Stock Market Expectations - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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March–April 2014
Article

The Low-Risk Anomaly: A Decomposition into Micro and Macro Effects

By: Malcolm Baker, Brendan Bradley and Ryan Taliaferro

Low beta stocks have offered a combination of low risk and high returns. We decompose the anomaly into micro and macro components. The micro component comes from the selection of low beta stocks. The macro component comes from the selection of low beta countries or... View Details

Keywords: Low Volatility; Beta; Portfolio Construction; Market Efficiency; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Asset Management

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December 2014
Article

Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments

By: Jennifer Brown and Dylan B. Minor

We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect—the stronger the expected future... View Details

Keywords: Elimination Tournament; Dynamic Contest; Contest Design; Effort Choice; Betting Markets; Competitive Advantage; Game Theory

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March 2024 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Masterpiece for the Masses: The First Art Exchange ARTEX

By: Lauren Cohen, Anastasiya Siroochenko (Siro) and Sophia Pan

Yassir Benjelloun-Touimi, CEO of ARTEX, aspired to marry the world of art and finance. Hoping to promote transparent, fractionalized ownership of renowned artwork, the founder had spent years contemplating the birth of an art stock market. This exchange would allow... View Details

2011
Teaching Note

UFIDA (D) (TN)

By: F. Warren McFarlan, Ping He, Xiohua Wu and Lijuan Liu

This case describes the financing decisions of a software company at difference stages of its development. Started from 1988 as an individual business, along with the "Reform and Open" policy of China, the firm has experienced tremendous growth, and has become a... View Details

Keywords: Accounting; Computer Software; Emerging Markets; Financial Strategy; IPO; Investments; China; Applications and Software; China

June 2023
Article

Why Is Dollar Debt Cheaper? Evidence from Peru

By: Bryan Gutiérrez, Victoria Ivashina and Juliana Salomao

In emerging markets, a significant share of corporate loans are denominated in dollars. Using novel data that enables us to see currency and the cost of credit, in addition to several other transaction-level characteristics, we re-examine the reasons behind dollar... View Details

Keywords: Emerging Market Corporate Debt; Currency Mismatch; Liability Dollarization; Carry Trade; Currency; Emerging Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Interest Rates; Peru

January 2015 (Revised October 2016)
Case

onefinestay: Building a Luxury Experience in the Sharing Economy

By: Jill Avery, Anat Keinan and Liz Kind

onefinestay was a two-sided marketplace that offered high-end home rentals to travelers who sought a more authentic and local experience than a typical upscale hotel might provide. After five years of rapid growth, it was time to do a comprehensive analysis of the... View Details

October 2014 (Revised June 2016)
Case

MasterCard: Driving Financial Inclusion

By: Sunil Gupta, Rajiv Lal and Natalie Kindred

MasterCard CEO Ajay Banga was investing significant time and attention to increase financial inclusion among individuals with historically no access to banking or financial services in countries around the world with large underserved populations. The effort included... View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Financial Services; Financial And Social Return; Financial Inclusion; Strategic Management; South Africa; Nigeria; Ajay Banga; Marketing Strategy; Social Marketing; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; South Africa; Nigeria

21 Jul 2022
Research & Ideas

Did Pandemic Stimulus Funds Spur the Rise of 'Meme Stocks'?

research. “So, what drove those run-ups? To me, that's the kind of question that is relevant for any investor.” And its answer is relevant to policymakers as they face an unexpected side effect of the trillions of dollars of economic stimulus: That money may have fed... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services

2025
Working Paper

Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Asset Pricing; Valuation; Measurement and Metrics; Stocks

September–October 2013
Article

The Dynamic Advertising Effect of Collegiate Athletics

By: Doug J. Chung

I measure the spillover effect of intercollegiate athletics on the quantity and quality of applicants to institutions of higher education in the United States, popularly known as the "Flutie Effect." I treat athletic success as a stock of goodwill that decays over... View Details

Keywords: Choice Modeling; Entertainment Marketing; Heterogeneity; Panel Data; Structural Modeling; Rights; Analytics and Data Science; Higher Education; Ethics; Consumer Behavior; Advertising; Sports; Advertising Industry; Education Industry

