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      Stock Market ExpectationsRemove Stock Market Expectations →

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      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns

      By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim
      Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand... View Details
      Keywords: Technology; Generative Ai; Large Language Models; Climate Finance; Climate Change; Innovation and Invention; Environmental Sustainability; AI and Machine Learning; Investment; Financial Markets
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      Lu, Shirley, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu, and George Serafeim. "Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-024, November 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Catalysts for Climate Solutions: Corporate Responses to Venture Capital Financing of Climate-tech Startups

      By: Shirley Lu, George Serafeim and Simon Xu
      We study whether incumbent firms increase their product focus on climate solutions in response to venture capital (VC) financing of climate-tech startups. Using large language models to measure a firm's focus on climate solutions, we find that incumbents in similar... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Finance; Climate Change; Technological Innovation; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Private Equity; Environmental Sustainability; Business Startups
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      Lu, Shirley, George Serafeim, and Simon Xu. "Catalysts for Climate Solutions: Corporate Responses to Venture Capital Financing of Climate-tech Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-025, November 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Categorical Processing in a Complex World

      By: Marco Sammon, Thomas Graeber and Christopher Roth
      In real-world news environments, quantitative information is rarely presented in isolation; it is characterized through qualitative comparisons with various reference levels. Company earnings, for example, are commonly compared to analyst forecasts, previous earnings,... View Details
      Keywords: Announcements; Cognition and Thinking; Communication Strategy
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      Sammon, Marco, Thomas Graeber, and Christopher Roth. "Categorical Processing in a Complex World." Working Paper, November 2024.
      • November 2024
      • Article

      Perceptions About Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 4 (November 2024): 2227–2278.
      • October 2024
      • Case

      Tonik

      By: Andy Wu, Maliha Malek Quadir and Aticus Peterson
      This case study examines Tonik, the first digital bank in the Philippines, as it navigates the challenges of scaling its lending operations and achieving profitability in an evolving fintech landscape. It explores Tonik's journey from its launch in 2018 to early 2024,... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Financing and Loans; Profit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Growth and Development Strategy; Emerging Markets; Entrepreneurship; Product; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Philippines
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      Wu, Andy, Maliha Malek Quadir, and Aticus Peterson. "Tonik." Harvard Business School Case 725-404, October 2024.
      • October 2024 (Revised December 2024)
      • Case

      Kering Eyewear

      By: Rohit Deshpandé, Dante Roscini and Elena Corsi
      In June 2024, Roberto Vedovotto, CEO of Kering Eyewear, prepared to discuss the future of the recently acquired brands LINDBERG, a Danish optical eyewear brand, and Maui Jim, an American sunglasses brand. Vedovotto founded Kering Eyewear in 2014, convincing... View Details
      Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Marketing; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business or Company Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Luxury; Fashion Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Italy; Europe; China
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      Deshpandé, Rohit, Dante Roscini, and Elena Corsi. "Kering Eyewear." Harvard Business School Case 525-027, October 2024. (Revised December 2024.)
      • October 2024
      • Article

      Canary Categories

      By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
      Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
      Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
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      Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.
      • September 2024
      • Supplement

      Allbirds: Decarbonizing Fashion (B)

      By: Michael W. Toffel, Kenneth P. Pucker and Stacy Straaberg
      The Allbirds: Decarbonizing Fashion (B) case encourages students to assess Allbirds’ product development and go-to-market strategies now that Allbirds is a publicly listed company. The (B) case provides a 2024 update on Allbirds including its initial public offering,... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Initial Public Offering; Global Strategy; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Innovation Strategy; Knowledge Sharing; Distribution; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Going Public; Performance; Diversification; Stocks; Transformation; Fashion Industry; United States; San Francisco; California; Europe; Asia; New Zealand
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      Toffel, Michael W., Kenneth P. Pucker, and Stacy Straaberg. "Allbirds: Decarbonizing Fashion (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 625-004, September 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Finance Without Exotic Risk

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer
      We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Return; Financial Markets; Behavioral Finance; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, and Andrei Shleifer. "Finance Without Exotic Risk." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33004, September 2024.
      • August 2024 (Revised October 2024)
      • Case

      Discerene Group: Long-Term Public-Markets Investing

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Brent Schwarz
      This case discusses active investing based on fundamental valuations and price distortions created by market events, and whether contractual terms between investment managers and their investors can help align incentives between long-term investors and active managers.... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Strategy; Investment Funds; Valuation; Financial Markets; Financial Services Industry; Connecticut
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Brent Schwarz. "Discerene Group: Long-Term Public-Markets Investing." Harvard Business School Case 225-023, August 2024. (Revised October 2024.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Primary Capital Market Transactions and Index Funds

      By: Marco Sammon and Chris Murray
      We document the effects of mechanical buying by CRSP-index-tracking funds on post-IPO returns and IPO deal structure. Leveraging a difference-in-differences-style design built on a 2017 CRSP rule change, we find that expected index fund demand leads fast track IPOs to... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Initial Public Offering; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Financial Markets
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      Sammon, Marco, and Chris Murray. "Primary Capital Market Transactions and Index Funds." Working Paper, August 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Who Clears the Market When Passive Investors Trade?

