Risk And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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October 1996 (Revised April 2004)
Case

Eric Wood (A)

By: Myra M. Hart

Describes the early career of an MBA who went to work in a small business, bought the company, and is now contemplating an acquisition to expand the business. The issues involve personal/business finance and financial risk, as well as valuation and financial... View Details

Keywords: Personal Development and Career; Business Growth and Maturation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Risk and Uncertainty

April 1992 (Revised February 1996)
Case

CFM International, Inc.

In April 1987 the management team of CFM International, Inc. (CFMI) was considering developing a new jet engine for the Airbus A340. The withdrawal of a competitor's engine had created an unforeseen opportunity for CFMI to re-enter a competition it had apparently lost... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Partners and Partnerships; Investment; Globalized Markets and Industries; Manufacturing Industry; Air Transportation Industry

June 2011
Article

Segmenting the Base of the Pyramid

By: V. Kasturi Rangan, Michael Chu and Djorjiji Petkoski

The bottom of the economic pyramid is a risky place for business, but decent profits can be made there if companies link their financial success with their constituencies' well-being. To do that effectively, you must understand the nuances of people's daily lives, say... View Details

Keywords: International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Value Creation; Human Needs; Income; Poverty; Profit; Relationships; Economics; Segmentation

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December 2017 (Revised January 2018)
Case

Alltech

By: David E. Bell and Natalie Kindred

Alltech was a Lexington, Kentucky–based producer of supplements for animal feed, with revenues of over $2 billion (projected to reach $3 billion in 2018), sales in 120 countries, 5,000 employees, and 100 manufacturing plants worldwide. For nearly four decades, Alltech... View Details

07 Sep 2019
Op-Ed

Even for Non-Believers, These Are the Next Steps on Climate Change

We can’t know what will happen, but we have a good sense for what might or could happen. Don’t wait for the one moment of indisputable truth to emerge; act on the odds presented in the information available today in sea rise curves, flood maps, View Details

Keywords: by John Macomber

August 2011 (Revised February 2012)
Background Note

A Note on Water

By: Robert G. Eccles, Amy C. Edmondson, George Serafeim and Sarah E. Farrell

This note provides background on the complex issues regarding the supply and consumption of water and how this natural resource is at increasing risk, resulting in significant economic, political and environmental issues. View Details

Keywords: Economics; Government and Politics; Demand and Consumers; Supply and Industry; Risk and Uncertainty; Natural Environment; Pollutants; Environmental Sustainability

January 1998 (Revised May 1999)
Case

General Scanning, Inc. (A)

By: H. Kent Bowen, Sean McClenaghan and Charles Tillen

General Scanning, Inc. was founded by Jean Montagu and Pierre Brosens, two MIT mechanical engineers with an interest in developing innovative products based on the early application of lasers. They invented proprietary technology for laser beam positioning and scanning... View Details

Keywords: Transition; Entrepreneurship; Management Practices and Processes; Product Development; Strategic Planning; Research and Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Commercialization; Manufacturing Industry

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March 2013 (Revised July 2014)
Case

Bay Partners (A)

By: Josh Lerner and Lauren Barley

In April 2010, Salil Deshpande has recently resigned from Palo Alto, California-based Bay Partners (Bay) where he had been a general partner. Although Deshpande had built a successful track record at the venture firm, he resigned with two other Bay general partners as... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Venture Capital; Conflict Management; Partners and Partnerships; Resignation and Termination; Policy; Management Teams; Financial Services Industry; California

October 2012
Case

Monsanto

By: Ray A. Goldberg

Monsanto CEO Hugh Grant must guide his global agribusiness technology company into an uncertain future where food security, food safety, sustainability, and climate change will all impact the global food system. View Details

Keywords: Technology; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology; Food; Social and Collaborative Networks; Global Strategy; Agribusiness; Globalized Markets and Industries; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry

1 Mar 2013 - 2 Mar 2013
Conference Presentation

The Value of Flexibility in Baseball Roster Construction

By: Timothy Chan and Douglas S. Fearing

Drawing inspiration from the theory of production flexibility in manufacturing networks, we provide the first optimization-based analysis of the value of positional flexibility (the ability of a player to play multiple positions) for a major league baseball team in the... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Design; Production; Resource Allocation; Groups and Teams; Adaptation; Sports

2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

June 2005 (Revised January 2006)
Case

Investment Policy at the Hewlett Foundation (2005)

By: Luis M. Viceira

In early January 2005, Laurance Hoagland Jr., VP and CIO of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (HF), and his investment team met to finish their recommendations to the HF Investment Committee for a new asset allocation policy for the foundation's investment... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Public Equity; Globalization; Investment; Property; Risk Management; Asset Management; Financial Services Industry

February 1988
Case

Crown Cork & Seal Co., Inc. (Condensed)

By: Richard G. Hamermesh and Richard S. Rosenbloom

A condensed version of Crown Cork & Seal Co., Inc. The principal changes are the elimination of details about the early history of the company and condensation of the final section, Outlook for the Future. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Industry Growth; Environmental Sustainability; Business Strategy; Trends; Manufacturing Industry

2008
Book

Predictable Surprises

By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior

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January 1988 (Revised March 1995)
Supplement

Digital Equipment Corp.: The Endpoint Model (C1)

By: David A. Garvin

To follow Digital Equipment Corp.: The Endpoint Model (B2). The division has just received a request for dramatically increased production. If it complies with the request, it will have to expedite production, override the MRP II system and the planned schedule. Should... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Markets; Production; Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Situation or Environment; System

January 2021
Teaching Note

Shellye Archambeau: Becoming a CEO

By: Tsedal Neeley

Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 420-071 and 420-073. View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Race; Gender; Leadership Style; Risk and Uncertainty; Change; Prejudice and Bias; Decision Making; Personal Development and Career; Technology Industry; California

Research Summary

Research

The founding and expansion of new firms is central to innovation and economic growth, but the determinants of a new idea’s success are difficult to ascertain. The decision to form a new firm and its ultimate outcome are impacted by ownership structure, financing... View Details

05 Nov 2001
Research & Ideas

Venture Capital Goes Boom—or Bust?

Uncertainty about the future Information gaps "Soft" assets Volatility of current market conditions All companies must grapple with these difficulties, but young, emerging enterprises are particularly vulnerable to them, as... View Details

Keywords: by Paul A. Gompers & Josh Lerner

July – August 2011
Article

Managing the Multiple Dimensions of Risk: Part I of a Two-Part Series

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes

Keywords: Management; Risk and Uncertainty

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March 2024
Simulation

'Storrowed'

By: Mitchell Weiss

The game was built to accompany "Storrowed": A Generative AI Exercise, available through Harvard Business Publishing. The game adds a timing element to "Storrowed" and enables the teacher to reward teams for strong prompts or penalize teams for believing AI... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty

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