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January 2025
Technical Note

AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix

By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart

This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details

Keywords: Reliability; Confusion Matrix; AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Performance

January 2025
Case

Untapped Global: Financing Africa's Missing Middle

By: Raymond Kluender and Emanuele Colonnelli

In November 2024, Jim Chu, founder and CEO of Untapped Global, faced mounting internal tensions over the company’s strategic direction. Untapped had developed a data-driven revenue-based financing (RBF) model to address the “missing middle” problem—the $5.2 trillion... View Details

January 2025
Article

Automatic Enrollment with a 12% Default Contribution Rate

By: John Beshears, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and James J. Choi

We study a retirement savings plan with a default contribution rate of 12% of income, which is much higher than previously studied defaults. Twenty-five percent of employees had not opted out of this default 12 months after hire; a literature review finds that the... View Details

Keywords: Retirement Savings; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; Automatic Enrollment; Retirement; Saving; Income; Decision Choices and Conditions

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December 2024
Article

Public Attitudes on Performance for Algorithmic and Human Decision-Makers

By: Kirk Bansak and Elisabeth Paulson

This study explores public preferences for algorithmic and human decision-makers (DMs) in high-stakes contexts, how these preferences are shaped by performance metrics, and whether public evaluations of performance differ depending on the type of DM. Leveraging a... View Details

Keywords: Public Opinion; Prejudice and Bias; Decision Making

November 2024
Article

Perceptions About Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction

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November 2024
Article

Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge

By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov

We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Product Positioning

2024
Article

Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Interest Rates; Bonds; Financial Markets

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Fall 2024
Article

The Problem of Good Conduct Among Financial Advisers

By: Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru

Households in the United States often rely on financial advisers for investment and savings decisions, yet there is a widespread perception that many advisers are dishonest. This distrust is not unwarranted: approximately one in fifteen advisers has a history of... View Details

Keywords: Personal Finance; Behavioral Finance; Trust; Financial Services Industry

October 2024
Case

Estímulo: Blended Finance in Brazil

By: Vikram S. Gandhi, James Barnett, Maxim Pike Harrell and Marina Osborn

In December 2022, Estímulo—a Brazilian impact investment fund supporting small businesses—found itself at a crossroads. The fund was established in 2020 to provide emergency relief through accessible credit and financial education. When low default rates from borrowers... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Financial Management; Financing and Loans; Investment; Social Enterprise; Business Model; Financial Services Industry; Brazil; South America; Latin America

October 2024
Article

Medicare Part D Protected-Class Policy Is Associated with Lower Drug Rebates

By: Pragya Kakani, Michael Anne Kyle, Amitabh Chandra and Luca Maini

Medicare Part D does not allow plans to exclude drugs in six protected classes from their formularies, which may limit plans’ ability to negotiate rebates and lead to higher spending. We estimated the association between protected-class status, US-level estimated... View Details

Keywords: Insurance; Health Care and Treatment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States

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October 2024
Article

Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship

By: Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher Stanton

We show theoretically that a critical determinant of the attractiveness of VC-backed entrepreneurship for high-earning potential founders is the expected time to develop a startup’s initial product. This is because founder-CEOs’ cash compensation increases... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Executive Compensation

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October 2024 (Revised May 2025)
Case

Southern California Industrial: Freezer Drive

By: Arthur I Segel, Dwight Angelini and W. Matt Kelly

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, a Boston based real estate private equity firm was seeking to make their very first West Coast investments in hopes of establishing their presence in the strategic region. An exciting property suddenly became available on the... View Details

Keywords: Real Estate Development; Acquisition; Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Expansion; Cost vs Benefits; Investment Return; Real Estate Industry

September 20, 2024
Article

It’s Time to Unbundle ESG

By: Aaron K. Chatterji and Michael W. Toffel

ESG is at an inflection point. It has come to represent a broad and inchoate aspiration for what business should be doing beyond maximizing shareholder value. With ESG advocates on the defensive, business leaders need a new roadmap to determine which factors to... View Details

Keywords: ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Ratings; ESG Reporting; ESG Disclosure; Sustainability; Climate; Climate Finance; Climate Risk; Social Accounting; Investment; Governance; Safety; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Services Industry

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2024
Working Paper

Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Perception; Government Administration

September 2024
Case

Eat App: Building and Monetizing an End-to-End Dining Experience Solution

By: Elie Ofek and Ahmed Dahawy

Founded in 2015 in Bahrain, Eat App was an up-and-coming player in the global restaurant management software business. In early 2024, having shifted to a product-led growth strategy, the company’s co-founders faced a host of decisions that could greatly impact their... View Details

Keywords: Price; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Marketing; Negotiation Deal; Internet and the Web; Value Creation; Profit; Revenue; Applications and Software; Product; Food and Beverage Industry; Technology Industry; Bahrain; United Arab Emirates; Abu Dhabi; Dubai

2025
Working Paper

Narrative AI and the Human-AI Oversight Paradox in Evaluating Early-Stage Innovations

By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh and Pei-Hsin Wang

Do AI-generated narrative explanations enhance human oversight or diminish it? We investigate this question through a field experiment with 228 evaluators screening 48 early-stage innovations under three conditions: human-only, black-box AI recommendations without... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Models; AI and Machine Learning; Innovation and Invention; Decision Making

2024
Working Paper

Smaller than We Thought? The Effect of Automatic Savings Policies

By: James J. Choi, David Laibson, Jordan Cammarota, Richard Lombardo and John Beshears

Medium- and long-run dynamics undermine the effect of automatic enrollment and default savings-rate auto-escalation on retirement savings. Our analysis of 401(k) plans incorporates the facts that employees frequently leave firms (often before matching contributions... View Details

Keywords: Personal Finance; Saving; Retirement; Behavioral Finance; Compensation and Benefits

July 2024
Article

Whether to Apply

By: Katherine B. Coffman, Manuela Collis and Leena Kulkarni

Labor market outcomes depend, in part, upon an individual’s willingness to put herself forward for different opportunities. We use a series of experiments to explore gender differences in willingness to apply for higher return, more challenging work. We find that, in... View Details

Keywords: Beliefs; Recruitment; Job Search; Gender; Attitudes

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June 2024
Case

Alignvest Student Housing: Keep Building or Time to Sell?

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Patrick Sanguineti

Sanjil Shah, Managing Partner of Alignvest Student Housing REIT (ASH), faces the most significant decision thus far in his career: is it the right time to sell the company? Together with his partner Reza Satchu, Shah had developed ASH into the largest student housing... View Details

Keywords: Exit Strategy; Real Estate; Founder; Equity Valuation; Decisions; Entrepreneurial Finance; Interest Rates; Health Pandemics; Housing; Partners and Partnerships; Expansion; Entrepreneurship; Business Exit or Shutdown; Canada

June 2024
Case

Building Innovation at VINCI

By: Dennis Campbell, Aluna Wang and Carlota Moniz

This case study explores how the VINCI Group, a French multinational operating in concessions, energy, and construction, bolstered awareness and adoption rates of new technologies within the organization. Through its separate innovation hub, Leonard, VINCI aimed to... View Details

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