Stock Market Expectations - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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15 Feb 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer; Financial Services

30 Nov 2016
Working Paper Summaries

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

Keywords: by Antonio Falato and David Scharfstein; Financial Services; Banking

February 2020 (Revised April 2021)
Case

StockX: The Stock Market of Things

By: Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton, Annelena Lobb and Julia Kelley

Founded in 2015 by Dan Gilbert, Josh Luber, and Greg Schwartz, StockX was an online platform where users could buy and sell unworn luxury and limited-edition sneakers. Sneaker resale prices often fluctuated over time based on supply and demand, creating a robust... View Details

Article

Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Stocks; Investment Return; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Volatility; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance

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March 2011
Article

Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?

By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman

This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was... View Details

Keywords: Escalation Of Commitment; Stock Market; Updating; Behavioral Economics; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

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May 2011
Article

Institutional Stock Trading on Loan Market Information

By: Victoria Ivashina and Zheng Sun

Over the past decade, one of the most important developments in the corporate loan market has been the increasing participation of institutional investors in lending syndicates. As lenders, institutional investors routinely receive private information about borrowers.... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Financing and Loans; Negotiation; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return

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March 2004 (Revised October 2013)
Case

Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns

By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen

What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details

April 2021 (Revised July 2021)
Case

StockX: The Stock Market of Things (Abridged)

By: Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton, Annelena Lobb and Julia Kelley

Founded in 2015 by Dan Gilbert, Josh Luber, and Greg Schwartz, StockX was an online platform where users could buy and sell unworn luxury and limited-edition sneakers. Sneaker resale prices often fluctuated over time based on supply and demand, creating a robust... View Details

2023
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

Using confidential supervisory risk ratings, we document that banks increase risk after they go public compared to a control group of banks that filed to go public but withdrew their filings for plausibly exogenous reasons. The increase in risk increases short-term... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Banks and Banking; Going Public; Performance; Stocks

February 1985 (Revised August 1994)
Case

MMP: Money Market Preferred Stock

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2022
Article

Which Corporate ESG News Does the Market React To?

By: George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon

Using a dataset that classifies firm-level ESG news as positive and negative, we examine how stock prices react to different types of ESG news. We analyze 111,020 firm-day observations for 3,126 companies and find that prices react only to issues identified as... View Details

Keywords: ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Ratings; Social Capital; Environment; Sustainability; CSR; Stock Price; Stock Market Expectations; Materiality; Market Reaction; Environmental Sustainability; Governance; Social Issues; Performance; News

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2020
Working Paper

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott

We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

February 2015
Article

Corporate Investment and Stock Market Listing: A Puzzle?

By: John Asker, Joan Farre-Mensa and Alexander Ljungqvist

We investigate whether short-termism distorts the investment decisions of stock market listed firms. To do so, we compare the investment behavior of observably similar public and private firms using a new data source on private U.S. firms, assuming for identification... View Details

Keywords: Private Ownership; Public Ownership; Corporate Finance

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August 2005 (Revised April 2014)
Teaching Note

Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns

By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen

What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details

Research Summary

Corporate Investment and Stock Market Listing: A Puzzle?

In joint work with John Asker and Alexander Ljungqvist, we investigate whether short-termism distorts the investment decisions of stock market listed firms. To do so, we compare the investment behavior of observably similar public and private firms using a new... View Details

July 1979
Article

Spectral Analysis of Stock Market Prices

By: Marc L Bertoneche

Keywords: Stocks; Markets; Price

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June 2021 (Revised March 2022)
Teaching Note

StockX: The Stock Market of Things

By: Chiara Farronato

Teaching Note for HBS Case Nos. 620-062 and 621-107. View Details

December 2021
Article

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon

A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details

Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return

Article

Liquidity Provision and Stock Return Predictability

By: Mark Seasholes and Terrence Hendershott

This paper examines the trading behavior of two groups of liquidity providers (specialists and competing market makers) using a six-year panel of NYSE data. Trades of each group are negatively correlated with contemporaneous price changes. To test for return... View Details

Keywords: Liquidity; Market Makers; Market Efficiency; Inventory; Liquidity Provision; Market Design; Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Investment Return

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August 2001
Technical Note

Technical Note on Expectations

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

Reviews the mathematics of expectations embedded in a company's current stock price and the related (whole) enterprise value. Begins by showing how the current stock price can be compounded forward to arrive at an expectation one or more years in the future. Describes... View Details

Keywords: Performance Expectations; Price; Stocks

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