Dividend Discount Model - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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1998
Article

Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods

By: Malcolm Baker, E. S. Mayfield and John Parsons

This paper provides an introduction to alternative models of uncertain commodity prices. A model of commodity price movements is the engine around which any valuation methodology for commodity production projects is built, whether discounted cash flow (DCF) models or... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Goods and Commodities; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Production; Projects; Cash Flow

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Research Summary

Overview

Professor Ngwe develops structural models of supply and demand to probe deeply into the dynamics of shoppers and retailers, especially unobservable aspects of purchase behavior. He focuses on the adoption of outlet stores in the fashion industry, using transactional... View Details

Keywords: Outlet Stores; Price Discrimination; Retail; Discounts; Location; Industrial Organization; Structural Modeling; Fashion Industry; Retail Industry

October 2022
Article

A Structural Model of Organizational Buying for Business-to-Business Markets: Innovation Adoption with Share-of-Wallet Contracts

By: Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir

The paper develops the ﬁrst structural model of organizational buying to study innovation diﬀusion in a B2B market. Our model is particularly applicable for routinized exchange relationships, whereby centralized buyers periodically evaluate and choose contracts,... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Buying Behavior; Healthcare Marketing; B2B Markets; B2B Innovation; New Product Diffusion; New Product Adoption; Organizations; Acquisition; Behavior; Health Care and Treatment; Marketing; Innovation and Invention

2005
Article

Early Decisions: A Regulatory Framework

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian

We describe a regulatory framework that helps consumers who have difficulty sticking to their own long-run plans. Early Decision regulations help long-run preferences prevail by allowing consumers to partially commit to their long-run goals, making it harder for a... View Details

Keywords: Hyperbolic Discounting; Self-control; Commitment; Consumer Behavior; Taxation; Attitudes

2019
Working Paper

Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

Recurrent concerns over debt sustainability in emerging and developed nations have prompted renewed debate on the role of fiscal rules. Their optimality, however, remains unclear. We provide a quantitative analysis of fiscal rules in a standard model of sovereign debt... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Hyperbolic Discounting; Fiscal Rules; Sovereign Finance

Article

The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach

By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang

We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details

Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return

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September 2016
Article

History-based versus Uniform Pricing in Growing and Declining Markets

By: Oz Shy, Rune Stenbacka and David Hao Zhang

We analyze the Markov Perfect Equilibria of an infinite-horizon overlapping generations model with consumer lock-in to compare the performance of history-based and uniform pricing in growing and declining markets. Under history-based pricing, firms charge higher prices... View Details

Keywords: History-based Pricing; Introductory Discount; Uniform Pricing; Consumer Lock-in; High Switching Costs; Demand and Consumers; Competition; Price; Market Entry and Exit; Product Marketing

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August 2013
Article

The Timing of Pay

By: Christopher Parsons and E. Van Wesep

There exists large and persistent variation in not only how, but when employees are paid, a fact unexplained by existing theory. This paper develops a simple model of optimal pay timing for firms. When workers have self-control problems, they under-save... View Details

Keywords: Payday Lending; Hyperbolic Discounting; Self-control Problems; Pay Frequency; Payday Loan Legislation; Paycheck Frequency; Time Inconsistency; Wages; Behavior; Employee Relationship Management

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December 2017 (Revised January 2022)
Supplement

Bega Cheese: Bidding to Bring Vegemite Back Home

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Lauren G. Pickle

In January 2017, the leadership team of Bega Cheese—the Australian dairy company—was considering a bid for Mondelēz International’s Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) grocery business which included several leading consumer brands including Vegemite, the iconic Australian... View Details

December 2017 (Revised February 2021)
Case

Bega Cheese: Bidding to Bring Vegemite Back Home

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Lauren G. Pickle

In January 2017, the leadership team of Bega Cheese—the Australian dairy company—was considering a bid for Mondelēz International’s Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) grocery business, which included several leading consumer brands such as Vegemite, the iconic Australian... View Details

December 2017 (Revised January 2018)
Teaching Note

Bega Cheese: Bidding to Bring Vegemite Back Home

By: Benjamin C. Esty, Lauren G. Pickle and Greg Saldutte

In January 2017, the leadership team of Bega Cheese—the Australian dairy company—was considering a bid for Mondelēz International’s Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) grocery business which included several leading consumer brands such as Vegemite, the iconic Australian... View Details

July 1987 (Revised October 2009)
Background Note

A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method"

By: William A. Sahlman and Daniel R Scherlis

Describes a method for valuing high-risk, long-term investments such as those confronting venture capitalists. The method entails forecasting a future value (e.g., five years from the present) and discounting that terminal value back to the present by applying a high... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Risk Management; Valuation

December 2017
Supplement

Bega Cheese: Bidding to Bring Vegemite Back Home

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Lauren G. Pickle

In January 2017, the leadership team of Bega Cheese—the Australian dairy company—was considering a bid for Mondelēz International’s Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) grocery business which included several leading consumer brands (Vegemite—the iconic Australian spread,... View Details

2009
Case

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital (TN): Brief Case.

