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    • All HBS Web  (754)
      • Faculty Publications  (99)

      Risk-centric Business CyclesRemove Risk-centric Business Cycles →

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      • August 2021
      • Supplement

      Coats: Supply Chain Challenges: Spreadsheet Supplement

      By: Willy C. Shih
      Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chain; Inventory; Supply Chain Management; Operations; Growth and Development Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Consolidation; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia
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      Shih, Willy C. "Coats: Supply Chain Challenges: Spreadsheet Supplement." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 622-702, August 2021.
      • May 2021 (Revised July 2021)
      • Case

      Coats: Supply Chain Challenges

      By: Willy C. Shih and Adina Wong
      Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chains; Digital; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia
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      Shih, Willy C., and Adina Wong. "Coats: Supply Chain Challenges." Harvard Business School Case 621-115, May 2021. (Revised July 2021.)
      • March 2021 (Revised August 2022)
      • Case

      Seeding and Selling Asana

      By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Susie Ma and Amram Migdal
      In December 2019, Oliver Jay, Asana’s Chief Revenue Officer (CRO), was reconsidering his go-to-market (GTM) strategy. Asana was cloud-based work management software that enabled users to break up projects into discrete tasks that could be assigned, scheduled, and... View Details
      Keywords: SaaS; Customer Journey; Business Model; Business Organization; Change Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Growth Management; Marketing Channels; Marketing Strategy; Product Marketing; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Digital Platforms; Internet and the Web; Technology Industry; United States
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      Rayport, Jeffrey F., Susie Ma, and Amram Migdal. "Seeding and Selling Asana." Harvard Business School Case 821-054, March 2021. (Revised August 2022.)
      • January 2021
      • Case

      Anodot: Autonomous Business Monitoring

      By: Antonio Moreno and Danielle Golan
      Autonomous business monitoring platform Anodot leveraged machine learning to provide real-time alerts regarding business anomalies. Anodot’s solution was used in various industries in order to primarily monitor business health, such as revenue and payments, product... View Details
      Keywords: Digital Platforms; Internet and the Web; Knowledge Sharing; Information Management; Sales; Value Creation; Product Positioning; Israel
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      Moreno, Antonio, and Danielle Golan. "Anodot: Autonomous Business Monitoring." Harvard Business School Case 621-084, January 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Real Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
      We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details
      Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

      By: Shai Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu
      Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that job seekers shifted their searches toward more established firms and away from early-stage startups, even... View Details
      Keywords: Startup Labor Market; Flight To Safety; COVID-19; Recession; Business Startups; Human Capital; Business Cycles; Health Pandemics
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      Bernstein, Shai, Richard Townsend, and Ting Xu. "Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-045, September 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Bankruptcy and the COVID-19 Crisis

      By: Jialan Wang, Jeyul Yang, Benjamin Iverson and Raymond Kluender
      We examine the impact of the COVID-19 economic crisis on business and consumer bankruptcies in the United States using real-time data on the universe of filings. Historically, bankruptcies have closely tracked the business cycle and contemporaneous unemployment rates.... View Details
      Keywords: Bankruptcy; Financial Distress; COVID-19; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Financial Crisis; Health Pandemics; United States
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      Wang, Jialan, Jeyul Yang, Benjamin Iverson, and Raymond Kluender. "Bankruptcy and the COVID-19 Crisis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-041, September 2020.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
      We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details
      Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
      • June 2020
      • Article

      U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

      By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
      Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,... View Details
      Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets
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      Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles." Journal of Monetary Economics 112 (June 2020): 57–76.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting

      By: Sabrina T. Howell, Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda and Richard Townsend
      Despite theoretical predictions to the contrary, corporate innovation is strongly pro-cyclical. In this paper, we compare innovation in the economy as a whole to that of firms backed by venture capital (VC), a source of capital associated with the most impactful young... View Details
      Keywords: Recessions; Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Patents; Business Cycles; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Howell, Sabrina T., Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda, and Richard Townsend. "How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-115, May 2020. (Revised July 2023.)
      • August 2019 (Revised February 2020)
      • Case