Summer 2013
Article

Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression

By: Tom Nicholas and Anna Scherbina

Using new data on market-based transactions we construct real estate price indexes for Manhattan between 1920 and 1939. During the 1920s prices reached their highest level in the third quarter of 1929 before falling by 67% at the end of 1932 and hovering around that... View Details

Keywords: Property; Market Transactions; Price; Value; Financial Crisis; Investment; Real Estate Industry; New York (state, US)

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07 Sep 2006
Working Paper Summaries

Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios

Keywords: by Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira

October 2013
Article

Ad Revenue and Content Commercialization: Evidence from Blogs

By: Monic Sun and Feng Zhu

Many scholars argue that when incentivized by ad revenue, content providers are more likely to tailor their content to attract "eyeballs," and as a result, popular content may be excessively supplied. We empirically test this prediction by taking advantage of the... View Details

Keywords: Ad-sponsored Business Models; Media Content; Blog; Revenue Sharing; User-generated Content; Platform-based Markets; Blogs; Business Model; Digital Platforms; Commercialization; Digital Marketing

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Research Summary

Explaining Returns With Cash-Flow Proxies (with Tuomo Vuolteenaho)

Stock returns are correlated with contemporaneous earnings growth, dividend growth, future real activity, and other cash-flow proxies. The correlation between cash-flow proxies and stock returns may arise from association of cash-flow proxies with one-period expected... View Details

02 Sep 2015
Research & Ideas

Explaining China's Crash

After more than a decade of nearly can’t-miss growth, China’s stock market began a precipitous summer slide that has spooked investors worldwide. In July, the Shanghai composite index dropped 15 percent from... View Details

Keywords: by Christina Pazzanese; Financial Services

November 2018 (Revised February 2019)
Case

Israel at 70: Is it Possible to (re)Brand a Country?

By: Elie Ofek and Sarah Gulick

In the spring of 2018, Israel was set to celebrate its 70th anniversary. While there was much to rejoice in reaching this milestone, the country’s brand image internationally was far from ideal. Past efforts to impact perceptions of Israel, spearheaded by the Ministry... View Details

Keywords: Branding; Brand Management Of Places; Nation Branding; Brand Positioning; Public Diplomacy; Marketing Communication; Brands and Branding; Marketing Communications; Perception; Change; Israel

November 2000 (Revised January 2003)
Case

Yahoo!'s Stock-Based Compensation

By: Paul M. Healy and Jacob Cohen

Amy Maislos, an investor in Internet and technology companies, was excited to read that Yahoo! had reported a positive net income for 1998 operations. During the late 1990s, stock prices of Internet companies had risen rapidly even though most companies were reporting... View Details

Keywords: Stock Options; Internet and the Web; Financial Statements; Corporate Disclosure; Business Earnings; Earnings Management; Information Technology Industry

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January 2020
Case

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd.

By: John R. Wells and Benjamin Weinstock

In 2019, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. (Lead) was the largest supplier of lithium-ion rechargeable battery manufacturing equipment in the world. Based in Wuxi, China, the company generated RMB 3.9 billion ($557 million) in revenues in 2018, up from RMB 175... View Details

Keywords: Lithium-ion Batteries; Electric Vehicles; Government Subsidies; Industry Dynamics; Markets; Change; Strategy; Decision Making; Manufacturing Industry; China

February 1996
Case

USX Corporation

By: Stuart C. Gilson and Jeremy Cott

A large diversified steel and energy firm is pressured by a corporate raider to spin off its steel business in order to increase its stock price. As an alternative to the spinoff, management proposes replacing the company's common stock with two new classes of... View Details

Keywords: Restructuring; Stocks; Valuation; Financial Institutions; Cash Flow

January 2008 (Revised March 2009)
Case

Fortress Investment Group

By: Malcolm Baker, Carlos M. Galvez and James Quinn

CEO Wesley Edens and the five Fortress principals are contemplating a move unprecedented in the industry: becoming the first hedge fund and private equity firm to complete an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This case examines potential reasons for a leading... View Details

Keywords: Private Equity; Public Equity; Initial Public Offering; Investment Funds; Going Public; Valuation; Financial Services Industry

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