Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(845)
- Faculty Publications (191)
- January 2025
- Technical Note
AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix
By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart
This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details
- Working Paper
AI in Disguise—How AI-generated Ads' Visual Cues Shape Consumer Perception and Performance
By: Yannick Exner, Jochen Hartmann, Oded Netzer and Shunyuan Zhang
Generative AI’s recent advancements in creating content have offered vast potential to transform the advertising industry. This research investigates the impact of generative AI-enabled visual ad creation on real-world advertising effectiveness. For this purpose, we... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital
By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan
Ilya Kondrashov, CEO of Quantum Light Capital, was driven to harness AI for identifying high-potential scale-ups. Collaborating with Nik Storonsky, founder of Revolut, the duo observed that most venture capital (VC) decisions were heavily influenced by emotion, with... View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Business Finance; Data Analysis; Angel Investors; Cognitive Biases; Scale; Venture Capital; Investment; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Public Opinion; Private Sector; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Business Earnings; Behavioral Finance; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Business Startups; Financial Services Industry; London; United Kingdom
- 2025
- Article
Humor as a Window into Generative AI Bias
By: Roger Samure, Julian De Freitas and Stefano Puntoni
A preregistered audit of 600 images by generative AI across 150 different prompts explores the link between humor and discrimination in consumer-facing AI solutions. When ChatGPT updates images to make them “funnier”, the prevalence of stereotyped groups changes. While... View Details
- January 2025
- Article
Reducing Prejudice with Counter-stereotypical AI
By: Erik Hermann, Julian De Freitas and Stefano Puntoni
Based on a review of relevant literature, we propose that the proliferation of AI with human-like and social features presents an unprecedented opportunity to address the underlying cognitive and affective drivers of prejudice. An approach informed by the psychology of... View Details
- 2025
- Article
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with... View Details
- January–February 2025
- Article
Want Your Company to Get Better at Experimentation?: Learn Fast by Democratizing Testing
By: Iavor Bojinov, David Holtz, Ramesh Johari, Sven Schmit and Martin Tingley
For years, online experimentation has fueled the innovations of leading tech companies, enabling them to rapidly test and refine new ideas, optimize product features, personalize user experiences, and maintain a competitive edge. The widespread availability and lower... View Details
- December 2024
- Case
Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan (BCBSM): The AI Journey
By: Shikhar Ghosh
In early 2024, Bill Fandrich, Executive VP and CIO of Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan (BCBSM), faced a critical decision about AI adoption within the organization. Fandrich had championed AI implementation at BCBSM. After successfully developing three AI... View Details
Keywords: Blue Cross; Automation; Generative Ai; Health Insurance; Insurance Companies; Innovation; IT Strategy; Organizational Transformations; Technology; Non-profit; AI and Machine Learning; Health; Digital Strategy; Digital Transformation; Leadership; Technology Adoption; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Innovation Strategy; Health Industry; Insurance Industry; Michigan
- 2024
- Working Paper
Displacement or Complementarity? The Labor Market Impact of Generative AI
By: Wilbur Xinyuan Chen, Suraj Srinivasan and Saleh Zakerinia
Generative AI is poised to reshape the labor market, affecting cognitive and white-collar occupations in ways distinct from past technological revolutions. This study examines whether generative AI displaces workers or augments their jobs by analyzing labor demand and... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Why Most Resist AI Companions
By: Julian De Freitas, Zeliha Oğuz-Uğuralp, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp and Stefano Puntoni
AI companion applications—designed to serve as synthetic interaction partners—have recently
become capable enough to reduce loneliness, a growing public health concern. However,
behavioral research has yet to fully explain the barriers to adoption of such AI and... View Details
- November 2024
- Case
AlphaGo (A): Birth of a New Intelligence
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
This case, the first of a three-part series, traces DeepMind's evolution from its 2010 founding through its acquisition by Google in 2014. Often referred to as the "Apollo project" of artificial intelligence, DeepMind used games as a testing ground to develop AI... View Details
- November 2024
- Supplement
AlphaGo (B): Birth of a New Intelligence
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
This case, the second in a three-part series, explores DeepMind's evolution from developing game-specific AI to more generalized learning systems. Following AlphaGo's 2017 victory over the Go world champion, DeepMind introduced two revolutionary systems that eliminated... View Details
- November 2024
- Supplement
AlphaGo (C): Birth of a New Intelligence
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
This case, the final of a three-part series, explores DeepMind's pivotal transition from mastering games to solving real-world scientific challenges. In December 2020, DeepMind's AI system AlphaFold 2 achieved a breakthrough by solving protein folding—a 50-year-old... View Details
Keywords: Autonomy; Deep Learning; Drug Discovery; Healthcare Innovation; Neural Networks; Scientific Research; Technology Startup; AI and Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Business Model; Business Strategy; Open Source Distribution; Technology Industry; United States
- 2024
- Working Paper
Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models
By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang
We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details
- November 2024 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Cheerful Music
By: Shunyuan Zhang, Feng Zhu and Nancy Hua Dai
Established by Snow Jiang in 2019 in Shenzhen, China, Cheerful Music was a record label company that had created many hit songs in China. “Yi Xiao Jiang Hu,” its most famous hit song, gained billions of views on social media platforms in China and overseas as the... View Details
- November 2024 (Revised January 2025)
- Case
MiDAS: Automating Unemployment Benefits
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
In 2015, the state of Michigan considered whether to nominate its Michigan Integrated Data Automated System (MiDAS) for a prestigious state technology award. Launched in 2013 amid severe budget pressures, the $47 million automated fraud detection system was designed to... View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; AI; Machine Learning Models; Algorithmic Data; Automation; Benefits; Compensation; Cost Reduction; Government; Fraud; Government Technology; Public Sector; Systems; Systems Integration; Unemployment Insurance; Waste Heat Recovery; AI and Machine Learning; Government Administration; Insurance; Decision Making; Digital Transformation; Employment; Public Administration Industry; United States; Michigan
- November–December 2024
- Article
Outcome-Driven Dynamic Refugee Assignment with Allocation Balancing
By: Kirk Bansak and Elisabeth Paulson
This study proposes two new dynamic assignment algorithms to match refugees and asylum seekers to geographic localities within a host country. The first, currently implemented in a multi-year pilot in Switzerland, seeks to maximize the average predicted employment... View Details
- October 2024 (Revised February 2025)
- Case
AI and Brand Management: Promises and Perils
By: Julian De Freitas and Elie Ofek
As AI gains traction across industries, companies anticipate that AI will revolutionize both backend processes and customer-facing interactions—with brands eager to leverage AI for tailored marketing materials and automated consumer engagements. Yet, despite a dramatic... View Details
- September–October 2024
- Article
The Crowdless Future? Generative AI and Creative Problem-Solving
The rapid advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) open up attractive opportunities for creative problem-solving through human-guided AI partnerships. To explore this potential, we initiated a crowdsourcing challenge focused on sustainable, circular economy... View Details
- September 2024
- Background Note
Copyright and Fair Use
By: David B. Yoffie
The U.S. Copyright Office defines a copyright as “a type of intellectual property that protects original works of authorship as soon as an author fixes the work in a tangible form of expression.” Two core principles of copyright are originality and fixation. A work is... View Details