      By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
      We find that firms are the primary sellers of shares when index funds are net buyers, providing shares at a nearly one-for-one rate. Rather than provide liquidity, most demand-side institutions trade in the same direction as index funds, especially over long horizons.... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Institutional Investing; Price; Investment Portfolio; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments
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      Sammon, Marco, and John J. Shim. "Who Clears the Market When Passive Investors Trade?" Working Paper, August 2024.
      • July 2024
      • Case

      Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO

      By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc
      In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details
      Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Interpersonal Communication; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Entrepreneurship; Fairness; Capital Markets; Private Equity; Investment Banking; Stock Options; Financial Markets; Initial Public Offering; Institutional Investing; Price Bubble; Digital Platforms; Digital Transformation; Internet and the Web; Leadership; Growth and Development Strategy; Managerial Roles; Agreements and Arrangements; Going Public; Ownership Stake; Performance Expectations; Work-Life Balance; Strategic Planning; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Rank and Position; Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities; Happiness; Reputation; Status and Position; Well-being; Information Technology Industry; Retail Industry; Canada
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      Satchu, Reza, Tom Quinn, and Andrew Kosc. "Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO." Harvard Business School Case 825-037, July 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Golden Revolving Door

      By: Ling Cen, Lauren Cohen, Jing Wu and Fan Zhang
      Using both the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018 and the most recent Russia-Ukraine war and associated trade tensions, we show a counterintuitive pattern in global trade. Namely, while the average firm trading with these nations significantly decreases their... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Business and Government Relations; International Relations
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      Cen, Ling, Lauren Cohen, Jing Wu, and Fan Zhang. "The Golden Revolving Door." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32621, June 2024.
      • July 2024
      • Article

      The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is

      By: Alex Chinco and Marco Sammon
      Each time a stock gets added to or dropped from a benchmark index, we ask: “How much money would have to be tracking that index to explain the huge spike in rebalancing volume we observe on reconstitution day?” While index funds held 16% of the US stock market in 2021,... View Details
      Keywords: Indexing; Passive Investing; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Russell Reconstitution Day; Trading Volume; Information-based Asset Pricing; Investment Funds; Asset Pricing
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      Chinco, Alex, and Marco Sammon. "The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is." Journal of Financial Economics 157 (July 2024).
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms

      By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
      Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Welfare; Mathematical Methods; Market Design; Cost vs Benefits
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      Akbarpour, Mohammad, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms." Journal of Political Economy 132, no. 6 (June 2024): 1831–1875. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)
      • May 2024
      • Case

      Naked Wines: The Profit vs. Growth Decision

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Edward A. Meyer
      Nick Devlin faced a difficult strategic decision in October 2022. As the CEO of a UK-based subscription business connecting wine drinkers in the US, UK, and Australia with winemakers from around the world (which one journalist called the “Netflix of Wine”), he had to... View Details
      Keywords: Profit Vs. Growth; Platform Business; Economies Of Scale; Subscription Business; Wine; Scaling; Racing; Value Creation; Network Effects; Business Startups; Small Business; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Growth Management; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Expansion; Profit; E-commerce; Growth and Development Strategy; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Australia; United Kingdom
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Edward A. Meyer. "Naked Wines: The Profit vs. Growth Decision." Harvard Business School Case 724-462, May 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?

      By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Philipp Chvanov
      Private Equity (“PE”) received a 10-fold increase in capital flows since the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”) Investors sought higher nominal returns relative to those they could obtain in the public capital markets. This paper questions the fundamental assumptions... View Details
      Keywords: Private Equity; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets
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      Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Philipp Chvanov. "Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-066, January 2024.
      • April 2024 (Revised July 2024)
      • Case

      Market Dynamics and Moral Dilemmas: Novo Nordisk’s Weight-Loss Drugs

      By: Joseph L. Badaracco, Tom Quinn and John Schultz
      Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk was owned by a charitable foundation, and since its founding in the 1920s had focused on producing insulin to treat diabetes. In 2017, however, it released Ozempic, a diabetes treatment with the revolutionary side effect of... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Judgments; Values and Beliefs; Global Strategy; Health Care and Treatment; Patents; Growth and Development Strategy; Growth Management; Product Positioning; Supply and Industry; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Opportunities; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; Pharmaceutical Industry; Health Industry; Denmark; United States; Europe; China; India; Middle East; North Africa
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      Badaracco, Joseph L., Tom Quinn, and John Schultz. "Market Dynamics and Moral Dilemmas: Novo Nordisk’s Weight-Loss Drugs." Harvard Business School Case 324-114, April 2024. (Revised July 2024.)
      • March 2024 (Revised July 2024)
      • Case

      AMC: The Zero Revenue Case

      By: C. Fritz Foley and Donal O'Cofaigh
      The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic put theatre company AMC’s already perilous financial situation under even further strain. The company’s high levels of debt resulted in a monthly cash-burn which left it facing an imminent Chapter-11 filing in the absence of... View Details
      Keywords: Ethics; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Public Equity; Stock Shares; Health Pandemics; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Foley, C. Fritz, and Donal O'Cofaigh. "AMC: The Zero Revenue Case." Harvard Business School Case 224-069, March 2024. (Revised July 2024.)
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