Publications

2018
Working Paper

Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler

Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details

Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
Supplement

Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin

Keywords: Present Value; Forecasting; Expansion; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

May 2018
Article

Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca

Data from digital platforms have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification and enable new measures of how neighborhoods change in close to real time. Combining data on businesses from Yelp with data on gentrification from the Census, Federal Housing... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, And Changes; Geographic Location; Local Range; Transition; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction

16 Oct 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Core Earnings? New Data and Evidence

Keywords: by Ethan Rouen, Eric So, and Charles C.Y. Wang

2021
Article

An Empirical Examination of Sell-Side Brokerage Analysts' Published Research, Concierge Services, and High-Touch Services

By: David A. Maber, Boris Groysberg and Paul M. Healy

This paper uses a proprietary panel dataset to categorize and quantify the activities that sell-side brokerage analysts use to build and sustain their network of buy-side client relations. We then examine the marginal impact of these activities on key analyst outcome... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Analyst Ratings; Brokerage Commissions; Earnings Forecasts

October 2014
Case

Honeywell and the Great Recession (A)

By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg

CEO Dave Cote spent six years turning around an ailing Honeywell and in 2008 Cote and his team face a new challenge: how to respond to the Great Recession. Cote does not want to give up the gains he made in transforming and unifying Honeywell. With a fall-off in... View Details

Keywords: Layoffs; Furloughs; Downsizing; Work Sharing; Short Time Work; Recessions; Earnings Forecast; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Cost Management; Executive Compensation; Crisis Management; Financial Crisis; Manufacturing Industry

Educators

December 2003 (Revised February 2008)
Background Note

Law and Legal Reasoning: An Introduction

By: Henry B. Reiling

Gives prominence to Mr. Justice Holmes' Prediction Theory of the law as a practical--and by analogy to forecasting in finance and other functional areas of business--comfortable, and familiar way for businesspeople to think about the law. Law is defined as a forecast... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Law; Theory

Educators

01 Jun 2023
News

3-Minute Briefing: Jeremy Grantham (MBA 1966)

change, geopolitics, declining fertility rates, bad agricultural practices, high levels of debt, shortages of labor and raw materials, and more. You can’t predict the stress... View Details

Keywords: climate change; finance; sustainability; prediction; Finance

February 2019
Case

Miroglio Fashion (A)

By: Sunil Gupta and David Lane

Francesco Cavarero, chief information officer of Miroglio Fashion, Italy’s third-largest retailer of women’s apparel, was trying to bring analytical rigor to the company’s forecasting and inventory management decisions. But fashion is inherently hard to predict. Can... View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Demand Forecasting; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Operations; Management; Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry

Educators

1997
Chapter

On the Dynamics of Forecasting in Technologically Complex Environments: The Unexpectedly Long Old Age of Optical Lithography

By: Rebecca M. Henderson

Keywords: History; Information Technology; Situation or Environment; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Technology Industry

05 Feb 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Stereotypes and Belief Updating

Keywords: by Katherine B. Coffman, Manuela Collis, and Leena Kulkarni

11 Jul 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Channeled Attention and Stable Errors

Keywords: by Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein

June 2010 (Revised July 2011)
Teaching Note

Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit? (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Patricia Girardi

Teaching Note for 4217. View Details

Keywords: Market Research; Forecasting; Consumer Marketing; New Product Marketing; Product Lines; Merchandising; Branding; Research; Marketing Channels; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Brands and Branding

July 2019
Article

I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Ioannis Evangelidis

People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen... View Details

Keywords: Self-other Difference; Social Perception; Inference-making; Preferences; Consumer Behavior; Prediction; Prediction Error; Decision Choices and Conditions; Perception; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

2016
Book

Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services

By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai

This book bridges the gap between what academics know, and what innovation stakeholders—from managers, to investors, to analysts, to consumers—need to know about how new products and services are expected to perform in the marketplace. The book develops a compelling... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Technology Diffusion; New Products; Customer Lifetime Value; Monetization Strategy; Social Influence; Innovation Adoption; Forecasting Demand; Commercialization; Marketing Strategy; Practice; Customer Value and Value Chain; Research; Innovation and Management; Technology Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development

June 18, 2014
Blog Post

How to Kill Quarterly Earnings Guidance

By: Gabriel Karageorgiou, Daniela Saltzman and George Serafeim

Keywords: Forecast; Short-termism; Sustainability; Earnings Management; Competitive Advantage

2021
Working Paper

When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju

Research Summary

Overview

Associate Professor Yael Grushka-Cockayne's research and teaching activities focus on data science, forecasting, project management, and behavioral decision-making. View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Project Management; Forecasting; Behavior And Behavioral Decision Making

2019
Working Paper

Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta

Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability, or their responsiveness to a... View Details

Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit

SSRN