Algorithmic Decision Making - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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April 2022 (Revised August 2022)
Case

Conflicts of Interest at Uptown Bank

By: Jonas Heese

In 2013, two employees debated whether to blow the whistle on their employer, Bell Bank, after completing an internal review that revealed undisclosed conflicts of interest. Bell Bank’s Asset Management business disproportionately invested clients’ money in Bell Bank’s... View Details

April 12, 2022
Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships

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April 2022 (Revised April 2023)
Case

Highland Park Wood Co. (Abridged)

By: David E. Bell

A major home builder wishes to purchase lumber (Southern pine). The builder wants delivery in six months but prefers to lock-in the price near current rates. The lumber wholesaler must decide on a pricing and sourcing strategy. Examples include: 1) buy & hold, 2) wait... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Goods and Commodities; Futures and Commodity Futures; Price; Forest Products Industry; Construction Industry

April–June 2022
Other Article

Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Eﬀect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'

By: Edward McFowland III

There has been a substantial discussion in various methodological and applied literatures around causal inference; especially in the use of machine learning and statistical models to understand heterogeneity in treatment effects and to make optimal decision... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Treatment Effect Estimation; Treatment Assignment Policy; Human-in-the-loop; Decision Making; Fairness

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2022
Book

Decision Leadership: Empowering Others to Make Better Choices

By: Don A. Moore and Max H. Bazerman

When we think of leaders, we often imagine lone, inspirational figures lauded for their behaviors, attributes, and personal decisions, and leadership books often reinforce that view. However, this approach ignores a leader’s mission to empower others. Applying decades... View Details

Keywords: Empowerment Leadership; Leadership; Employees; Decision Making; Management Style

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April 2022
Article

Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S.

By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons

We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a U.S.-wide voter-level panel, 2008–18, we examine voters who relocate... View Details

Keywords: Voting; Behavior; Geographic Location; Personal Characteristics; Situation or Environment; United States

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April 2022
Article

Predictable Financial Crises

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

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2022
Working Paper

THEMIS: A Framework for Cost-Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li and Saksham Soni

Since December 2019, the world has been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 150 million confirmed cases and 3 million confirmed deaths worldwide. To combat the spread of COVID-19, governments have issued unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs),... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Policy; Framework; Cost vs Benefits; Outcome or Result; United States; Germany; Brazil; Singapore; Spain

March 2022
Case

Auto Mag (Abridged)

By: David E. Bell

A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to... View Details

Keywords: Distribution; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

March 2022
Teaching Note

Tomorrow.io Goes To Space

By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Abhishek Nagaraj and James Barnett

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 822-005. In March 2021, the weather company Tomorrow.io announced a new project to develop satellites equipped with radar for weather monitoring and launch them into Earth’s orbit. Company leadership considers execution strategies. View Details

Keywords: Communication; Competency and Skills; Decision Making; Design; Engineering; Globalization; Innovation and Invention; Performance; Technological Innovation; Aerospace Industry

March 2022 (Revised November 2022)
Case

When Should CEOs Speak Out Publicly? The 2021 Georgia Voting Law

By: William W. George, Hubert Joly and Amram Migdal

This case describes the March 2021 passage of a voting and elections law in the U.S. state of Georgia and reactions by corporations and corporate leaders to the law. Included are a brief history of voting rights in the United States and Georgia and an overview of the... View Details

March 2022 (Revised January 2023)
Case

Clara Wu Tsai and Brooklyn Loan Innovation

By: Archie L. Jones, Jeffrey J. Bussgang and Henry McGee

Philanthropist Clara Wu Tsai is committed to racial equity and investing in Brooklyn-based minority business owners. In the wake of the George Floyd murder, she decides to create a new initiative called the Social Justice Fund and commit an initial $50 million over 10... View Details

Keywords: Minority-owned Businesses; Racial Equity; Entrepreneurship; Race; Values and Beliefs; Small Business; Partners and Partnerships; Social Issues; Investment; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Decision Making; Brooklyn

March 2022
Case

DealShare: Social E-Commerce for the Indian Mass Market

By: Krishna G. Palepu and Malini Sen

Launched in September 2018, e-retail startup DealShare has created a tech-enabled model for the Indian mass market that allows customers to buy together, save money on good quality goods, and at the same time have fun. It targets customers who are still getting used to... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Disruption; Trends; Talent and Talent Management; Customer Focus and Relationships; Value; Cost vs Benefits; Value Creation; Internet and the Web; India

Article

Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)

By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

An inherent risk of algorithmic personalization is disproportionate targeting of individuals from certain groups (or demographic characteristics such as gender or race), even when the decision maker does not intend to discriminate based on those “protected”... View Details

Keywords: Algorithm Bias; Personalization; Targeting; Generalized Random Forests (GRF); Discrimination; Customization and Personalization; Decision Making; Fairness; Mathematical Methods

March 2022 (Revised April 2022)
Case

MTN: Unlocking Value While Driving Socioeconomic Progress

By: Benjamin C. Esty, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Dilyana Karadzhova Botha

On March 10, 2021, Ralph Mupita the new CEO of MTN Group, Africa's largest telecommunications company, presented the group’s 2020 annual results and unveiled a new strategy to “drive growth and unlock value.” Despite MTN’s leadership in most of its markets, the... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Goals and Objectives; Valuation; Emerging Markets; Business Strategy; Financial Management; Information Technology; Corporate Finance; Telecommunications Industry; Africa; South Africa; Ghana; Nigeria

March 2022 (Revised November 2024)
Case

Aldrich Capital Partners

By: Jo Tango and Alys Ferragamo

By July 2016, the Aldrich Capital Partners team had spent over two years trying to raise their inaugural growth-equity fund. They had pitched to over 140 investors, but none had committed. Managing Partners Mirza Baig and Raz Zia each had extensive experience in the... View Details

Keywords: Growth Equity; Investment Evaluation; Entrepreneurship; Private Equity; Investment; Strategy; Decision Making; United States

March 2022
Teaching Note

Digital Manufacturing at Amgen

By: Shane Greenstein, Kyle R. Myers and Sarah Mehta

This teaching note provides guidance for instructors teaching “Digital Manufacturing at Amgen,” case no. 621-008. View Details

March 2022 (Revised October 2022)
Case

John F. Kennedy: Changing the World

By: Robert Simons and Max Saffer

This case traces the rise of John F. Kennedy from a wealthy family in Boston to president of the United States. The case describes how Kennedy, as a young man, lived a privileged life in the shadow of his older brother, Joe. When Joe was killed in World War II, Jack... View Details

Keywords: Politics; Business And Government; Legacy; Leadership Development; Personal Characteristics; Business and Government Relations; Success; Power and Influence; Decision Making; Personal Development and Career; United States

March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
Case

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

March 2022
Supplement

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

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