      New Hope Liuhe: Building an Integrated Agri-Food Business

      By: Forest L. Reinhardt, Shu Lin, Natalie Kindred and Nancy Hua Dai
      In October 2018, LIU Chang (Angela), chairman of Beijing-based New Hope Liuhe (NHL), was considering the strategy of the firm. With $9 billion in sales and a presence in nearly 20 countries, NHL was China’s largest animal feed producer and a major pork and poultry... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Food; Agribusiness; Expansion; Diversification; Growth Management; Consumer Behavior; Change Management; Entrepreneurship; Organizational Structure; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Government and Politics; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Transformation; Volatility; Business Cycles; Goods and Commodities; Supply Chain; Product; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; China; Asia
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      Reinhardt, Forest L., Shu Lin, Natalie Kindred, and Nancy Hua Dai. "New Hope Liuhe: Building an Integrated Agri-Food Business." Harvard Business School Case 720-009, August 2019. (Revised February 2020.)
      • October 2018 (Revised May 2019)
      • Teaching Note

      Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs

      By: Joseph Fuller, Shikhar Ghosh and Monica Baraldi
      Teaching Note for HBS No. 816-048. The case tells the story of a product manager within Intuit who develops an idea for a new product that spans two of the company's existing business units—professional tax software, sold to accountants, and the consumer focused... View Details
      Keywords: Business Units; Business or Company Management; Applications and Software; Accounting; Product Development; Financial Services Industry
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      Fuller, Joseph, Shikhar Ghosh, and Monica Baraldi. "Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 319-045, October 2018. (Revised May 2019.)
      • June 2018 (Revised August 2019)
      • Case

      Qualcomm Inc., 2019

      By: David B. Yoffie and Andrew S. Choi
      This case is set in mid-2019, when Qualcomm was struggling with unwanted take-over battles, fights with Apple and the Chinese government, and internal dissension on the board of directors. Ten years earlier Qualcomm was hailed as a monopoly on CDMA technologies and... View Details
      Keywords: Technology Cycles; Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Intellectual Property; Information Technology; Standards; Business Model; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Telecommunications Industry; Semiconductor Industry
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      Yoffie, David B., and Andrew S. Choi. "Qualcomm Inc., 2019." Harvard Business School Case 718-514, June 2018. (Revised August 2019.)
      • May 2018 (Revised October 2018)
      • Case

      Argentina Power—Don't Cry for Me Argentina

      By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Sayiddah Fatima McCree
      In 2016, Bruce Wayne, Managing Director of Energy Finance Corporation (“EFC”), was refining the Investment/Credit Committee materials for the development of up to 10 power generating plants in Argentina. As a subsidiary of the much larger International Conglomerate... View Details
      Keywords: Cross Border; Energy Markets; Infrastructure Finance; Infrastructure Development; Business Subsidiaries; Business Cycles; Macroeconomics; Energy Generation; International Finance; Project Finance; Government and Politics; Demand and Consumers; Infrastructure; Utilities Industry; Energy Industry; Financial Services Industry; Argentina; Latin America
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      Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Sayiddah Fatima McCree. "Argentina Power—Don't Cry for Me Argentina." Harvard Business School Case 218-041, May 2018. (Revised October 2018.)
      • Article

      The Asymmetric Experience of Positive and Negative Economic Growth: Global Evidence Using Subjective Well-being Data

      By: Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, George Ward, Femke De Keulenaer, Bert Van Landeghem, Georgios Kavetsos and Michael I. Norton
      Are individuals more sensitive to losses than gains in terms of economic growth? We find that measures of subjective well-being are more than twice as sensitive to negative as compared to positive economic growth. We use Gallup World Poll data from over 150 countries,... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Business Cycles; Welfare; Perception; Global Range
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      De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel, George Ward, Femke De Keulenaer, Bert Van Landeghem, Georgios Kavetsos, and Michael I. Norton. "The Asymmetric Experience of Positive and Negative Economic Growth: Global Evidence Using Subjective Well-being Data." Review of Economics and Statistics 100, no. 2 (May 2018): 362–375.
      • March 2018
      • Article

