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      • Faculty Publications  (2,819)

      Judgment And Decision MakingRemove Judgment And Decision Making →

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      • April–June 2022
      • Other Article

      Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'

      By: Edward McFowland III
      There has been a substantial discussion in various methodological and applied literatures around causal inference; especially in the use of machine learning and statistical models to understand heterogeneity in treatment effects and to make optimal decision... View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Treatment Effect Estimation; Treatment Assignment Policy; Human-in-the-loop; Decision Making; Fairness
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      McFowland III, Edward. "Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 1 (April–June 2022): 21–22.
      • 2022
      • Book

      Decision Leadership: Empowering Others to Make Better Choices

      By: Don A. Moore and Max H. Bazerman
      When we think of leaders, we often imagine lone, inspirational figures lauded for their behaviors, attributes, and personal decisions, and leadership books often reinforce that view. However, this approach ignores a leader’s mission to empower others. Applying decades... View Details
      Keywords: Empowerment Leadership; Leadership; Employees; Decision Making; Management Style
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      Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. Decision Leadership: Empowering Others to Make Better Choices. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S.

      By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
      We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a U.S.-wide voter-level panel, 2008–18, we examine voters who relocate... View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Behavior; Geographic Location; Personal Characteristics; Situation or Environment; United States
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      Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S." American Economic Review 112, no. 4 (April 2022): 1226–1272.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      THEMIS: A Framework for Cost-Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li and Saksham Soni
      Since December 2019, the world has been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 150 million confirmed cases and 3 million confirmed deaths worldwide. To combat the spread of COVID-19, governments have issued unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs),... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Policy; Framework; Cost vs Benefits; Outcome or Result; United States; Germany; Brazil; Singapore; Spain
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, and Saksham Soni. "THEMIS: A Framework for Cost-Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions." Working Paper, April 2022.
      • March 2022
      • Case

      Auto Mag (Abridged)

      By: David E. Bell
      A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to... View Details
      Keywords: Distribution; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bell, David E. "Auto Mag (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 122-096, March 2022.
      • March 2022
      • Teaching Note

      Tomorrow.io Goes To Space

      By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Abhishek Nagaraj and James Barnett
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 822-005. In March 2021, the weather company Tomorrow.io announced a new project to develop satellites equipped with radar for weather monitoring and launch them into Earth’s orbit. Company leadership considers execution strategies. View Details
      Keywords: Communication; Competency and Skills; Decision Making; Design; Engineering; Globalization; Innovation and Invention; Performance; Technological Innovation; Aerospace Industry
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      Krieger, Joshua Lev, Abhishek Nagaraj, and James Barnett. "Tomorrow.io Goes To Space." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 822-102, March 2022.
      • March 2022 (Revised November 2022)
      • Case

      When Should CEOs Speak Out Publicly? The 2021 Georgia Voting Law

      By: William W. George, Hubert Joly and Amram Migdal
      This case describes the March 2021 passage of a voting and elections law in the U.S. state of Georgia and reactions by corporations and corporate leaders to the law. Included are a brief history of voting rights in the United States and Georgia and an overview of the... View Details
      Keywords: Voting Rights; CEO Activism; Communication; Communication Intention and Meaning; Communication Strategy; Forms of Communication; Announcements; Spoken Communication; Decision Making; Judgments; Voting; Demographics; Nationality; Race; Geography; Geographic Location; Geopolitical Units; Country; Government and Politics; Government Administration; Government Legislation; Political Elections; History; Law; Laws and Statutes; Rights; Leadership; Leadership Style; Management; Management Skills; Relationships; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Social Psychology; Status and Position; Society; Civil Society or Community; Culture; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Societal Protocols; United States; Georgia (state, US)
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      George, William W., Hubert Joly, and Amram Migdal. "When Should CEOs Speak Out Publicly? The 2021 Georgia Voting Law." Harvard Business School Case 322-015, March 2022. (Revised November 2022.)
      • March 2022 (Revised January 2023)
      • Case

