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      • May 2022
      • Case

      Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro Pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Middle East; Saudi Arabia
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!" Harvard Business School Case 722-399, May 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Are Experts Blinded by Feasibility?: Experimental Evidence from a NASA Robotics Challenge

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Zoe Szajnfarber, Jason Crusan, Michael Menietti and Karim R. Lakhani
      Resource allocation decisions play a dominant role in shaping a firm’s technological trajectory and competitive advantage. Recent work indicates that innovative firms and scientific institutions tend to exhibit an anti-novelty bias when evaluating new projects and... View Details
      Keywords: Evaluations; Novelty; Feasibility; Field Experiment; Resource Allocation; Technological Innovation; Competitive Advantage; Decision Making
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      Lane, Jacqueline N., Zoe Szajnfarber, Jason Crusan, Michael Menietti, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Are Experts Blinded by Feasibility? Experimental Evidence from a NASA Robotics Challenge." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-071, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      What's Next

      By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff
      Is there a typical long-term career path for people who become entrepreneurs through acquisition? What choices do searchers and investors make subsequent to their first search? The former searchers profiled here identified five common longer-term career paths and... View Details
      Keywords: Personal Development and Career; Entrepreneurship; Investment Portfolio; Decision Making; Financial Services Industry
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      Ruback, Richard S., and Royce Yudkoff. "What's Next." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Case 222-709, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?

      By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
      Thomas de Dreux-Brézé, the Head of Strategy and Project Management at Rawbank Congo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was perplexed as he reviewed annual adoption rates for the bank’s launch of Illico Cash 2.0. As the bank’s mobile money app, Illico Cash... View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Rural; Urban; Emerging Market; Mobile Technology; Finance; Money; Inflation and Deflation; Business Growth and Maturation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Demographics; Developing Countries and Economies; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Behavioral Finance; Currency; Banks and Banking; Commercial Banking; Financial Strategy; Rural Scope; Urban Scope; Innovation Strategy; Emerging Markets; Network Effects; Consumer Behavior; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Technology Adoption; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Congo, Democratic Republic of the
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Grace Headinger. "Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?" Harvard Business School Case 222-084, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      From GOP to NFT: Anthony Scaramucci and the Launch of Flatter NFT

      By: Lauren Cohen, Richard Ryffel and Grace Headinger
      Anthony Scaramucci, Managing Director of SkyBridge Capital, considered whether he should officially greenlight the launch of SkyBridge’s own NFT platform — Flatter NFT. He had led the investment firm to push first into Bitcoin and then Ethereum to make SkyBridge a... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startup; Fintech; Technology; Cryptocurrency; Web3; Business Startups; Volatility; Decision Making; Entertainment; Entrepreneurship; Investment; Strategic Planning; Adoption; Competitive Advantage; Technology Adoption; Finance; Currency; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; New York (city, NY)
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      Cohen, Lauren, Richard Ryffel, and Grace Headinger. "From GOP to NFT: Anthony Scaramucci and the Launch of Flatter NFT." Harvard Business School Case 222-085, May 2022.
      • May 2022 (Revised May 2024)
      • Case

      The Freedom Fund (A): Ending Modern Slavery

      By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Courtney Han
      The Freedom Fund founded in 2013 to end modern slavery had raised more than half its intended target (by 2025) of $200 million. In 2021, impressed by its decentralized-partnering style of operations, philanthropist MacKenzie Scott awarded the Fund a gift of $35 million... View Details
      Keywords: Social Issues; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Spending; Decisions; India; Thailand; Ethiopia
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      Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Courtney Han. "The Freedom Fund (A): Ending Modern Slavery." Harvard Business School Case 522-099, May 2022. (Revised May 2024.)
      • May 2022 (Revised October 2022)
      • Supplement

      The Freedom Fund (B)

      By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Courtney Han
      The Freedom Fund (B) case describes the management’s plan of how to use the windfall of $35 million granted by philanthropist Mackenzie Scott. The case also describes the process by which the decisions were arrived at. View Details
      Keywords: Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Spending; Decision Making
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      Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Courtney Han. "The Freedom Fund (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 522-100, May 2022. (Revised October 2022.)
      • May 2022
      • Case

      Executive Decision-Making at Zola

      By: Amy C. Edmondson and Michael Roberto
      In April 2020, Rachel Jarrett, President and COO of wedding technology company Zola, called a meeting with the organization’s key decision-makers. The company had previously launched three business expansions: a vendor marketplace, a wedding apparel division, and a... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Voting; Decision Choices and Conditions; Management Skills; Management; Management Style; Organizations; Organizational Culture; Technology Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States
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      Edmondson, Amy C., and Michael Roberto. "Executive Decision-Making at Zola." Harvard Business School Case 622-074, May 2022.
      • Article

      Act Like a Scientist: Great Leaders Challenge Assumptions, Run Experiments, and Follow the Evidence