      Making the Numbers? 'Short Termism' and the Puzzle of Only Occasional Disaster

      By: Hazhir Rahmandad, Rebecca Henderson and Nelson P. Repenning
      Much recent work in strategy and popular discussion suggests that an excessive focus on "managing the numbers"—delivering quarterly earnings at the expense of longer-term investments—makes it difficult for firms to make the investments necessary to build competitive... View Details
      Keywords: Capability; Short-termism; System Dynamics; Tipping Point; Business or Company Management; Earnings Management; Resource Allocation
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      Rahmandad, Hazhir, Rebecca Henderson, and Nelson P. Repenning. "Making the Numbers? 'Short Termism' and the Puzzle of Only Occasional Disaster." Management Science 64, no. 3 (March 2018): 1328–1347.
      • February 2018 (Revised June 2018)
      • Case

      Uruguay: Facing the 21st Century

      By: Sophus A. Reinert, Michael Chu and Carin-Isabel Knoop
      In the fall of 2017, self-made business leader Edgardo Novick pondered his campaign to be elected President of Uruguay, “the Switzerland of Latin America.” Inspired by populist revolts against the status quo observable worldwide, Novick hoped he could ride popular... View Details
      Keywords: Uruguay; Edgardo Novick; Business Cycles; Macroeconomics; Geographic Location; Government and Politics; Wealth and Poverty; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Globalization; Pulp and Paper Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Uruguay
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      Reinert, Sophus A., Michael Chu, and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "Uruguay: Facing the 21st Century." Harvard Business School Case 318-019, February 2018. (Revised June 2018.)
      • December 2017 (Revised January 2024)
      • Case

      Globalization Past, 1850–1914 (A)

      By: Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
      On the evening of 3 August 1914, British Foreign Secretary Lord Edward Grey contemplated whether to advise King and Parliament to declare war on Germany in the wake of the country’s invasion of Belgium or to stay out of what quickly was becoming a world war triggered... View Details
      Keywords: The World; The Rise And Fall Of Globalization; World War; Globalization; War; Economics; Trade; Business Cycles; Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Society; History; Values and Beliefs; Macroeconomics
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      Reinert, Sophus A., and Federica Gabrieli. "Globalization Past, 1850–1914 (A)." Harvard Business School Case 718-023, December 2017. (Revised January 2024.)
      • December 2017
      • Supplement

      Globalization Past, 1850–1914 (B)

      By: Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
      Supplements the (A) case. View Details
      Keywords: The Rise And Fall Of Globalization; World War; The World; Business Cycles; Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Macroeconomics; Trade; Values and Beliefs; Globalization; War
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      Reinert, Sophus A., and Federica Gabrieli. "Globalization Past, 1850–1914 (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 718-030, December 2017.
      • January 2017
      • Case

      SoulCycle

      By: David Collis, Eric Van den Steen and Ashley Hartman
      Co-founders Julie Rice and Elizabeth Cutler have grown SoulCycle from a business idea in 2006 to a major presence among urban boutique fitness studios in 2015. In March 2015, fitness company Equinox approaches them with an offer to buy them out. Evaluating the offer... View Details
      Keywords: SoulCycle; Flywheel; Spinning; Indoor Cycling; Boutique Fitness; Fitness; Health Clubs; Community Engagement; Strategy; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Expansion; Competitive Advantage; Competitive Strategy; Segmentation; Health Industry; Sports Industry
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      Collis, David, Eric Van den Steen, and Ashley Hartman. "SoulCycle." Harvard Business School Case 717-454, January 2017.
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