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      Decision Choice And UncertaintyRemove Decision Choice And Uncertainty →

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      • 2016
      • Book

      Managing in the Gray: Five Timeless Questions for Resolving Your Toughest Problems at Work

      By: Joseph L. Badaracco
      Part of a manager's job is making tough calls, and the hardest challenge can be resolving "gray area” problems—situations in which analysis of the numbers, facts, and data fails to provide a clear answer. Gray areas test not only managers’ skills but also their... View Details
      Keywords: Business or Company Management; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Badaracco, Joseph L. Managing in the Gray: Five Timeless Questions for Resolving Your Toughest Problems at Work. Harvard Business Review Press, 2016.
      • September 2016 (Revised March 2017)
      • Module Note

      Strategy Execution Module 3: Using Information for Performance Measurement and Control

      By: Robert Simons
      This module reading explains how managers use information to control critical business processes and outcomes. The analysis begins by illustrating how managers use information to communicate goals and track performance. Then the focus turns to the choices that managers... View Details
      Keywords: Management Control Systems; Implementing Strategy; Strategy Execution; Organization Process; Feedback Model; Innovation; Uses Of Information; Big Data; Benchmarking; Decision Making; Information; Performance Evaluation; Analytics and Data Science
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      Simons, Robert. "Strategy Execution Module 3: Using Information for Performance Measurement and Control." Harvard Business School Module Note 117-103, September 2016. (Revised March 2017.)
      • August 2, 2016
      • Article

      Uncalculating Cooperation Is Used to Signal Trustworthiness

      By: Jillian J. Jordan, Moshe Hoffman, Martin A. Nowak and David G. Rand
      Humans frequently cooperate without carefully weighing the costs and benefits. As a result, people may wind up cooperating when it is not worthwhile to do so. Why risk making costly mistakes? Here, we present experimental evidence that reputation concerns provide an... View Details
      Keywords: Social Evaluation; Experimental Economics; Moral Psychology; Cooperation; Reputation; Decision Making
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      Jordan, Jillian J., Moshe Hoffman, Martin A. Nowak, and David G. Rand. "Uncalculating Cooperation Is Used to Signal Trustworthiness." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 31 (August 2, 2016): 8658–8663.
      • Article

      Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

      By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
      We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details
      Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Joos, Peter R., Joseph D. Piotroski, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 3 (September 2016): 645–663.
      • 2016
      • Working Paper

      Experimental Evidence on Policies Aimed at Closing the Gender Gap in Willingness to Guess on Multiple-Choice Tests

      By: Katherine Baldiga Coffman
      Research has shown that women skip more questions than men on multiple-choice tests with penalties for wrong answers. We propose and test five policy changes aimed at eliminating this source of gender bias in test scores. Our data show that simply removing the penalty... View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Gender
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      Coffman, Katherine Baldiga. "Experimental Evidence on Policies Aimed at Closing the Gender Gap in Willingness to Guess on Multiple-Choice Tests." Working Paper, August 2016.
      • August 2016
      • Article

      The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

      By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John
      Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details
      Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Barasz, Kate, Tami Kim, and Leslie K. John. "The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 53, no. 4 (August 2016): 597–607.
      • June 24, 2016
      • Other Article

      Why Brexit Is a Big Deal

      By: John A. Quelch
      The consequences of yesterday's vote by the British people to leave the European Union will be far-reaching, but there is no reason for global markets to panic.
      Brexit is a vote against the European Union. Once heralded as the engine of a one-for-all and... View Details
      Keywords: British Vote; Brexit; European Union; Impact; Historical Result; Governing Rules, Regulations, And Reforms; Disruption; Transition; Volatility; Decision Making; Globalization; Government and Politics; History; Leadership; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy; European Union; Republic of Ireland; United Kingdom
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      Quelch, John A. "Why Brexit Is a Big Deal." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (June 24, 2016). (Republished by Forbes.com on June 24, 2016 at: http://www.forbes.com/sites/hbsworkingknowledge/2016/06/24/why-brexit-is-a-big-deal/#2c5e5c587297.)
      • 2016
      • Other Teaching and Training Material

