Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(2,144)
- Faculty Publications (295)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models
By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang
We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns
By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim
Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand... View Details
- November 2024 (Revised December 2024)
- Case
Moonfare and the Democratization of Private Equity
By: Victoria Ivashina and Srimayi Mylavarapu
Founded in 2016, Moonfare headquartered in Europe, was a pioneer in the “democratization” of private equity investments. Historically, private equity was accessible only to institutional investors like pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and large family... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Catalysts for Climate Solutions: Corporate Responses to Venture Capital Financing of Climate-tech Startups
By: Shirley Lu, George Serafeim and Simon Xu
We study whether incumbent firms increase their product focus on climate solutions in response to venture capital (VC) financing of climate-tech startups. Using large language models to measure a firm's focus on climate solutions, we find that incumbents in similar... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs
By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
- September–October 2024
- Article
The Crowdless Future? Generative AI and Creative Problem-Solving
The rapid advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) open up attractive opportunities for creative problem-solving through human-guided AI partnerships. To explore this potential, we initiated a crowdsourcing challenge focused on sustainable, circular economy... View Details
- September 2024
- Case
Xendit: Hiring for Growth
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Steve Castano, Quoc Anh Nguyen and Claire Wu
In 2019, Xendit, a growth-stage Southeast Asia (SEA) fintech venture based in Jakarta, was looking to hire a Head of Sales and Head of Product to lead its next phase of growth. Founded by Moses Lo and Tessa Wijaya, Xendit provided payment infrastructure, modeling... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain
By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano
We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details
- September 2024
- Article
Regulating Transformative Technologies
By: Daron Acemoglu and Todd A. Lensman
Transformative technologies like generative AI promise to accelerate productivity growth across many sectors, but they also present new risks from potential misuse. We develop a multisector technology adoption model to study the optimal regulation of transformative... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Narrative AI and the Human-AI Oversight Paradox in Evaluating Early-Stage Innovations
By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh and Pei-Hsin Wang
Do AI-generated narrative explanations enhance human oversight or diminish it? We investigate this question through a field experiment with 228 evaluators screening 48 early-stage innovations under three conditions: human-only, black-box AI recommendations without... View Details
- August 2024
- Article
How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?
By: Leemore S. Dafny, Kate Ho and Edward Kong
Drug copayment coupons to reduce patient cost-sharing have become nearly ubiquitous for high-priced brand-name prescription drugs. Medicare bans such coupons on the grounds that they are kickbacks that induce utilization, but they are commonly used by... View Details
- July 2024
- Article
Chatbots and Mental Health: Insights into the Safety of Generative AI
By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp and Stefano Puntoni
Chatbots are now able to engage in sophisticated conversations with consumers. Due to the ‘black box’ nature of the algorithms, it is impossible to predict in advance how these conversations will unfold. Behavioral research provides little insight into potential safety... View Details
- July 2024
- Article
How Artificial Intelligence Constrains Human Experience
By: A. Valenzuela, S. Puntoni, D. Hoffman, N. Castelo, J. De Freitas, B. Dietvorst, C. Hildebrand, Y.E. Huh, R. Meyer, M. Sweeney, S. Talaifar, G. Tomaino and K. Wertenbroch
Many consumption decisions and experiences are digitally mediated. As a consequence, consumer behavior is increasingly the joint product of human psychology and ubiquitous algorithms (Braun et al. 2024; cf. Melumad et al. 2020). The coming of age of Large Language... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations
By: Raviv Murciano-Goroff, Ran Zhuo and Shane Greenstein
How prevalent are severe software vulnerabilities, how fast do software users respond to the availability of secure versions, and what determines the variance in the installation distribution? Using the largest dataset ever assembled on user updates, tracking server... View Details
- July–August 2024
- Article
The Middle Path to Innovation
By: Regina E. Herzlinger, Duke Rohlen, Ben Creo and Will Kynes
Too many companies are failing to innovate. One reason, say the authors, is the polarized approach companies take to innovation. At one end of the spectrum, corporate R&D efforts tend to focus on product refreshes and incremental line upgrades that generate modest... View Details
- June 2024
- Supplement
Heritage Holding (A)
By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff
Pre-Abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.
Abstract: The summer of 2022 marked a crucial period for Heritage Holding co-founders, Alex de Pfyffer and Ross Porter. The... View Details
Abstract: The summer of 2022 marked a crucial period for Heritage Holding co-founders, Alex de Pfyffer and Ross Porter. The... View Details
- June 2024
- Supplement
Heritage Holding (B)
By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff
Pre-Abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.
Abstract: The summer of 2022 marked a crucial period for Heritage Holding co-founders, Alex de Pfyffer and Ross Porter. The... View Details
Abstract: The summer of 2022 marked a crucial period for Heritage Holding co-founders, Alex de Pfyffer and Ross Porter. The... View Details
- June 2024 (Revised September 2024)
- Case
Driving Scale with Otto
By: Rebecca Karp, David Allen and Annelena Lobb
This case asks how startup founders make scaling decisions in light of their priorities for their business and for themselves. Otto was a technology company that applied artificial intelligence technology to sales. It deployed natural language processing to find sales... View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Natural Language Processing; B2B; B2B Innovation; Scaling; Scaling Tech Ventures; Business Startups; AI and Machine Learning; Finance; Sales; Business Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Entrepreneurship; Information Technology Industry; United States; Cambridge; New York (city, NY); Spain
- June 2024
- Case
Building Innovation at VINCI
By: Dennis Campbell, Aluna Wang and Carlota Moniz
This case study explores how the VINCI Group, a French multinational operating in concessions, energy, and construction, bolstered awareness and adoption rates of new technologies within the organization. Through its separate innovation hub, Leonard, VINCI aimed to... View Details
Keywords: Business Model; Business Organization; Decisions; Business Earnings; Business Strategy; Competition; Energy; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Values and Beliefs; Global Range; Global Strategy; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Corporate Accountability; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Disruptive Innovation; Innovation and Management; Innovation Strategy; Technological Innovation; Knowledge Sharing; Organizational Culture; Technology Adoption; Innovation Leadership; Organizational Structure; Construction Industry; Energy Industry; Technology Industry; France; Europe