Publications

17 May 2018
Sharpening Your Skills

You Probably Have a Bias for Making Bad Decisions. Here's Why.

taha ajmi/Unsplash Until the last year or so, the term "recency bias" was rarely a topic of cocktail conversation—unless it was a gathering of behavioral scientists letting their hair down. But then a news item surfaced about certain White House staffers who... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

1996
Working Paper

Independence on Relative Probability Spaces and Consistent Assessments in Game Trees

By: Elon Kohlberg and Philip J. Reny

August 1997
Article

Independence on Relative Probability Spaces and Consistent Assessments in Game Trees

By: Elon Kohlberg and Philip J. Reny

Keywords: Games, Gaming, and Gambling

2020
Chapter

Health Care Markets a Decade After the ACA: Bigger, but Probably Not Better

By: Leemore S. Dafny

Love it or hate it, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) embraced and extended the role of private markets in financing and delivering health care in the United States. Ten years after the ACA’s passage, it is unclear whether health care markets are better (along a range of... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Markets; Laws and Statutes; Outcome or Result; Health Industry; United States

2017
Working Paper

Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments

By: Daniel J. Benjamin, Don A. Moore and Matthew Rabin

This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood that short sequences and random subsets of coin flips would be... View Details

Keywords: Probability; Economic Theory; Analysis; Incentives

Read Now

September 2018 (Revised December 2019)
Case

Zebra Medical Vision

By: Shane Greenstein and Sarah Gulick

An Israeli startup founded in 2014, Zebra Medical Vision developed algorithms that produced diagnoses from X-rays, mammograms, and CT-scans. The algorithms used deep learning and digitized radiology scans to create software that could assist doctors in making... View Details

05 Dec 2016
Research & Ideas

How To Deceive Others With Truthful Statements (It's Called 'Paltering,' And It's Risky)

Business executives regularly use sly tactics to get a better deal during negotiations—often making statements that are technically true, but are purposely skewed to mislead the other side. It’s a distinct form of deception called paltering: the active use of truthful... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

17 Sep 2021
Research & Ideas

The Trial of Elizabeth Holmes: Visionary, Criminal, or Both?

operationalize that idea. Gazette: Do executives accused or convicted of large-scale crimes share any common traits or motivations, based on your research? Soltes: By and large, there’s not a strong sense of remorse and I suspect that’s View Details

Keywords: by Christina Pazzanese, Harvard Gazette; Biotechnology; Technology; Medical Devices & Supplies

November 2018
Case

Sportradar (A): From Data to Storytelling

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Karen Elterman and Oliver Gassmann

In 2013, the Swiss sports data company Sportradar debated whether to expand from its core business of data provision to bookmakers into sports media products. Sports data was becoming a commodity, and in the future, sports leagues might reduce their dependence on... View Details

December 2014
Article

Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments

By: Jennifer Brown and Dylan B. Minor

We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect—the stronger the expected future... View Details

Keywords: Elimination Tournament; Dynamic Contest; Contest Design; Effort Choice; Betting Markets; Competitive Advantage; Game Theory

Summer 2019
Article

The Plight of the Graying Tech Worker

By: William R. Kerr

If you’re in tech and over 40, your experience is probably underappreciated. A global talent pool complicates matters. View Details

Keywords: Employees; Age; Personal Development and Career; Immigration; Policy; Technology Industry; Computer Industry

Register to Read

03 Dec 2015
Op-Ed

How "New Nuclear" Power Could Save the Planet—If Regulators Would Allow It

Leaders from some 150 nations have convened in Paris this week for the COP21 conference with a singular goal: to fight the global threat of climate change. Each of them have brought to Paris their own national plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that drive... View Details

Keywords: by Joseph Lassiter; Energy

16 Mar 2009
Research & Ideas

When the Internet Runs Out of IP Addresses

roadblocks are delaying its widespread implementation, probably for many years. So what happens when the last IPv4 address is assigned? Harvard Business School professor Benjamin G. Edelman proposes a solution: Create a market for holders... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Telecommunications

December 2004 (Revised March 2006)
Background Note

Decision Trees

By: Robin Greenwood and Lucy White

This case introduces decision analysis. Using a simple example, it illustrates the use of probability trees and decision trees as tools for solving business problems. View Details

Keywords: Decision Making

October 2000 (Revised March 2003)
Case

Merck & Company: Evaluating a Drug Licensing Opportunity

By: Richard S. Ruback and David B Krieger

This explores the valuation of an opportunity to license a compound before it enters clinical trials. Describes Merck's decision tree evaluation process is presented. Information required to evaluate a specific licensing opportunity is provided, including the costs of... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Opportunities; Valuation; Outcome or Result; Pharmaceutical Industry

13 Jun 2018
Sharpening Your Skills

That Costs HOW Much?

graphicola Price is important to consumers not just because it determines whether they can afford to purchase that purse or patio set. The cost of an item sets the buyer's expectations as to how the product or service will perform and what kind of prestige will be... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Retail

Article

Lone Inventors as Sources of Technological Breakthroughs: Myth or Reality?

Are lone inventors more or less likely to invent breakthroughs? Recent research has attempted to resolve this question by considering the variance of creative outcome distributions. It has implicitly assumed a symmetric thickening or thinning of both tails, i.e., that... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Independent Innovation and Invention; Patents; Groups and Teams; Creativity