      By: Stefan Thomke and Gary W. Loveman
      Though they’ve been warned for decades about the dangers of overrelying on gut instinct and personal experience, managers keep failing to critically examine—much less challenge—the ideas their decisions are based on. To correct this problem they need to think and act... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation and Management; Decision Making; Science; Leadership Style
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      Thomke, Stefan, and Gary W. Loveman. "Act Like a Scientist: Great Leaders Challenge Assumptions, Run Experiments, and Follow the Evidence." Harvard Business Review 100, no. 3 (May–June 2022): 120–129.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina

      By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
      Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Drug Treatment; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Outcome or Result; Argentina
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      Calonico, Sebastian, Rafael Di Tella, and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle. "Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30084, May 2022.
      • Article

      Present Bias Causes and Then Dissipates Auto-enrollment Savings Effects

      By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson and Peter Maxted
      Present bias causes procrastination, which leads households to stick with auto-enrollment defaults. However, present bias also engenders overconsumption. Separation from each employer generates a rollover of 401(k) balances to an individual retirement account (IRA)... View Details
      Keywords: Present Bias; Procrastination; Personal Finance; Decision Making; Social Psychology; Retirement
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      Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Peter Maxted. "Present Bias Causes and Then Dissipates Auto-enrollment Savings Effects." AEA Papers and Proceedings 112 (May 2022): 136–141.
      • April 2022
      • Case

      Pear Venture Capital

      By: Jo Tango and Alys Ferragamo
      Keith Bender, Principal at Pear Venture Capital, is working over the weekend to prepare for a Monday morning investment meeting. He has three startup pitch decks in front of him, and he must choose one to recommend at the meeting. He finds that each company has its... View Details
      Keywords: Seed Investing; Seed Financing; Startup; Decision Choices and Conditions; Presentations; Business Startups; Investment; Venture Capital; United States
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      Tango, Jo, and Alys Ferragamo. "Pear Venture Capital." Harvard Business School Case 822-097, April 2022.
      • April 2022 (Revised August 2022)
      • Case

      Conflicts of Interest at Uptown Bank

      By: Jonas Heese
      In 2013, two employees debated whether to blow the whistle on their employer, Bell Bank, after completing an internal review that revealed undisclosed conflicts of interest. Bell Bank’s Asset Management business disproportionately invested clients’ money in Bell Bank’s... View Details
      Keywords: Whistleblower; Whistleblowing; Mutual Funds; Conflicts Of Interest; Decision Making; Decisions; Judgments; Ethics; Moral Sensibility; Values and Beliefs; Finance; Financial Institutions; Banks and Banking; Financial Management; Investment; Investment Funds; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governance Compliance; Governance Controls; Policy; Law; Legal Liability; Social Psychology; Motivation and Incentives; Perception; Perspective; Trust; Financial Services Industry; North and Central America; United States
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      Heese, Jonas. "Conflicts of Interest at Uptown Bank." Harvard Business School Case 122-022, April 2022. (Revised August 2022.)
      • April 12, 2022
      • Article

      Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

      By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
      Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
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      Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
      • April 2022 (Revised April 2023)
      • Case

      Highland Park Wood Co. (Abridged)

      By: David E. Bell
      A major home builder wishes to purchase lumber (Southern pine). The builder wants delivery in six months but prefers to lock-in the price near current rates. The lumber wholesaler must decide on a pricing and sourcing strategy. Examples include: 1) buy & hold, 2) wait... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Goods and Commodities; Futures and Commodity Futures; Price; Forest Products Industry; Construction Industry
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      Bell, David E. "Highland Park Wood Co. (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 122-098, April 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
      • April–June 2022
      • Other Article

      Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'

      By: Edward McFowland III
      There has been a substantial discussion in various methodological and applied literatures around causal inference; especially in the use of machine learning and statistical models to understand heterogeneity in treatment effects and to make optimal decision... View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Treatment Effect Estimation; Treatment Assignment Policy; Human-in-the-loop; Decision Making; Fairness
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      McFowland III, Edward. "Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 1 (April–June 2022): 21–22.
      • 2022
      • Book

      Decision Leadership: Empowering Others to Make Better Choices

      By: Don A. Moore and Max H. Bazerman
      When we think of leaders, we often imagine lone, inspirational figures lauded for their behaviors, attributes, and personal decisions, and leadership books often reinforce that view. However, this approach ignores a leader’s mission to empower others. Applying decades... View Details
      Keywords: Empowerment Leadership; Leadership; Employees; Decision Making; Management Style
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      Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. Decision Leadership: Empowering Others to Make Better Choices. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S.

      By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons
      We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a U.S.-wide voter-level panel, 2008–18, we examine voters who relocate... View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Behavior; Geographic Location; Personal Characteristics; Situation or Environment; United States
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      Cantoni, Enrico, and Vincent Pons. "Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the U.S." American Economic Review 112, no. 4 (April 2022): 1226–1272.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      THEMIS: A Framework for Cost-Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li and Saksham Soni
      Since December 2019, the world has been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 150 million confirmed cases and 3 million confirmed deaths worldwide. To combat the spread of COVID-19, governments have issued unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs),... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Policy; Framework; Cost vs Benefits; Outcome or Result; United States; Germany; Brazil; Singapore; Spain
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, and Saksham Soni. "THEMIS: A Framework for Cost-Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions." Working Paper, April 2022.
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