Publications

November 2023
Article

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam

We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the... View Details

Keywords: Term Premium; Exchange Rate; Currency Exchange Rate; Bonds

May 2008
Article

Excess Comovement of Stock Returns: Evidence from Cross-sectional Variation in Nikkei 225 Weights

By: Robin Greenwood

In the presence of limits to arbitrage, cross-sectional variation in periodic investor demand should be related to the degree of comovement of returns. I exploit the unusual weighting system of the Nikkei 225 index in Japan to identify cross-sectional variation in... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Investment; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Weight; Performance Expectations; Behavior; Japan

Article

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Price; Investment; Shipping Industry

05 May 2020
Research & Ideas

China Tariffs and Coronavirus a Double Hit to American Retailers

Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. “There is a demand shock from consumers buying less, and a supply chain disruption in addition to the tariffs, which only makes things worse.”... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

2019
Working Paper

Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt

By: Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao

Rising student debt is considered one of the creeping threats of our time. This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit the plausibly random debt discharge due to the inability of National Collegiate,... View Details

Keywords: Student Debt; Private Student Loans; Legal Settlement; Mobility; Debt Collection; Debt Relief; Borrowing and Debt; Personal Finance; Outcome or Result; United States

01 Feb 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks

Keywords: by Victoria Ivashina, David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein; Financial Services

Research Summary

Output and asset price fluctuations

What are the sources of business cycles? How are these shocks propagated in the economy? Why are their effects so persistent? How can we explain asset price fluctuations? How are shocks transmitted internationally?To study these questions, I have developed a series... View Details

March 2015
Article

Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

Changes in monetary policy have surprisingly strong effects on forward real rates in the distant future. A 100 basis point increase in the two-year nominal yield on a Federal Open Markets Committee announcement day is associated with a 42 basis point increase in the... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Interest Rates; Economics

2020
Working Paper

Automation and the Plight of Young Workers: Evidence from the Automation of Telephone Operation in the Early 20th Century

By: Daniel P. Gross and James J. Feigenbaum

Telephone operation was one of the most common jobs for young American women in the early 1900s. Between 1920 and 1940, AT&T adopted dial service in over half of U.S. telephone exchanges, automating away a legion of operators. We show that upon a city's adoption of... View Details

Keywords: Employment; Labor; Gender; Technology Adoption; History; Telecommunications Industry; United States

2019
Working Paper

The Effect of Payment Choices on Online Retail: Evidence from the 2016 Indian Demonetization

By: Chaithanya Bandi, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe and Zhiji Xu

The Indian banknote demonetization in 2016 was one of the most significant international events of that year. Overnight, 86% of Indian currency in circulation was declared invalid unless exchanged for new bills. The sudden and unexpected demonetization constituted a... View Details

Keywords: Cash On Delivery; Online Retail; Product Returns; Payment Methods; Digitization; Emerging Markets; Currency; Internet and the Web; Demand and Consumers; Retail Industry; India

August 2023 (Revised October 2023)
Case

Beyond the Barricades: Chile 2023

By: Debora Spar, Willis Emmons, Leonard A. Schlesinger and Ruth Costas

Chile, often considered among Latin America's greatest economic success stories, suffered a shocking wave of protests in October 2019, as its citizens demanded reforms across healthcare and education systems, and protested inequality and rising costs of living. As... View Details

Keywords: Government Administration; Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Social Issues; Wealth and Poverty; Public Opinion; Equality and Inequality; Public Administration Industry; Chile; Latin America; South America

Educators

Purchase

2023
Working Paper

Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes

By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter

We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Finance; Cryptocurrency; Fintech; Inflation; Portfolio Choice; Stimulus; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment

2019
Working Paper

Government Technology Policy, Social Value, and National Competitiveness

By: Frank Nagle

This study seeks to better understand the impact that government technology procurement regulations have on social value and national competitiveness. To do this, it examines the impact of a change in France’s technology procurement policy that required government... View Details

Keywords: Social Value; Competitiveness; Government Administration; Information Technology; Acquisition; Policy; Value

02 Jul 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Technology Innovation and Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations

Keywords: by Diego A. Comin, Mark Gertler & Ana Maria Santacreu; Technology

August 2015
Article

Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices

By: Pol Antràs and C. Fritz Foley

This paper analyzes the financing terms that support international trade and sheds light on how these terms shape the impact of economic shocks on trade. Analysis of transaction-level data from a U.S.-based exporter of frozen and refrigerated food products, primarily... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance; Financing and Loans; Trade

09 Nov 2009
Research & Ideas

Come Fly with Me: A History of Airline Leadership

competitive threats Changing consumer demands Low barriers to entry Many niche opportunities As I've noted above, leaders who are successful in industries over a long period of time have become skilled at either adapting to or influencing... View Details

Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert; Air Transportation

Forthcoming
Article

The Institutional Sources of Economic Transformation: Explaining Variation in Energy Transitions

By: Jared Finnegan, Phillip Lipscy, Jonas Meckling and Florence Metz

Why are some governments more effective in promoting economic change than others? We develop a theory of the institutional sources of economic transformation. Institutions can facilitate transformation through two central mechanisms: insulation and compensation.... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Business and Government Relations; Supply and Industry; Demand and Consumers; Transformation; Economic Systems; Climate Change