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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (208)

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      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Auditing Predictive Models for Intersectional Biases

      By: Kate S. Boxer, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      Predictive models that satisfy group fairness criteria in aggregate for members of a protected class, but do not guarantee subgroup fairness, could produce biased predictions for individuals at the intersection of two or more protected classes. To address this risk, we... View Details
      Keywords: Predictive Models; Bias; AI and Machine Learning
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      Boxer, Kate S., Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Auditing Predictive Models for Intersectional Biases." Working Paper, June 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Teams in the Digital Workplace: Technology's Role for Communication, Collaboration, and Performance

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Paul Leonardi, Noshir Contractor and Leslie DeChurch
      This paper addresses the need for theoretical advancements in understanding team processes and the impact of technology on teams. Specifically, it examines the use of digital collaboration technologies by organizational teams and their effect on team communication and... View Details
      Keywords: Affordances; Groups and Teams; Communication Technology; Social Media; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Perception
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      Lane, Jacqueline N., Paul Leonardi, Noshir Contractor, and Leslie DeChurch. "Teams in the Digital Workplace: Technology's Role for Communication, Collaboration, and Performance." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-079, June 2023. (Accepted by Small Group Research. Revised July 2023.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
      We introduce a novel methodology for detecting inflation turning points that combines high-frequency, disaggregated price data with standard structural break techniques to provide policymakers with more precise and timely signals of inflation dynamics. The methodology... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta. "Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data." Working Paper, May 2025. (Preliminary draft.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities

      By: David S. Scharfstein and Sergey Chernenko
      We show that the use of algorithms to predict race has significant limitations in measuring and understanding the sources of racial disparities in finance, economics, and other contexts. First, we derive theoretically the direction and magnitude of measurement bias in... View Details
      Keywords: Racial Disparity; Paycheck Protection Program; Measurement Error; AI and Machine Learning; Race; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result
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      Scharfstein, David S., and Sergey Chernenko. "The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities." Working Paper, April 2023.
      • April 2023
      • Article

      The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences

      By: Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman and Uwe Sunde
      Incentivized choice experiments are a key approach to measuring preferences in economics but are also costly. Survey measures are a low-cost alternative but can suffer from additional forms of measurement error due to their hypothetical nature. This paper seeks to... View Details
      Keywords: Survey Validation; Experiment; Preference Measurement; Surveys; Economics; Behavior; Measurement and Metrics
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      Falk, Armin, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, David B. Huffman, and Uwe Sunde. "The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences." Management Science 69, no. 4 (April 2023): 1935–1950.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
      We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Kosuke Imai, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data." Working Paper, February 2023.
      • February 2023
      • Article

      Climate Solutions Investments

      By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
      An increasing number of companies are providing products and services that help reduce carbon emissions in the economy. We develop a methodology to identify those companies and create a sample of publicly listed climate solutions companies allowing us to study their... View Details
      Keywords: Decarbonization; Climate Finance; Climate Impact; Climate Risk; Environment; Sustainability; Carbon Emissions; Electric Vehicles; Energy; Renewables; Climate Change; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Emerging Markets; Investment Portfolio
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      Cheema-Fox, Alex, George Serafeim, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Climate Solutions Investments." Journal of Portfolio Management 49, no. 3 (February 2023): 72–96.
      • January–February 2023
      • Article

      Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan
      The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu, and Najat Khan. "Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen." INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics 53, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 70–84.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules

      By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
      The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a... View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Precision Medicine; Uplift Modeling; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 242–256.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns

      By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
      Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Finance; Vulnerabilities; Currencies; Foreign Exchange; Climate Change; Currency; Natural Disasters
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      Cheema-Fox, Alex, George Serafeim, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 78, no. 4 (2022): 37–58.
      • 2022
      • Article

      The Turn Toward Creative Work

      By: Spencer Harrison, Elizabeth D. Rouse, Colin M. Fisher and Teresa M. Amabile
      In this Academy of Management Collections essay, we curate a set of articles from the Academy of Management family of journals that showcase the evolution of creativity research within organizational scholarship. The articles reveal a shift from the study of... View Details
      Keywords: Creative Work; Creative Process; Creativity; Organizational Culture
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      Harrison, Spencer, Elizabeth D. Rouse, Colin M. Fisher, and Teresa M. Amabile. "The Turn Toward Creative Work." Academy of Management Collections 1, no. 1 (2022): 1–15.
      • July 2022
      • Case

      FIJI Water: Carbon Negative? (Abridged)

      By: Michael W. Toffel, George Serafeim, Francesca Gino, Stephanie Van Sice and Tom Quinn
      In the midst of increasing press scrutiny of the bottled water industry’s environmentally harmful practices, FIJI Water made a series of sustainability promises. The boldest of these was a pledge to go “carbon negative.” The company said that not only would they offset... View Details
      Keywords: Carbon Footprint; Carbon Offsetting; Environmental Accounting; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Pollution; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Misleading and Fraudulent Advertising; Non-Governmental Organizations; Brands and Branding; Food and Beverage Industry; Fiji; United States
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      Toffel, Michael W., George Serafeim, Francesca Gino, Stephanie Van Sice, and Tom Quinn. "FIJI Water: Carbon Negative? (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 623-004, July 2022.
      • Article

      Online Experimentation: Benefits, Operational and Methodological Challenges, and Scaling Guide

