords: by Davide Proserpio, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano et al.

2008
Article

Warmth and Competence As Universal Dimensions of Social Perception: The Stereotype Content Model and the BIAS Map

By: A. J.C. Cuddy, S. T. Fiske and P. Glick

The stereotype content model (SCM) defines two fundamental dimensions of social perception, warmth and competence, predicted respectively by perceived competition and status. Combinations of warmth and competence generate distinct emotions of admiration, contempt,... View Details

Keywords: Perception; Competency and Skills; Prejudice and Bias; Emotions; Business Model; Behavior; Research; Competition; Status and Position; Cognition and Thinking; Groups and Teams

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May 1997
Teaching Note

Module Overview: Coordinating and Managing Supply Chains: Matching Supply and Demand TN

By: Ananth Raman

Prepares students to configure operating and distribution systems to provide product (or service) supply to match customer demand. Begins by introducing students to the supply-demand mismatch problem, documenting its significance in many companies, and suggesting ways... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Working Capital; Distribution; Cost of Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Supply Chain Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Supply and Industry

February 2006 (Revised August 2006)
Case

Kevin McCarthy and Westlake Chemical Corporation (A)

Examines forecasting earnings/performance for a commodity chemical firm during a period of high uncertainty, highlighting the combined effects of input process (natural gas), industry capacity/utilization, and cyclicality. Assuming the role of Kevin McCarthy (the top... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Futures and Commodity Futures; Forecasting and Prediction; Chemicals; Chemical Industry

2014
Working Paper

Financing Risk and Innovation

By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Venture Capital; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Investment; Price Bubble; Innovation and Invention; Technological Innovation; Risk and Uncertainty

2016
Working Paper

The Mirroring Hypothesis: Theory, Evidence and Exceptions

By: Lyra J. Colfer and Carliss Y. Baldwin

The mirroring hypothesis predicts that organizational ties within a project, firm, or group of firms (e.g., communication, collocation, employment) will correspond to the technical patterns of dependency in the work being performed. A thorough understanding of the... View Details

Keywords: Modularity; Innovation; Product And Process Development; Organization Design; Design Structure; Organizational Ties; Mirroring Hypothesis; Industry Architecture; Product Architecture; Complex Technical Systems; Information Technology; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Relationships; Innovation and Invention; Product Development

2013
Article

Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance

By: David F. Larcker, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang

Firms with central or well-connected boards of directors earn superior risk-adjusted stock returns. Initiating a long position in the most central firms and a short position in the least central firms earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with... View Details

Keywords: Networks; Governing and Advisory Boards; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance

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September 2023
Article

Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement

By: George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon

We investigate whether ESG ratings predict future ESG news and the associated market reactions. We find that the consensus rating predicts future news, but its predictive ability diminishes for firms with large disagreement between raters. Relation between news and... View Details

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Article

Dying Is Unexpectedly Positive

By: Amelia Goranson, Ryan S. Ritter, Adam Waytz, Michael I. Norton and Kurt Gray

In people’s imagination, dying seems dreadful; however, these perceptions may not reflect reality. In two studies, we compared the affective experience of people facing imminent death with that of people imagining imminent death. Study 1 revealed that blog posts of... View Details

Keywords: Death; Language; LIWC; Positivity; Affective Forecasting; Open Materials; Perspective; Attitudes

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TeachingInterests

Strategy - Building and Sustaining Competitive Advantage

By: Jan W. Rivkin

With the accelerating pace of competition, cutting-edge companies are defined by innovative strategies. In this Executive Education program, we explore how to develop groundbreaking stratgies and action plans for execution, forecast industry evolution, and analyze... View Details

October 1994 (Revised January 1997)
Case

Nestle Refrigerated Foods: Contadina Pasta and Pizza (A)

By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Marie Bell

Nestle Co.'s Refrigerated Foods Division has very successfully launched its Contadina brand pasta and sauces. The new product has achieved nearly $100 million in sales in three years. The division now considers an extension into the pizza line. This case provides a... View Details

Keywords: Business Divisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Launch; Sales; Commercialization; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

TeachingInterests

Strategy: Building and Sustaining Competitive Advantage

In the fight for market leadership, your company must be able to build a winning strategy—and execute it seamlessly across multiple business lines. This program prepares you to identify and exploit sources of competitive advantage and implement game-changing... View Details

April 2017
Article

Financing Risk and Innovation

By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financing and Loans; Innovation and Invention

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Research Summary

Self-environment relationship and its effect on decisions under risk and uncertainty

My research seek to better understand the main cognitive and social abilities that guide our judgments, and the ways they interact with aspects of the situation to shape humans' decisions. It is currently comprised of three related... View Details

2023
Working Paper

Algorithm Failures and Consumers' Response: Evidence from Zillow

By: Isamar Troncoso, Runshan Fu, Nikhil Malik and Davide Proserpio

In November 2021, Zillow announced the closure of its iBuyer business. Popular media largely attributed this to a failure of its proprietary forecasting algorithm. We study the response of consumers to Zillow’s iBuyer business closure. We show that after the iBuyer... View Details

Keywords: Algorithmic Pricing; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Real Estate Industry

March 2005
Article

Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

By: Robin Greenwood

I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details

Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan

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2023
Working Paper

Complexity and Time

By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives

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2005
Working Paper

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

The Link Between Bonds and Individual Stocks

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details

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