      Organizational Behavior Reading: Decision Making

      By: Francesca Gino, Max Bazerman and Katherine Shonk
      This Reading argues that decision making is systematically flawed and introduces methods to improve decision-making effectiveness. The Essential Reading section covers the rational decision-making model and three important ideas that challenge it: Herbert Simon's... View Details
      Keywords: Game Theory; Decision Making
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      Gino, Francesca, Max Bazerman, and Katherine Shonk. "Organizational Behavior Reading: Decision Making." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Publishing 8383, 2016. Electronic.
      • May 20, 2016
      • Comment

      World Health Organization Lacks Leadership to Combat Pandemics

      By: John A. Quelch
      When it comes to emergency preparedness for pandemics, the World Health Organization is falling short. It has not provided prompt and clear leadership to the world in combating either the Ebola or Zika viruses. Its leadership has been low energy, its representatives... View Details
      Keywords: Global Health; World Health Organization; World Bank; Pandemics; Emergency Preparedness; Experience and Expertise; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Communication Strategy; Nonverbal Communication; Framework; Governance; Government and Politics; Health; Management; Practice; Problems and Challenges; Projects; Risk and Uncertainty; Human Needs; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Welfare or Wellbeing; Journalism and News Industry; Journalism and News Industry; Journalism and News Industry; Journalism and News Industry; Journalism and News Industry; Journalism and News Industry; Journalism and News Industry; Journalism and News Industry; Africa; Asia; Europe; Latin America; North and Central America; South America; West Indies
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      Quelch, John A. "World Health Organization Lacks Leadership to Combat Pandemics." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (May 20, 2016).
      • May 2016
      • Article

      When Performance Trumps Gender Bias: Joint Versus Separate Evaluation

      By: Iris Bohnet, Alexandra van Geen and Max Bazerman
      We examine a new intervention to overcome gender biases in hiring, promotion, and job assignments: an "evaluation nudge," in which people are evaluated jointly rather than separately regarding their future performance. Evaluators are more likely to focus on individual... View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Selection and Staffing; Decision Choices and Conditions; Performance; Gender
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      Bohnet, Iris, Alexandra van Geen, and Max Bazerman. "When Performance Trumps Gender Bias: Joint Versus Separate Evaluation." Management Science 62, no. 5 (May 2016): 1225–1234.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management

      By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
      In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's... View Details
      Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets
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      Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
      • March 2016 (Revised January 2023)
      • Teaching Note

      Carla Ann Harris at Morgan Stanley

      By: Lakshmi Ramarajan
      This case follows Carla Ann Harris, an African-American executive on Wall Street, from her childhood to the eve of her 20th year at Morgan Stanley. In addition to her professional identity as an investment banker, Harris is also an accomplished gospel singer, an... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Identity; Personal Development and Career; Success; Values and Beliefs; Social Entrepreneurship; Financial Services Industry
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      Ramarajan, Lakshmi. "Carla Ann Harris at Morgan Stanley." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 416-040, March 2016. (Revised January 2023.)
      • March 2016 (Revised March 2022)
      • Teaching Note

      Express Scripts: Promoting Prescription Drug Home Delivery (A) and (B)

      By: John Beshears
      The pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) sector processes prescription drug claims on behalf of companies that offer a prescription drug benefit to their employees. The case associated with this teaching note follows Bob Nease, chief scientist at Express Scripts, as he... View Details
      Keywords: Pharmaceuticals; Prescription Drugs; Pharmacy Benefit Manager; PBM; Healthcare; Behavioral Economics; Choice Architecture; Active Choice; Service Delivery; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Distribution Channels; Health Care and Treatment; Service Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Beshears, John. "Express Scripts: Promoting Prescription Drug Home Delivery (A) and (B)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 916-047, March 2016. (Revised March 2022.)
      • Article

      Representative Democracy and the Implementation of Majority-Preferred Alternatives