      Clara Wu Tsai and Brooklyn Loan Innovation

      By: Archie L. Jones, Jeffrey J. Bussgang and Henry McGee
      Philanthropist Clara Wu Tsai is committed to racial equity and investing in Brooklyn-based minority business owners. In the wake of the George Floyd murder, she decides to create a new initiative called the Social Justice Fund and commit an initial $50 million over 10... View Details
      Keywords: Minority-owned Businesses; Racial Equity; Entrepreneurship; Race; Values and Beliefs; Small Business; Partners and Partnerships; Social Issues; Investment; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Decision Making; Brooklyn
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      Jones, Archie L., Jeffrey J. Bussgang, and Henry McGee. "Clara Wu Tsai and Brooklyn Loan Innovation." Harvard Business School Case 822-124, March 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
      • March 2022
      • Case

      DealShare: Social E-Commerce for the Indian Mass Market

      By: Krishna G. Palepu and Malini Sen
      Launched in September 2018, e-retail startup DealShare has created a tech-enabled model for the Indian mass market that allows customers to buy together, save money on good quality goods, and at the same time have fun. It targets customers who are still getting used to... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Disruption; Trends; Talent and Talent Management; Customer Focus and Relationships; Value; Cost vs Benefits; Value Creation; Internet and the Web; India
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      Palepu, Krishna G., and Malini Sen. "DealShare: Social E-Commerce for the Indian Mass Market." Harvard Business School Case 322-099, March 2022.
      • Article

      Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)

      By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

      An inherent risk of algorithmic personalization is disproportionate targeting of individuals from certain groups (or demographic characteristics such as gender or race), even when the decision maker does not intend to discriminate based on those “protected”... View Details

      Keywords: Algorithm Bias; Personalization; Targeting; Generalized Random Forests (GRF); Discrimination; Customization and Personalization; Decision Making; Fairness; Mathematical Methods
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)." e2115126119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 11 (March 8, 2022).
      • March 2022 (Revised April 2022)
      • Case

      MTN: Unlocking Value While Driving Socioeconomic Progress

      By: Benjamin C. Esty, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Dilyana Karadzhova Botha
      On March 10, 2021, Ralph Mupita the new CEO of MTN Group, Africa's largest telecommunications company, presented the group’s 2020 annual results and unveiled a new strategy to “drive growth and unlock value.” Despite MTN’s leadership in most of its markets, the... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Goals and Objectives; Valuation; Emerging Markets; Business Strategy; Financial Management; Information Technology; Corporate Finance; Telecommunications Industry; Africa; South Africa; Ghana; Nigeria
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      Esty, Benjamin C., Pippa Tubman Armerding, and Dilyana Karadzhova Botha. "MTN: Unlocking Value While Driving Socioeconomic Progress." Harvard Business School Case 722-371, March 2022. (Revised April 2022.)
      • March 2022 (Revised November 2024)
      • Case

      Aldrich Capital Partners

      By: Jo Tango and Alys Ferragamo
      By July 2016, the Aldrich Capital Partners team had spent over two years trying to raise their inaugural growth-equity fund. They had pitched to over 140 investors, but none had committed. Managing Partners Mirza Baig and Raz Zia each had extensive experience in the... View Details
      Keywords: Growth Equity; Investment Evaluation; Entrepreneurship; Private Equity; Investment; Strategy; Decision Making; United States
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      Tango, Jo, and Alys Ferragamo. "Aldrich Capital Partners." Harvard Business School Case 822-090, March 2022. (Revised November 2024.)
      • March 2022
      • Teaching Note

      Digital Manufacturing at Amgen

      By: Shane Greenstein, Kyle R. Myers and Sarah Mehta
      This teaching note provides guidance for instructors teaching “Digital Manufacturing at Amgen,” case no. 621-008. View Details
      Keywords: Change; Change Management; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Information Technology; Analytics and Data Science; Innovation and Invention; Innovation and Management; Innovation Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Technological Innovation; Jobs and Positions; Knowledge; Leadership; Organizational Culture; Science; Strategy; Technology Adoption; Biotechnology Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States; California; Puerto Rico; Rhode Island
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      Greenstein, Shane, Kyle R. Myers, and Sarah Mehta. "Digital Manufacturing at Amgen." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 622-013, March 2022.
      • March 2022 (Revised October 2022)
      • Case

