Publications

January 2023
Case

Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery

By: Regina Herzlinger and Brian Walker

What should a successful executive (HBS Baker Scholar) assess as her next move as the CEO of a firm with a promising and yet uncertain new drug? Amy Burroughs’ mandate to successfully commercialize Cleave Therapeutics’ drug for a cancer with no current successful... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Leadership; Health Testing and Trials; Research and Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Condition; Partners and Partnerships; Pharmaceutical Industry

2023
Working Paper

The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’

By: Jacqueline N. Lane

In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Research; Resource Allocation; Perception

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January–February 2023
Article

Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry

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January 2023
Article

Psychological Safety Comes of Age: Observed Themes in an Established Literature

By: Amy C. Edmondson and Derrick P. Bransby

Since its renaissance in the 1990s, psychological safety research has flourished—a boom motivated by recognition of the challenge of navigating uncertainty and change. Today, its theoretical and practical significance is amplified by the increasingly complex and... View Details

Keywords: Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Leadership; Working Conditions; Research; Performance; Learning; Organizational Culture

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December 2022
Technical Note

Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework

By: George Serafeim

The transition to a low carbon economy introduces many risks and opportunities for businesses. Risks emerge from regulatory actions, such as carbon taxes and cap and trade systems, technological innovation that develop alternatives for customers making existing... View Details

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Carbon Footprint; Risk Management; Competitive Dynamics; Business Analysis; Climate Change; Accounting; Finance; Valuation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Technological Innovation; Transition; Product Positioning; Renewable Energy; Analysis

October 26, 2022
Article

Climate Risk Is Growing. Is Your Company Prepared?

By: John D. Macomber

Most people don’t have a strategy for how to handle the worsening perils of flooding, wildfires and extreme heat. They should adopt a four-step process for protecting their property, whether it be a home or a business. First, they should prioritize how important... View Details

Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Change; Risk Management; Crisis Management; Insurance

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October 2022
Case

Sustainable Finance at Itau BBA

By: George Serafeim, Maria Loumioti and Benjamin Maletta

As of August 2022, the Itau BBA had structured dozens of sustainability linked bonds, which made future interest payments a function of the borrower meeting a target for a sustainability metric, and had solidified its reputation as a pioneer of sustainable finance in... View Details

Keywords: Sustainable Finance; Corporate Social Responsibility; Environmental Sustainability; Growth Strategy; Debt Contracting; Performance Metrics; Risk Assessment; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Financial Instruments; Risk Management; Debt Securities; Measurement and Metrics; Banking Industry; Pulp and Paper Industry; Latin America

2022
Working Paper

A Conceptualization of Sub-Living Wages: Liabilities, Leverage, and Risk

By: Drew Keller, Katie Panella and George Serafeim

Currently the accounting system records employee wages as an expense in the income statement. However, paying below living wages can expose an organization to reputational and operational risks. In this paper, we offer an alternative conceptualization of the issue of... View Details

Keywords: Accounting; Impact Accounting; Leverage; Wages; Compensation and Benefits; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Business and Government Relations; Social Issues; Human Capital

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March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
Case

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

March 2022
Supplement

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

February 2022 (Revised January 2024)
Supplement

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (C)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting—and... View Details

Keywords: Restructuring; Talent and Talent Management; Compensation and Benefits; Growth and Development Strategy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Performance Evaluation; Motivation and Incentives; Consulting Industry

February 2022 (Revised April 2022)
Case

BUA Group

By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal

BUA Group must decide between investments in cement, road building, power generation, or sugar. Private businesses are important to economic development in Africa. Students must assess the competitive nature of each of these industries, the magnitude of capital... View Details

Keywords: Investing; Transportation; Strategy; Project Finance; Agribusiness; Construction; Infrastructure; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Nigeria; Africa

December 2021
Case

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Assessing Risk in Carlos Ghosn's International Escape

By: Eugene F. Soltes, Grace Liu and Muneeb Ahmed

In 2018, automotive tycoon Carlos Ghosn was arrested in Japan on financial misreporting charges, followed later by charges of improper payments and misappropriation of funds. Over a year later, still awaiting trial, Ghosn organized his escape from house arrest in Tokyo... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Ethics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Law; Courts and Trials; Rights; Risk and Uncertainty; Auto Industry; Japan

May 2021 (Revised June 2021)
Supplement

'GEnron'? Markopolos versus General Electric (B)

By: Jonas Heese and David Lane

Supplement to the (A) case that offers an assessment of the August 2019 Markopolos report on General Electric. View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Communication; Energy; Financial Condition; Insurance; Performance; Planning; Business and Shareholder Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; Energy Industry

March 2021 (Revised January 2023)
Case

The Trouble with TCE

By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella and Galit Goldstein

Trichloroethylene, or TCE, was a chemical used by tens of thousands of businesses in the United States. It was an affordable tool for many. Yet, TCE had been associated with important health risks, including cancer and autoimmune disease. TCE potentially posed other... View Details

Keywords: Trichloroethylene; Toxicity; Lobbying; Chemicals; Health Disorders; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Ethics; Business and Government Relations; Chemical Industry; United States

February 2021
Supplement

HNA Group: Global Excellence with Chinese Characteristics (C)

By: William C. Kirby, Billy Chan and John P. McHugh

July 2017 was supposed to be a triumphant month for HNA Group. The latest Fortune Global 500 list showed the company had again skyrocketed in its ranking to no. 170, an improvement of over 200 positions from the year prior. Yet earlier that same July, the mysterious... View Details

Keywords: Conglomerate; Airline Industry; Coronavirus; Financial Risk; Debt; Bankruptcy; Global Strategy; Restructuring; Health Pandemics; Financial Markets; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financial Condition; Globalized Firms and Management; Business and Government Relations; Air Transportation Industry; Financial Services Industry; China

January 2021
Case

Cinépolis

By: Joshua D. Margolis and Fernanda Miguel

Two weeks after Cinepolis released a documentary film about corruption, a judge ordered its provisional suspension, claiming it had to be edited before it continued to be shown, against Mexican cinematography laws. Cinépolis, Latin America’s largest movie theater chain... View Details

Keywords: Movies; Entertainment; Corruption; Risk Assessment; Communication Strategy; Crime and Corruption; Decision Making; Film Entertainment; Ethics; Leadership; Risk Management; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; Mexico; Latin America; North and Central America

January 2021 (Revised May 2021)
Case

'GEnron'? Markopolos versus General Electric (A)

By: Jonas Heese and David Lane

In August 2019, Harry Markopolos—the forensic accountant known for uncovering Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme—alleged that General Electric had committed accounting fraud totaling $38 billion, coining the term “GEnron” for perceived similarities with the 2001 accounting... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Communication; Energy; Financial Condition; Insurance; Performance; Planning; Business and Shareholder Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; Energy Industry

Article

Resilience vs. Vulnerability: Psychological Safety and Reporting of Near Misses with Varying Proximity to Harm in Radiation Oncology

By: Palak Kundu, Olivia Jung, Amy C. Edmondson, Nzhde Agazaryan, John Hegde, Michael Steinberg and Ann Raldow

Background
Psychological safety, a shared belief that interpersonal risk taking is safe, is an important determinant of incident reporting. However, how psychological safety affects near-miss reporting is unclear, as near misses contain contrasting cues that... View Details

Keywords: Psychological Safety; Near-miss Reporting; Health Care and Treatment; Safety