      By: Iavor Bojinov and Somit Gupta
      In the past decade, online controlled experimentation, or A/B testing, at scale has proved to be a significant driver of business innovation. The practice was first pioneered by the technology sector and, more recently, has been adopted by traditional companies... View Details
      Keywords: A/B Testing; Experimentation; Data-driven Culture; Product Development; Innovation and Invention; Digital Transformation
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      Bojinov, Iavor, and Somit Gupta. "Online Experimentation: Benefits, Operational and Methodological Challenges, and Scaling Guide." Harvard Data Science Review, no. 4.3 (Summer, 2022).
      • June 2022 (Revised August 2023)
      • Case

      Strategic Innovation at the United Nations: A Network of Ecosystems

      By: Frank Nagle, Elizabeth J. Altman and Amy Klopfenstein
      In 2021, Gina Lucarelli, leader of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Accelerator Labs, prepared for a meeting with UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner. The two planned to discuss the future of the Accelerator Labs, a network of social innovation labs located... View Details
      Keywords: Change; Disruption; Transformation; Change Management; Education; Learning; Environmental Management; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Geography; Geographic Scope; Global Range; Local Range; Geopolitical Units; Country; Human Resources; Recruitment; Retention; Selection and Staffing; Employees; Employee Relationship Management; Information Technology; Information Management; Innovation and Invention; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Disruptive Innovation; Innovation and Management; Innovation Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Knowledge; Knowledge Acquisition; Knowledge Dissemination; Knowledge Management; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Organizations; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Organizational Design; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Social Enterprise; Non-Governmental Organizations; Social Psychology; Social and Collaborative Networks; Society; Social Issues; Welfare; Strategy; Cooperation; Adaptation; Public Administration Industry; North and Central America
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      Nagle, Frank, Elizabeth J. Altman, and Amy Klopfenstein. "Strategic Innovation at the United Nations: A Network of Ecosystems." Harvard Business School Case 722-363, June 2022. (Revised August 2023.)
      • April–June 2022
      • Other Article

      Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'

      By: Edward McFowland III
      There has been a substantial discussion in various methodological and applied literatures around causal inference; especially in the use of machine learning and statistical models to understand heterogeneity in treatment effects and to make optimal decision... View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Treatment Effect Estimation; Treatment Assignment Policy; Human-in-the-loop; Decision Making; Fairness
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      McFowland III, Edward. "Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 1 (April–June 2022): 21–22.
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

      By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
      Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
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      Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Annals of Applied Statistics 16, no. 1 (March 2022): 414–435.
      • February 2022
      • Teaching Plan

      Community Solutions

      By: Brian Trelstad and Tom Quinn
      Teaching Plan for HBS Case No. 322-021. Community Solutions was an anti-homelessness nonprofit founded in 2011 after protagonist Rosanne Haggerty grew frustrated with the limited impact of traditional housing and outreach strategies. It set an ambitious goal, reached... View Details
      Keywords: Homelessness; Social Issues; Housing; Human Needs; Poverty; Welfare; Business and Community Relations; Analytics and Data Science; Business Strategy; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
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      Trelstad, Brian, and Tom Quinn. "Community Solutions." Harvard Business School Teaching Plan 322-060, February 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Improving Efficiency and Reducing Costs of MRI-Guided Prostate Brachytherapy Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing

      By: Nikhil G. Thaker, Rajat J. Kudchadker, James R. Incalcaterra, Tharakeswara K. Bathala, Robert S. Kaplan, Ankit Agarwal, Deborah A. Kuban, Benjamin D. Frank, Prajnan Das, Thomas W. Feeley and Steven J. Frank
      Integrated quality improvement (QI) and cost reduction strategies can help increase value in cancer care. We applied standard QI and TDABC methods to improve workflow efficiency and reduce costs for MRI-guided prostate brachytherapy. We constructed process maps,... View Details
      Keywords: Brachytherapy; Quality Improvement; Prostate; Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing; Cost Accounting; Health Care and Treatment; Performance Efficiency; Health Industry
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      Thaker, Nikhil G., Rajat J. Kudchadker, James R. Incalcaterra, Tharakeswara K. Bathala, Robert S. Kaplan, Ankit Agarwal, Deborah A. Kuban, Benjamin D. Frank, Prajnan Das, Thomas W. Feeley, and Steven J. Frank. "Improving Efficiency and Reducing Costs of MRI-Guided Prostate Brachytherapy Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing." Brachytherapy 21, no. 1 (2022): 49–54.
      • Article

      The Emergence of Mafia-like Business Systems in China

      By: Meg Rithmire and Hao Chen
      A large body of literature on state–business relations in China has examined the political role of capitalists and collusion between the state and the private sector. This paper contributes to that literature and understanding of the internal differentiation among... View Details
      Keywords: China's Political Economy; State-business Relations; Business Groups; Financial System; Business and Government Relations; Finance; Economic Systems; China
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      Rithmire, Meg, and Hao Chen. "The Emergence of Mafia-like Business Systems in China." China Quarterly 248 (December 2021): 1037–1058.
      • November 2021 (Revised January 2022)
      • Case

      Nicole M. Jones and The Hangar℠: Delta Air Lines' Global Innovation Center

      By: Linda A. Hill and Emily Tedards
      In 2016, Nicole M. Jones was hired to lead The Hangar, Delta Air Lines’ new innovation center in Atlanta, Georgia. Delta’s leadership had intended for The Hangar to catalyze a new approach to innovation at the company. After conducting three months of research on... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation Lab; Breakthrough Innovation; Biometric Technology; Innovation and Invention; Leadership; Innovation and Management; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Innovation Strategy; Technological Innovation; Georgia (state, US)
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      Hill, Linda A., and Emily Tedards. "Nicole M. Jones and The Hangar℠: Delta Air Lines' Global Innovation Center." Harvard Business School Case 422-042, November 2021. (Revised January 2022.)
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