      John F. Kennedy: Changing the World

      By: Robert Simons and Max Saffer
      This case traces the rise of John F. Kennedy from a wealthy family in Boston to president of the United States. The case describes how Kennedy, as a young man, lived a privileged life in the shadow of his older brother, Joe. When Joe was killed in World War II, Jack... View Details
      Keywords: Politics; Business And Government; Legacy; Leadership Development; Personal Characteristics; Business and Government Relations; Success; Power and Influence; Decision Making; Personal Development and Career; United States
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      Simons, Robert, and Max Saffer. "John F. Kennedy: Changing the World." Harvard Business School Case 122-088, March 2022. (Revised October 2022.)
      • March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
      • Case

      Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)

      By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco
      In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details
      Keywords: Compensation; Collaboration; Executive Search Firms; Consulting Firms; Compensation and Benefits; Restructuring; Human Resources; Human Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Culture; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management; Consulting Industry; Employment Industry; Asia; Europe; Latin America; Middle East; North and Central America; South America; Oceania
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      Bernstein, Ethan, and Cara Mazzucco. "Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)." Harvard Business School Case 422-045, March 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
      • March 2022
      • Supplement

      Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)

      By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco
      In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details
      Keywords: Compensation; Collaboration; Executive Search Firms; Consulting Firms; Compensation and Benefits; Restructuring; Human Resources; Human Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Culture; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management; Consulting Industry; Employment Industry; Asia; Europe; Latin America; Middle East; North and Central America; South America; Oceania
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      Bernstein, Ethan, and Cara Mazzucco. "Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 422-046, March 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Open or Closed? Your Mind, Your Decision!

      By: Gerald Zaltman
      The marketing profession faces challenging times. The shelf life for decisions and the half-life of the knowledge used, are becoming shorter and shorter while the problems addressed are becoming messier. Fortunately, the emergence of what I call the “prosthetic age” is... View Details
      Keywords: Marketing; Information; Cognition and Thinking; Innovation and Invention
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      Zaltman, Gerald. "Open or Closed? Your Mind, Your Decision!" Special Issue on Reflections of Eminent Marketing Scholars. Foundations and Trends® in Marketing 16, nos. 1-2 (2022): 300–307.
      • March 2022 (Revised December 2022)
      • Case

      Perch

      By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Stacy Straaberg and Julia Kelley
      In May 2021, Perch CEO Chris Bell needed to decide whether his e-commerce aggregator company, which bought and scaled Amazon Marketplace brands, should acquire up to three acquisition targets. The prospective acquisitions, Web Deals Direct, HomeCo, and Future Brands,... View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Strategy; Business Strategy; Integration; E-commerce; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry; Technology Industry; North America; United States; Massachusetts; Boston; California; Asia; Philippines
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      Rayport, Jeffrey F., Stacy Straaberg, and Julia Kelley. "Perch." Harvard Business School Case 822-087, March 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Sensitivity Analysis of Agent-based Models: A New Protocol

      By: Emanuele Borgonovo, Marco Pangallo, Jan Rivkin, Leonardo Rizzo and Nicolaj Siggelkow
      Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in the management sciences. Though useful, ABMs are often critiqued: it is hard to discern why they produce the results they do and whether other assumptions would yield similar results. To help researchers address such... View Details
      Keywords: Agent-based Modeling; Sensitivity Analysis; Design Of Experiments; Total Order Sensitivity Indices; Organizations; Behavior; Decision Making; Mathematical Methods
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      Borgonovo, Emanuele, Marco Pangallo, Jan Rivkin, Leonardo Rizzo, and Nicolaj Siggelkow. "Sensitivity Analysis of Agent-based Models: A New Protocol." Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory 28, no. 1 (March 2022): 52–94.
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