Publications

Research Summary

Good cop, Bad Cop: Complementarities between Debt and Equity in Disciplining Management

Joint work with Alexander Gümbel, Saïd Business School and Lincoln College Oxford

In this paper we examine how the quantity of information generated about firm... View Details

September 2020
Teaching Note

TransDigm in 2017: The Beginning of the End or the End of the Beginning?

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 720-422. TransDigm was a highly acquisitive company that manufactured a wide range of highly engineered aerospace parts for both military and commercial customers. Over the ten years ending in 2016, its stock price had increase ten times,... View Details

August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

December 2019
Article

Brokers and Order Flow Leakage: Evidence from Fire Sales

By: Andrea Barbon, Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni and Augustin Landier

Using trade-level data, we study whether brokers play a role in spreading order flow information. We focus on large portfolio liquidations, which result in temporary drops in stock prices, and identify the brokers that intermediate these trades. We show that these... View Details

Keywords: Predatory Trading; Back Running; Fire Sales; Brokers; Stocks; Price; Information; Knowledge Dissemination; Ethics

August 2008
Article

Economic Links and Predictable Returns

By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini

This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details

Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

October 2019 (Revised October 2019)
Case

Epic Games

By: Andy Wu and Christopher Zhang

Epic Games entered a stagnant market with its PC-games digital storefront in 2018, in the context of incumbent competitors such as Steam, its meteoric rise via Fortnite, and imminent industry shifts in gaming distribution. On the surface, Epic Games Store’s competitive... View Details

Keywords: Industry Analysis; Video Games; Platforms; Comparative Advantage; Growth Strategy; Innovation Focused Strategy; Pricing Strategy; Strategy; Competition; Growth and Development Strategy; Innovation Strategy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Digital Platforms; Technology Industry

October 2008 (Revised September 2011)
Supplement

PepsiCo's Bid for Quaker Oats (D)

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

Describes the final deal struck between PepsiCo and Quaker Oats, including the terms of collared consideration. Summarizes stock price announcement effects. View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Announcements; Stocks; Price; Risk Management; Negotiation Deal; Valuation; Food and Beverage Industry

2016
Working Paper

Managing Reputation: Evidence from Biographies of Corporate Directors

By: Ian D. Gow, Aida Sijamic Wahid and Gwen Yu

We examine how corporate directors manage reputation through disclosure choices in biographies in proxy statements filed with the SEC. Directors are more likely to withhold information about directorships at firms that experienced adverse events. Withholding such... View Details

Keywords: Director Monitoring; Strategic Disclosure; Management; Corporate Disclosure; Reputation

SSRN

October 1999 (Revised January 2000)
Case

W. R. Hambrecht & Co: OpenIPO

By: Andre F. Perold and Gunjan D. Bhow

OpenIPO is a new mechanism for pricing and distributing initial public offerings. The system, which is based on a Dutch auction, represents an attempt by the investment bank W.R. Hambrecht + Co. to change the manner in which IPOs are underwritten. The case provides a... View Details

Keywords: Investment Banking; Debt Securities; Stocks; Initial Public Offering; Price; Information; Auctions; Agreements and Arrangements; Distribution; Internet; Netherlands

March 2000
Case

Dell Computer Corporation: Share Repurchase Program

By: George C. Chacko and Luis M. Viceira

Dell Computer Corp. announced a share repurchase program shortly after a significant stock price drop. In this announcement, the company also states that it will use options contracts. This case looks at the options transactions and how they relate to Dell's employee... View Details

Keywords: Financial Strategy; Stock Options; Employee Stock Ownership Plan; Computer Industry

January 2023
Case

EKI Energy Services: One Billion Carbon Credits

By: George Serafeim

Within nine months from the time of its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in April of 2021, EKI Energy Services (EKI) shares had increased by more than 8,000%. Equally explosive was the growth of the company’s revenues and Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation... View Details

Keywords: Carbon Credits; Carbon Emissions; Growth; Business Analysis; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Valuation; Climate Change; Accounting; Valuation; Transition; Renewable Energy; Analysis; Product Positioning; India

August 2000 (Revised July 2002)
Case

Sara's Options

By: Peter Tufano, Brian J. Hall and Joshua Musher

This case describes the pay packages offered to Sara Becker, a graduating MBA student, including detailed information about two stock option packages (one of which is an indexed option package). She gathers the information and attempts to compare those compensation... View Details

Keywords: Stock Options; Compensation and Benefits; Recruitment; Information; Valuation

2025
Working Paper

Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China

By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin

We show analysts at government-controlled brokerage firms serve as a market stabilization tool in China. Using earnings forecasts from 2005–2019, we find government-brokerage analysts issue relatively more optimistic—yet less accurate and timely—forecasts during... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Market Stabilization; Government Ownership; Coordinated Economies; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets

SSRN

October 2007
Article

Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy

Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information

Editorial

Why CEOs Should Share Their Long-Term Plans with Investors

By: Christina Rehnberg, George Serafeim and Brian Tomlinson

Rather than requiring less short-term information, the key to combating short-termism is to encourage companies to share more information about their long-term plans. Analysis of companies that have done so suggests that long-term plans are not mere marketing... View Details

Keywords: CEO; Investor Relations; Disclosure; Long-term Growth; Investing; Business and Shareholder Relations; Strategy; Corporate Disclosure

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Forthcoming
Article

Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein

We present evidence that pressure to maximize short-term stock prices and earnings leads banks to increase risk. We start by showing that banks increase risk when they transition from private to public ownership through a public listing or an acquisition. The increase... View Details

Keywords: Ownership Type; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Banks and Banking; Transition; Price

Research Summary

Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing and Liquidity (with Ronnie Sadka)

We document a close link between mispricing and liquidity by investigating stocks with high analyst disagreement. Previous research finds that these stocks tend to be overpriced, but prices correct down as uncertainty about earnings is resolved. We conjecture that one... View Details

May 2020 (Revised November 2021)
Supplement

Valuing Peloton

By: E. Scott Mayfield

Peloton Interactive, a well-known unicorn in the connected fitness space, had gone public with a market capitalization of over $8.0 billion. In the weeks following its public debut, Peloton’s stock price fell by over 25%. Taylor Knox, a stock analyst and enthusiastic... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Disruptive Innovation; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Price; Valuation; Entertainment and Recreation Industry