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

Finance, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), Capital Structure, Risk Assessment, Corporate Finance, Cash Flow, Valuation, Beta, North America, Energy, Oil and Gas, Cost of Capital, Cost of Equity, Discount Rate, Risk Premium,... View Details

Keywords: Capital Budgeting; Cost of Capital; Energy Industry

February 1998 (Revised January 1999)
Case

Digital Everywhere, Inc.

By: Paul A. Gompers

Presents a valuation problem in a fictitious firm, Digital Everywhere. Students have the opportunity to compare various discounted cash flow valuation models in an entrepreneurial firm. View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Valuation; Entrepreneurship

May 2016
Case

The Inexorable Rise of Walmart? 1988—2016

By: John R. Wells and Gabriel Ellsworth

In October 2015, Walmart surprised investors by announcing that it expected flat sales growth for 2015 and growth of only 3% to 4% over the coming three years. Profits would also fall due to significant investments in people and technology. The company’s stock price... View Details

Keywords: Asda; Costco; David Glass; Convenience Stores; Discount Retailing; Dollar Stores; Doug McMillon; E-commerce; Online Retail; General Merchandise; Grocery; Lee Scott; Mike Duke; Multichannel Retailing; Omnichannel; Neighborhood Market; Sam Walton; Sam's Club; Store Formats; Supercenter; Supermarket; Warehouse Clubs; Merchandising; Walmart; Wal-Mart; Globalized Firms and Management; Competitive Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Units; Business Divisions; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Business Organization; For-Profit Firms; Film Entertainment; Television Entertainment; Banks and Banking; Price; Profit; Revenue; Food; Global Range; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Global Strategy; Business History; Compensation and Benefits; Employees; Human Capital; Labor Unions; Wages; Business or Company Management; Goals and Objectives; Management Succession; Brands and Branding; Product Positioning; Distribution; Supply Chain; Supply Chain Management; Public Ownership; Problems and Challenges; Labor and Management Relations; Strategy; Adaptation; Business Strategy; Competition; Competitive Advantage; Diversification; Expansion; Segmentation; Information Technology; Internet; Mobile Technology; Online Technology; Web; Web Sites; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Distribution Industry; Banking Industry; United States; Arkansas; Bentonville

2010
Working Paper

Do Bonuses Enhance Sales Productivity? A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Bonus-Based Compensation Plans

By: Doug J. Chung, Thomas J. Steenburgh and K. Sudhir

We estimate a dynamic structural model of sales force response to a bonus based compensation plan. The paper has two main methodological innovations: First, we implement empirically the method proposed by Arcidiacono and Miller (2010) to accommodate unobserved latent... View Details

Keywords: Compensation and Benefits; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods; Salesforce Management; Motivation and Incentives

17 Dec 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Does Apple Anchor a Shopping Mall? The Effect of the Technology Stores on the Formation of Market Structure

Keywords: by Doug J. Chung, Kyoungwon Seo, and Reo Song; Retail; Technology

28 Aug 2023
Research & Ideas

How Workplace Wellness Programs Can Give Employees the Energy Boost They Need

While companies may tout their wellness programs as a way of investing in their employees’ well-being, many are overly focused on reducing healthcare costs, so they tend to offer step challenges and gym discounts that workers don’t have... View Details

Keywords: by Hise Gibson

September 2019 (Revised November 2019)
Case

Pinduoduo

By: Feng Zhu, Krishna G. Palepu, Bonnie Yining Cao and Dawn H. Lau

Founded in 2015 by serial entrepreneur, Colin Huang, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD) had become China’s fastest-growing e-commerce platform in history. PDD pioneered a new approach to online shopping that allowed shoppers to share products, invite friends to form shopping teams,... View Details

Keywords: Digital Platforms; Business Model; Innovation and Invention; Competitive Advantage; Expansion; Strategy; E-commerce

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