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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (319)

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    • All HBS Web  (1,657)
      • Faculty Publications  (319)

      Dynamic Treatment EffectsRemove Dynamic Treatment Effects →

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      • July–August 2024
      • Article

      Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details
      Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals." Marketing Science 43, no. 4 (July–August 2024): 863–884.
      • July 2024
      • Article

      Mass General Brigham’s Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement System: A Decade of Learnings

      By: Jason B. Liu, Robert S. Kaplan, David W. Bates, Mario O. Edelen, Rachel C. Sisodia and Andrea L. Pusic
      This article describes the strategies that leaders at the Mass General Brigham (MGB) health system have used in launching a standardized patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) collection program in 2012, a major step in the value-based transformation of health care.... View Details
      Keywords: Patient-reported Outcomes; Value Based Health Care; Health Care and Treatment; Transformation; Outcome or Result; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Performance Improvement; Health Industry
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      Liu, Jason B., Robert S. Kaplan, David W. Bates, Mario O. Edelen, Rachel C. Sisodia, and Andrea L. Pusic. "Mass General Brigham’s Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement System: A Decade of Learnings." NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery 5, no. 7 (July 2024).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization

      By: Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
      This paper introduces Incrementality Representation Learning (IRL), a novel multitask representation learning framework that predicts heterogeneous causal effects of marketing interventions. By leveraging past experiments, IRL efficiently designs and targets... View Details
      Keywords: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Multi-task Learning; Representation Learning; Personalization; Promotion; Deep Learning; Field Experiments; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customization and Personalization
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, Eva Ascarza, and Ayelet Israeli. "Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-076, June 2024.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Evaluations Amid Measurement Error: Determining the Optimal Timing for Workplace Interventions

      By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Iavor I. Bojinov and Fiammetta Menchetti
      Researchers have embraced factorial experiments to simultaneously evaluate multiple treatments, each with different levels. Typically, in large-scale factorial experiments, the primary objective is identifying the treatment with the largest causal effect, especially... View Details
      Keywords: Factorial Designs; Fisher Randomizations; Rank Estimators; Employer Interventions; Causal Inference; Mathematical Methods; Performance Improvement
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      DosSantos DiSorbo, Matthew, Iavor I. Bojinov, and Fiammetta Menchetti. "Evaluations Amid Measurement Error: Determining the Optimal Timing for Workplace Interventions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-075, June 2024. (Revised May 2025.)
      • June 2024
      • Article

      The Monitoring Role of Social Media

      By: Jonas Heese and Joseph Pacelli
      In this study, we examine whether social media activity can reduce corporate misconduct. We use the staggered introduction of 3G mobile broadband access across the United States to identify exogenous increases in social media activity and test whether access to 3G... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Misconduct; Twitter; Corporate Accountability; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Social and Collaborative Networks
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      Heese, Jonas, and Joseph Pacelli. "The Monitoring Role of Social Media." Review of Accounting Studies 29, no. 2 (June 2024): 1666–1706.
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices

      By: Jason Shafrin, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington and Richard Willke
      This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories—such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness’s... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Valuation; Cost vs Benefits; Society
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      Shafrin, Jason, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington, and Richard Willke. "Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices." Forum of Health Economics and Policy 27, no. 1 (June 2024): 29–116.
      • April 29, 2024
      • Editorial

      Stemming the Ripple Effect of Untreated Mental Illness: A Prescription for Change: Reimagining U.S. Healthcare

      By: Lidia Moura and Susanna Gallani
      Keywords: Well-being; Health Care and Treatment; Health Disorders; Change
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      Moura, Lidia, and Susanna Gallani. "Stemming the Ripple Effect of Untreated Mental Illness: A Prescription for Change: Reimagining U.S. Healthcare." Psychology Today (website) (April 29, 2024).
      • April 2024 (Revised July 2024)
      • Case

      Market Dynamics and Moral Dilemmas: Novo Nordisk’s Weight-Loss Drugs

      By: Joseph L. Badaracco, Tom Quinn and John Schultz
      Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk was owned by a charitable foundation, and since its founding in the 1920s had focused on producing insulin to treat diabetes. In 2017, however, it released Ozempic, a diabetes treatment with the revolutionary side effect of... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Judgments; Values and Beliefs; Global Strategy; Health Care and Treatment; Patents; Growth and Development Strategy; Growth Management; Product Positioning; Supply and Industry; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Opportunities; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; Pharmaceutical Industry; Health Industry; Denmark; United States; Europe; China; India; Middle East; North Africa
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      Badaracco, Joseph L., Tom Quinn, and John Schultz. "Market Dynamics and Moral Dilemmas: Novo Nordisk’s Weight-Loss Drugs." Harvard Business School Case 324-114, April 2024. (Revised July 2024.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits

      By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
      Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods
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      Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits

      By: Dae Woong Ham, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon and Martin Tingley
      Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire to use the available... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
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      Ham, Dae Woong, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon, and Martin Tingley. "Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-056, March 2024.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War

      By: Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen and Sung-Ju Wu
      This paper introduces a new measure of tariff evasion through rerouting and applies it to the 2018 U.S.–China trade war, focusing on Vietnam as a transit country. We use transaction-level trade data and define rerouting as the flow of a granular eight-digit Harmonized... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; International Relations; Logistics; China; Viet Nam; United States
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      Iyoha, Ebehi, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen, and Sung-Ju Wu. "Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-072, May 2024. (Revised March 2025.)
      • March 2024
      • Article

      Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act

      By: Matthew Vogel, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra and Rena M. Conti
      The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate lower prices for some medicines with high Medicare spending. Using historical data from public and proprietary sources to apply the IRA's negotiation criteria retrospectively, we identify all drugs that... View Details
      Keywords: Policy; Government Legislation; Health Care and Treatment; Negotiation; Price; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Vogel, Matthew, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra, and Rena M. Conti. "Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act." Nature Biotechnology 42, no. 3 (March 2024): 406–412.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence

      By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
      Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Graeber, Thomas, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg, and Charles Sprenger. "'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-046, January 2024.
      • January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
      • Course Overview Note

      Managing Customers for Growth: Course Overview for Students

      By: Eva Ascarza
      Managing Customers for Growth (MCG) is a 14-session elective course for second-year MBA students at Harvard Business School. It is designed for business professionals engaged in roles centered on customer-driven growth activities. The course explores the dynamics of... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Relationship Management; Decision Making; Analytics and Data Science; Growth Management; Telecommunications Industry; Technology Industry; Financial Services Industry; Education Industry; Travel Industry
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      Ascarza, Eva. "Managing Customers for Growth: Course Overview for Students." Harvard Business School Course Overview Note 524-032, January 2024. (Revised February 2024.)
      • January 2024
      • Article

      Population Interference in Panel Experiments

      By: Kevin Wu Han, Guillaume Basse and Iavor Bojinov
      The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit’s outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in... View Details
      Keywords: Outcome or Result; Research; Situation or Environment
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      Han, Kevin Wu, Guillaume Basse, and Iavor Bojinov. "Population Interference in Panel Experiments." Journal of Econometrics 238, no. 1 (January 2024).
      • January–February 2024
      • Article

      Shared Service Delivery Can Increase Client Engagement: A Study of Shared Medical Appointments

      By: Ryan W. Buell, Kamalini Ramdas, Nazlı Sönmez, Kavitha Srinivasan and Rengaraj Venkatesh
      Problem Definition: Clients and service providers alike often consider one-on-one service delivery to be ideal, assuming – perhaps unquestioningly – that devoting individualized attention best improves client outcomes. In contrast, in shared service delivery, clients... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Customer Satisfaction; Outcome or Result; Performance Improvement
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      Buell, Ryan W., Kamalini Ramdas, Nazlı Sönmez, Kavitha Srinivasan, and Rengaraj Venkatesh. "Shared Service Delivery Can Increase Client Engagement: A Study of Shared Medical Appointments." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 26, no. 1 (January–February 2024): 154–166.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Money, Time, and Grant Design

      By: Kyle Myers and Wei Yang Tham
      We conduct survey experiments to test how the design of scientific grants— the money and time awarded—can be used to manage researchers. On average, researchers are relatively unwilling to trade off money for time when choosing among grants. However, there is... View Details
      Keywords: Research; Power and Influence; Money
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      Myers, Kyle, and Wei Yang Tham. "Money, Time, and Grant Design." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-037, December 2023. (Revised June 2025.)
      • December 2023
      • Teaching Note

      Buurtzorg

      By: Ethan Bernstein and Tatiana Sandino
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 122-101. As co-founders of home nursing company Buurtzorg, Jos de Blok and Gonnie Kronenberg prized both self-management and organizational learning. Buurtzorg’s 10,000 nurses across 950 neighborhood nursing teams in the Netherlands were... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Employee Relationship Management; Knowledge Dissemination; Knowledge Management; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Groups and Teams; Learning; Health Industry; Netherlands
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      Bernstein, Ethan, and Tatiana Sandino. "Buurtzorg." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 124-059, December 2023.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
      Keywords: Targeted Intervention; Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation; Differential Privacy; Honest Estimation; Post-processing; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-034, December 2023. (Revised March 2025.)
      • 2023
      • Article

      Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy

      By: Yufan Li, Jialiang Mao and Iavor Bojinov
      Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases in a... View Details
      Keywords: Product Launch; Mathematical Methods; Product Development
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      Li, Yufan, Jialiang Mao, and Iavor Bojinov. "Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2023).
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