      By: Katherine Baldiga Coffman
      In this paper, we contrast direct and representative democracy. In a direct democracy, individuals have the opportunity to vote over the alternatives in every choice problem the population faces. In a representative democracy, the population commits to a candidate ex... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Systems; Voting; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Coffman, Katherine Baldiga. "Representative Democracy and the Implementation of Majority-Preferred Alternatives." Social Choice and Welfare 46, no. 3 (March 2016): 477–494.
      • February 2016
      • Case

      Express Scripts: Promoting Prescription Drug Home Delivery (A)

      By: John Beshears, Patrick Rooney and Jenny Sanford
      The pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) sector processes prescription drug claims on behalf of companies that offer a prescription drug benefit to their employees. This case follows Bob Nease, Chief Scientist at Express Scripts, as he considers methods to promote home... View Details
      Keywords: Pharmaceuticals; Prescription Drugs; Pharmacy Benefit Manager; PBM; Healthcare; Behavioral Economics; Choice Architecture; Active Choice; Service Delivery; Decision Choices and Conditions; Health Care and Treatment; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Compensation and Benefits; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Beshears, John, Patrick Rooney, and Jenny Sanford. "Express Scripts: Promoting Prescription Drug Home Delivery (A)." Harvard Business School Case 916-026, February 2016.
      • February 2016 (Revised March 2022)
      • Case

      Express Scripts: Promoting Prescription Drug Home Delivery (B)

      By: John Beshears, Patrick Rooney and Jenny Sanford
      The pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) sector processes prescription drug claims on behalf of companies that offer a prescription drug benefit to their employees. This case follows Bob Nease, Chief Scientist at Express Scripts, as he considers methods to promote home... View Details
      Keywords: Pharmaceuticals; Prescription Drugs; Pharmacy Benefit Manager; PBM; Healthcare; Behavioral Economics; Choice Architecture; Active Choice; Health Care and Treatment; Service Delivery; Decision Choices and Conditions; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Compensation and Benefits
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      Beshears, John, Patrick Rooney, and Jenny Sanford. "Express Scripts: Promoting Prescription Drug Home Delivery (B)." Harvard Business School Case 916-040, February 2016. (Revised March 2022.)
      • February 2016 (Revised July 2017)
      • Case

      A Nation Divided: The United States and the Challenge of Secession

      By: David Moss and Marc Campasano
      Americans elected Abraham Lincoln as the nation's first Republican president in November of 1860. Northern political leaders had formed the Republican Party only a few years before, in large measure to combat the spread of slavery. Southerners had long been wary of... View Details
      Keywords: Governance; War; Government and Politics; History; United States
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      Moss, David, and Marc Campasano. "A Nation Divided: The United States and the Challenge of Secession." Harvard Business School Case 716-048, February 2016. (Revised July 2017.)
      • January 26, 2016
      • Article

      Hiding Personal Information Reveals the Worst

      By: Leslie K. John, Kate Barasz and Michael I. Norton
      Seven experiments explore people's decisions to share or withhold personal information and the wisdom of such decisions. When people choose not to reveal information—to be "hiders"—they are judged negatively by others (experiment 1). These negative judgments emerge... View Details
      Keywords: Disclosure; Transparency; Policy-making; Privacy; Information; Corporate Disclosure; Decision Choices and Conditions; Trust
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      John, Leslie K., Kate Barasz, and Michael I. Norton. "Hiding Personal Information Reveals the Worst." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 4 (January 26, 2016): 954–959.
      • January 2016 (Revised December 2024)
      • Case

      Airbus Versus Boeing (A)

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell
      Looks at the development of the competitive actions between Airbus and Boeing from 1992 to 2006. Begins with the question of whether Airbus and Boeing should collaborate on the development of a VLCT (Very Large Commercial Transport) or whether Airbus should develop... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Cooperation; Strategy; Air Transportation Industry
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Airbus Versus Boeing (A)." Harvard Business School Case 716-436, January 2016. (Revised December 2024.)
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France

      By: Vincent Pons
      This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in François Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized... View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; France
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      Pons, Vincent. "Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-079, January 2016. (American Economic Review (forthcoming).)
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